Why Hassan Joho wants to be Ruto's 2027 running mate

Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho has held eight meetings with Coast leaders in the past two months, signalling his relentless pursuit to become President William Ruto’s running mate in the 2027 elections.

Critics have described Joho’s manoeuvres as political posturing, especially after he branded vehicles with his image alongside the president’s during ODM rallies at the Coast, effectively declaring himself the deputy president in waiting. But the optics were only part of his strategy.

At the rallies, MPs, senators and governors from the Coast echoed the same message: ODM should back Joho as Ruto’s running mate. “We want to ensure that Joho is on the negotiating table,” said Jomvu MP Badi Twalib. Kilifi South MP Ken Chonga was more explicit. “The running mate position will prepare Joho to be the presidential candidate in 2032,” he said, a position backed by Likoni MP Mishi Mboko.

ODM Party Leader Dr Oburu Oginga has already acquiesced to one of the Coast leaders’ demands by appointing Joho to the team negotiating a potential ODM-UDA pre-election pact.

Joho’s recent manoeuvres to secure greater influence in any UDA-ODM deal, should Ruto be re-elected, and to consolidate control over Coast politics, have been described as double-edged. While the president’s receptiveness to Joho’s strategy is unclear, reports suggest Ruto has deployed Sports CS Salim Mvurya to counter Joho and weaken Senate Speaker Amason Kingi’s Pamoja Africa Alliance (PAA).

Mvurya, sidelined following Joho’s entry into government, has regained prominence, successfully attracting MPs Samuel Ngozi Rai (Kinango) and Kenga Mpe (Rabai) from PAA to UDA. Former Malindi MP Aisha Jumwa, who had joined PAA only three months earlier, has also returned to UDA, weakening Kingi’s party, which has resisted Ruto’s push to fold into the ruling party.

“I’m here to witness the defection of MP Mpe and his people to UDA. They have decided to join the winning team,” said Mvurya after the defections.

Meanwhile, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga has also shown interest in the running mate slot, potentially putting her in direct competition with Joho. Her position as ODM chair could give her an edge in the internal contest.

Governance analyst Javas Bigambo said Mvurya’s re-emergence in Coast politics was by design, part of Ruto’s broader 2027 strategy. “President Ruto will not want CS Mvurya submerged by strong Coastal voices emerging from ODM,” he told KTN.

Political analysts argue that Joho’s sudden push for Ruto’s running mate position is a calculated strategy to elevate his influence within the already fragile ODM leadership, which he has eyed since 2014. After an 18-month sabbatical following the Supreme Court’s upholding of Ruto’s win, Joho returned from the US, asserting it was time for him to take over ODM affairs.

He had skipped the Azimio la Umoja demonstrations over the high cost of living, citing personal reasons. Upon his return at a Mombasa ODM event, Joho told Raila Odinga directly that it was time to pass the torch. “I joined ODM as a young man. I’ve supported Raila in cash and kind during good and bad times. Is it bad for me to ask our father to endorse me?” he said. Displaying his characteristic bravado, Joho added, “It is time for a coastal to run for the presidency in ODM.”

Joho’s ambitions date back to 2014, when he and MPs like the then Budalangi MP Ababu Namwamba sought to wrest the party’s mantle from senior leaders. The plan was thwarted by the so-called ‘Men in Black,’ which current Makadara MP George Aladwa described as an effort to “save the party.”

In 2017, Joho attempted to expand his popularity into Luo Nyanza, Raila’s stronghold, but suspended the effort after his rallies were disrupted, citing an “assassination attempt.” In the lead-up to the 2022 polls, it took repeated interventions to convince Joho to step aside from challenging Raila for the ODM presidential ticket.

Analysts such as Dr Ahmed Yahya note that Joho sees himself as Raila’s heir apparent. “This push for the running mate position is likely a prelude to challenging Oburu for ODM leadership,” he said. Joho’s political future, Yahya adds, hinges on ODM remaining intact and his ability to ascend to its top ranks.

After being approached by Ruto to join his government, Joho’s resignation as ODM Deputy Party Leader complicated his 2027 strategy. “He is still influential in the Coast, but working with Ruto places him in a delicate position,” said ODM delegate John Obonyo.

“After relinquishing the deputy post, Joho is no longer a delegate and thus cannot be elected party leader. He is now an ordinary member.” Yet Joho insists he is qualified. “If the party has decided on Oburu, who am I to oppose? One day, people will call me president and that will be through ODM,” he said at a rally in Siaya. Critics contend that Joho’s influence has waned. “Unlike in the past, when he thrived in the politics of criticism, he now must deliver in key portfolios like maritime and shipping, central to the Coast economy,” said Julius Ogogoh, Executive Director of the Centre for Litigation Trust.

Ogogoh and Dr Yahya agree that Joho’s rise was fuelled by Raila’s influence, but with the ODM leader absent from frontline politics, Joho’s hold on the Coast is under threat.