Why Ruto-DP clash could split Kenya Kwanza

The continued insistence on the Deputy President position by ODM, coupled with the unyielding stance of UDA proponents, now threatens to derail pre-election coalition talks, raising the risk of a disintegration of the broad-based government.

President William Ruto finds himself in a political bind, torn between rewarding loyalty by retaining Deputy President Kithure Kindiki as his running mate, appeasing the vote-rich Mt Kenya region, or courting new allies whose demands, if granted, could cost him crucial support from the region.

UDA allies from Mt Kenya have already taken a firm stand, asserting that Kindiki must remain Ruto’s running mate ahead of the 2027 elections. Any attempt to displace him, they warn, could prompt the region to walk out of the coalition arrangement.

Meanwhile, ODM, eager to leverage Ruto’s urgency for a second term, has escalated its demands, insisting that the Deputy President position be ringfenced by the constitution. The party has made it clear that this is a non-negotiable priority.

On Friday, ODM party leader Oburu Oginga reignited the demand, rattling other coalition partners. “Our stand now is that we are going ahead with the negotiations with UDA, but we are not going to be negotiating from a point of weakness. The position of the Deputy President is one of our demands. It is not the only issue, but it is one of them. Whether this is disturbing some people or rubbing them the wrong way is not our concern,” Oburu told Siaya County MCAs.

His stance reflects the resolution of ODM’s Linda Ground faction, which is leading the push for a formal coalition with UDA. Names reportedly being considered for the DP slot include Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and Treasury CS John Mbadi. “Our worry is our people, unity and what we as a party are going to get. We want to be in power in the future,” added Oburu.

The hardline positions leave President Ruto walking a tightrope. Dropping Kindiki risks alienating Mt Kenya voters, while retaining him could jeopardise ODM’s support, a bloc Ruto hopes to consolidate for his 2027 ambitions.

Kindiki himself has reaffirmed his claim on the 2027 ticket, asserting that his seat is secure. Leaders from his region have also rallied behind him. “Do not be unsettled by small things you hear here and there. We are masters of politics and we do not speak carelessly, we speak at the right time,” the Deputy President said during an impromptu inspection of the Maragwa-Ichagaki-Gamburi road. “I am the Deputy President of the Republic of Kenya. That position is not about to change, today or in the days ahead. After this position, I can only move forward,” he added.

Tharaka Nithi Governor Muthomi Njuki, also Vice Chair of the Council of Governors, warned that Mt Kenya’s support for President Ruto hinges on Kindiki remaining second in command.

He cautioned that any attempt to replace him could prompt the region to reassess its political alignment, describing ODM’s push for the position as provocative.

Former Meru ODM chairman Mike Makarena echoed the sentiment, insisting that the region will accept nothing less than the DP slot. “ODM must be satisfied with the positions they already hold in the broad-based government.

While they can seek more, the DP position is for Mount Kenya. Kindiki has earned the confidence and support of the region and the ideal situation is him remaining as Ruto’s Deputy President,” Makarena said.

Political pundits note that Ruto is walking a tightrope. How he balances demands from ODM and UDA will likely shape his trajectory ahead of the 2027 elections.

With former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s exit, ODM’s support base is now largely a swing vote, a reality Ruto must navigate carefully.

“Ruto will face a tough balancing act. The only position those clinging to government care about is Deputy President. Remove it and there could be a total crossover,” said Embakasi North MP James Gakuya.

Fissures within ODM further complicate the situation, even as Ruto seeks to bring the party into his fold. “If they don’t think long term, they may negotiate for positions now, but future discussions should focus on ideas,” observed Tana River Senator Danson Mungatana.

As the drama unfolds, it remains uncertain whether Ruto can satisfy both Mt Kenya and ODM, with consequences set to ripple across Kenya’s political landscape.