Is Sifuna eating Lusaka's lunch in western Kenya?

For decades now, the Western region has been a critical swing block, a “bride” pursued by every serious suitor for the presidency across the years. Today, that courtship has entered a volatile new phase.

At the centre of this maelstrom are two men with vastly different mandates: Homeboy Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, the firebrand ODM Secretary General whose rising popularity is threatening to rewrite the region’s political script and Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka, the seasoned technocrat-turned-politician tasked by President William Ruto to secure a 2027 foothold in the Mulembe nation.

The question now echoing from the bustling markets of Bungoma to the lush tea estates of Kakamega is: Has the Sifuna wave complicated Lusaka’s mission to deliver a second term for President Ruto?

Lusaka, a man known for his calm demeanor and administrative prowess, remains publicly unfazed. As the official coordinator for President Ruto’s re-election bid in Western Kenya, the border county’s boss views the political landscape through a lens of pragmatism rather than populist fervour.

“The President has done quite well in his first term,” Lusaka said in an interview with The Standard, leaning back with the confidence of a man who believes the numbers are on his side.

“He has many development projects that he has personally initiated in the region, unlike previous presidents. I have no problem selling his name and re-election agenda because the residents also love him a lot as their next-door neighbour.”

Lusaka’s strategy is built on the foundation of the “UDA muscle.” He points to the revival of sugar factories, infrastructure upgrades, and the inclusion of Western region leaders in key government positions as the currency that will hand Ruto a second term. In his view, the “Sifuna Wave” is a mere distraction, a noisy interruption to a serious developmental journey.

However, the ground beneath the governor seems to be shifting. In his own backyard of Bungoma, fresh blood legislators who seem to identify with the new wave are not just questioning the UDA narrative, they are actively dismantling it.

Jack Wanami Wamboka of Bumula and Majimbo Kalasinga, the MP for Kabuchai have emerged as the most vocal proponents of the Sifuna move which they believe is the future. Their argument is simple: the Luhya people  who make one of Kenya’s most populous people are tired of being kingmakers for other communities and are ready to produce a king of their own.

Political humiliation

“Right now in Western Kenya, the only chorus that our people understand is Sifuna,” says Kalasinga. “Anyone who goes against this will be unpopular very fast and will suffer a political humiliation come 2027 elections.”

Wamboka goes a step further, dismissing the 2032 succession plans often floated by Kenya Kwanza insiders.

“Other leaders in Western Kenya have been talking about running for the presidency in 2032 because they are scared of President Ruto. Let them even plan for 2052, but Sifuna is our presidential candidate in 2027!”

The duo represents a growing faction of leaders who believe that Lusaka’s mission is not just tricky, but fundamentally out of sync with a youthful, restless electorate that is seeing Sifuna as their generational standard-bearer.

To understand why the Sifuna surge is so potent, one must look back at the giants who previously unified the region. Western Kenya has always responded to leaders who possess a certain “intellectual charisma” combined with a stubborn streak of independence.

Masinde Muliro: The late doyen of Western politics was a man of immense principle. He didn’t just rule the region; he gave it a conscience. Muliro’s ability to stand up to colonialists in his youth and later the Kiambu dominated Kanu excesses in the 60s and 70s later resurfacing during the second liberation struggle created a template for the independent mined, intellectually endowed and fearless son of Western region.

The man who took over the Muliro torch, Michael Kijana Wamalwa emerged to be a double dose of the Muliro spirit. He took the mantle to the national stage, working with other gifted leaders that had served Jomo Kenyatta and Daniel Arap Moi administrations crafting and convening the National Rainbow coalition dream of 2002. Kijana, loved by the press because of his tone and diction in his English speeches and other conversations, proved that a leader from the Western region could be a good break from the Mt Kenya and Rift valley hegemony.

Youth leader in the region Benson Musungu argues that the 2027 election will be a “generational audit.”

“The old guard, led by Lusaka, is still playing the 1990s game of patronage. Sifuna is playing the game of the future. The reason MPs like Wamboka are joining him is because they see where the votes are. Lusaka’s work is not just tricky; it is becoming an impossible mission.”

As it stands now, Western Kenya is a house divided by two competing visions. On one floor, Lusaka is meticulously arranging the furniture of development, hoping that tangible results like the revival of Nzoia Sugar and new tarmac will secure President Ruto’s tenure. He bets on the “silent majority” who value stability and State resources.

On the other floor, Sifuna is throwing open the windows and calling for a revolution. His supporters, led by Wamboka and Kalasinga, are no longer content with being “coordinated” by Lusaka. They want to be led by Sifuna.

The Sifuna wave has undoubtedly complicated Lusaka’s mission. It has forced the governor to defend a presidency at a time when regional nationalism is peaking. If Lusaka cannot find a way to neutralize the Sifuna factor, he may find himself a general without an army when the 2027 bells finally ring.

In the land of Muliro and Wamalwa, the battle for the soul of the Mulembe nation has only just begun. And this time, the next-door neighbour might find that the fence has grown much higher than he anticipated.

Observers see in Sifuna a modern reincarnation of the two men. Both who expired while he was still hanging on his mother’s apron strings. Like Wamalwa, he is an eloquent intellectual who is comfortable on the national stage. Like Muliro, he is unafraid of a fight that is based on principle. This historical resonance makes him a formidable opponent for Lusaka in the region, who is seen by some as too closely tied to the establishment.

Political commentator and communication lecturer Herman Manyora believes that Sifuna has transcended being just a politician.

“Sifuna is no longer just a senator. He is a movement. He has captured the imagination of the youth who feel ignored by the current administration”.  He says that Lusaka is trying to sell a product, Ruto, to a market that is increasingly looking for a homegrown alternative. If Sifuna maintains his current momentum, Manyora says, he will make the region ungovernable for the UDA machinery.

Bungoma political activist Isaac Wanjekeche sees a disconnect between Lusaka’s office and the grassroots.

“Lusaka is relying on the ‘neighbour’ narrative—that Ruto is one of us. But Sifuna is telling the people that being a neighbour isn’t enough; we need to be the owners of the house. That message is spreading like wildfire.”

Social justice advocate Catherine Wanyonyi believes that Sifuna is a fresh bout of energy that is favourable to the new generation which also takes care of the gender issue.

“What Sifuna brings is energy. The women and youth in Western are tired of the same old promises about sugar and roads. They want a leader who speaks their language of defiance against the high cost of living. Sifuna does that; Lusaka, by virtue of his role, cannot.”

Political science lecturer Susan Namulanda notes what she calls the strategic difficulty Lusaka faces.

“Lusaka’s job is to be a diplomat for the President. But politics in Western Kenya is rarely diplomatic. It is visceral. Sifuna’s wave is emotional, and you cannot fight an emotional wave with a list of development projects.,” Dr Namulanda says.

As it turns out, Lusaka’s confidence isn’t merely political theatre, It is anchored in a series of multi-billion shilling “anchor projects” designed to transform Western Kenya into a Kenya Kwanza stronghold. 

Lusaka argues Ruto has provided a market for the 490,000 tones of cane currently available from locals.