ODM under siege after parties invade its strongholds

Once a strong and formidable party, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is now under siege due to the open internal divisions at the top and the infiltration of new and existing parties that now threaten the party’s dominance in its strongholds.

Even former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s fairly young party Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), appears to be outshining ODM in areas like Kakamega if recent by-elections can be used as a yardstick.

Gachagua says: “Our party is the newest kid on the block and it has scooped seats in the recent by-elections. This means that Kenyans have embraced the party and by 2027, it will be the party to beat.”

While ODM was reeling from the by-election bruises, some of its key leaders who hold key positions at the National Executive Council (NEC) have formed political parties which they will use in next year’s polls.

Two ODM NEC members, Saboti MP Caleb Amisi and former Kitutu Masaba MP Timothy Bosire, who is the party’s Treasurer, have been linked to the registration of Peoples’ Renaissance Movement (PRM) and United National Congress (UNC) respectively.

The PRM is targeting the youth constituency and the western region and its diaspora, while the UNC is seeking to tear into ODM’s influence among the Gusii community, which may also complicate the numerical strength in parliament after 2027, given that former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Maitangi has also rekindled the Jubilee party's fortunes in Kisii and Nyamira.

In a phone interview, Bosire told the Standard that UNC was currently engaged in a mass recruitment drive and once they hit the required 1000 members in the thirty-five counties, the party will thereafter embark on opening offices across the country.

“The party will join the United Opposition because our ideologies match and it will reflect the national image," said Bosire, who has not been seen at recent ODM meetings despite holding a senior position in the party.

Amisi, who is the only elected MP under the ODM ticket in Trans Nzoia county, last year warned that he would not seek re-election on the party's ticket if the working agreement with the Kenya Kwanza government does not come to an end.

 “I am a member of ODM, elected for five years. If ODM continues collaborating with William Ruto, then I will not seek re-election in that party. But if it gets out and retraces its steps back to its roots, then we will agree,” he said.

He is among the youthful leaders who have joined Edwin Sifuna-Babu Owino's ODM faction that is opposed to the broad-based government. The group is now operating under the Linda Mwananchi tag and is resonating very well with young people across the country in its campaign against the Linda Ground ODM faction spearheaded by Gladys Wanga-Oburu Oginga.

The PRM says it is seeking to offer an alternative to established political parties, with the movement focusing on fighting tribalism, tackling unemployment, and reforming the educational system, with a stated goal of achieving a "rebirth" in Kenyan politics. 

 With the incursion of new and existing parties to the ODM's former strongholds and other political maneuvers by the parties, such as the recent purge against dissenters such as Amisi, among other anti-broad-based leaders, political experts warn that the move risks reducing ODM to a predominantly Luo party, a move that may weaken its national influence and do little to secure Ruto’s re-election.

“An injured ODM will not have any say at the negotiation table with the government, and this means they won't get the power they are looking for. ODM has traditionally been a coalition amassing support from three voting blocs, namely Ukambani, Western, and Nyanza regions. With the purge of key leaders from regions other than Nyanza, it is significantly alienating its support base,” said Naituli.

He argues that the Ukambani region has closed ranks with the opposition and the Western region is largely opposed to the broad-based government, factors that undermine ODM and also make it less credible to both the President and the opposition.”

 Aware of the impending ramifications as a result of the loss of the numerical strength, the ODM parliamentary group yesterday sounded a warning to the UDA party ahead of their pre-election talks, maintaining that they would not negotiate on their parliamentary strength.

 “We want to increase our number in the next general election from what we have today, and we are telling any party that we are associating with, any party in this country that wants to associate with us, our parliamentary numbers are not negotiable. “We can negotiate on anything, but not on our parliamentary strength,” National Assembly Minority leader Junet Mohammed said after yesterday’s PG.

Going by the recent by-elections where ODM lost its key seats, the 20-year old party is now facing a bleak future with some of its leaders now forming their political outfits to chart their own political paths.

In the just concluded by-election in the West Kabras Member of County Assembly (MCA) race, the ODM candidate trailed the pack with only 30 votes, while the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) emerged the winner after its candidate Elphas Shalakha garnered 3317.

Even Gachagua’s fairly young party Democracy for Citizens Party's (DCP)  candidate Bramwel Wasike Khaemba managed to get 2,640 votes.  Nivah Musa Khisa of the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) came a distant third after securing 65 votes; also in the race was Shivoko Masini of the Democratic National Alliance (DNA).

DCP deputy party leader Cleophas Malala says the party had replaced ODM in Western and was soon going to beat the UDA party in the next year’s polls, saying the results of the by elections was a major win for them.

“We entered this race as an emerging force, yet we successfully outperformed seasoned political giants. By garnering significantly more support than established parties like ODM, which managed only 30 votes, we have proven that the people of Kabras West are looking for a new direction and fresh leadership,” he noted.

He said DCP proved that it was not a peripheral player, but a primary contender, especially in the Mt Kenya region, even as it makes inroads into other areas like Western, where DAP-K's George Natembeya was recently polled as the most popular leader in the region. The ODM  party appears to have lost all the other seats it held, especially in the Western, Maa, and Nairobi region

DCP’s David Wanyoike Warui won the MCA seat in Kariobangi North with 2,282 votes, while the ODM candidate, Michael Ouma Majua, finished third with 1,351 votes. The seat fell vacant following the death of former MCA Joel Munuve, who was elected under the sponsorship of ODM.

In Narok Township, another seat previously held by ODM slipped away after Douglas Twala Masikonde of DCP won with 6,007 votes, beating UDA’s candidate. The ward had been considered an ODM stronghold before the death of MCA Lucas Kudate, who had been elected on an ODM ticket.

DCP candidate Aduda Okwiri secured a victory in the Kisa East Ward by-election in Kakamega County with 1,952 votes, which was considered a major win for the party outside its primary stronghold.

 Gachagua interpreted his party’s win in Maa and Nairobi regions as a paradigm shift in the region’s politics, saying the entry of his party gave the existing party sleepless nights, while the party’s Deputy Party leader, Cleophas Malala, maintained that the party’s performance in Western region shows it was a party to beat in next year’s polls.