Sifuna's moment, Luhya surge as 2027 beckons

Kenyan politics has been on a knife-edge since 2013. That election was not just another contest; it was existential. For Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, it was do-or-die under the shadow of the ICC. In 2022, it was do-or-die again for Ruto. Power in Kenya, once cornered, fights back with everything it has. 

Through all those cycles, Raila Odinga or Tinga always seemed to carry a Plan B. Many bananas, many slips. He knew he would always be in government by being invited by the winning candidate - Poleni sana. 

So as 2027 approaches, the sharper question is not just who will win, but for whom is it do-or-die? Recent history typifies how agency shapes outcomes more than ideology. If the 2013 trajectory holds, Ruto will fight like a man who cannot afford defeat. But history is not destiny. Kenyan voters can choose to end that 2027 script. To bury it. And the only way to bury it is to create a 2002 moment, a united front, everyone against the incumbent, just as the opposition rallied to end the KANU era. 

Yet beneath the noise, a new current is rising, and it has electrified the Mulembe nation. Edwin Sifuna is enjoying his juogi, and what a moment. Across Western, there is unmistakable Luhya excitement. For a community long accused of political fragmentation, Sifuna’s meteoric rise feels like vindication. Young, articulate, sharp on national TV, fearless at the podium, he is commanding space in a way not seen since the days of Michael Wamalwa and Masinde Muliro. 

For many in the Mulembe nation, especially those young who do not remember or relate with Wamalwa and Muliro in their prime, this is the first time they see their own son dominating national discourse with confidence and clarity. Alongside George Natembeya, Sifuna symbolises renewal - a generational shift. 

And here is what makes Sifuna particularly dangerous in Kenyan politics: he appeals to the poor, middle class, and Gen Z. Such a voting bloc can be potent if they decide to make their voices count at the ballot. He comes from a humble background. No corruption baggage. No scandal cloud. In a country fatigued by graft and dynasties, that narrative resonates deeply. He is young enough to embody change but seasoned enough to command respect in Parliament and on national platforms. That combination is rare. 

But moments like this are delicate. Sifuna must resist the temptation of premature declarations. No rush for a seat. No ego-driven gambits. This is a time to build a movement, not chase a position. The spotlight is intoxicating, but history is ruthless to those who peak too early.  Let’s be honest. Sifuna does not yet command a consolidated Luhya voting bloc. Western remains politically fluid. And in Kenyan politics, a solid ethnic basket still matters. The youth may love him, but love must translate into voter registration and turnout. 

He also faces another risk: envy. Rapid rise breeds silent enemies. And if anything were to happen politically to him, eyes would instinctively turn to “the system.” Yet ironically, the system, including Ruto, would lose more by neutralising him. The real danger would likely come from those threatened by his speed and shine. ODM, truth be told, needs Sifuna more than he needs ODM. When figures like Oscar Sudi mock ODM, they are not merely joking; they are signaling discomfort with a leadership lacking the masses. Disruption unsettles power. 

So, what next? Will Ruto consolidate and defend his turf at all costs?  Will opposition forces recreate a 2002-style tsunami? Will ambitious figures like Babu Owino accelerate their presidential calculations? 

And could we see unexpected alliances, even unconventional running mate options, in a desperate bid to reconfigure the map? 2027 may not just be another election. It may determine whether Kenya continues the high-stakes “do-or-die” cycle of 2013 or finally resets its political culture.  For now, Mulembe nation is energised. The Gen Z and the middle class are watching. The youth are restless. And Sifuna stands at the intersection of all three. How he handles this moment may not just define his career. It may shape the Western political landscape for a generation.