Oburu faces test as party heads to explosive NDC

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party, which has survived the test of time to become one of the formidable political forces in the country, is facing a defining week with possible implications for its future as the planned National Delegates Convention (NDC) looms.

While some believe the meeting will be the first step to revamping the party that the late Raila Odinga built through blood, sweat and tears, others believe the meeting is the farewell party and a last supper for the party in its traditional form.

Observers believe the outcome of the meeting could deepen internal cracks and the writing is on the wall as a section of ODM leaders allies to party leader openly intensify the drums of divisions.

The meeting presents Oburu with the first major test in his leadership even as several insiders continue to express reservations over his leadership and the push by his allies to weaken ODM by kicking out perceived rebels.

Yesterday, a number of ODM insiders told Sunday Standard that intense lobbying has been ongoing for delegates to ratify a number of decisions that are being fronted for the NDC.

This, they say, will be done by acclamation and that all the plans that are in place have the blessings of the party’s National Executive Council as well as their partners who are helping fund part of the party’s activities.

However, that pursuit is facing significant challenges as some of the party’s stalwarts pursue a different path in ideology. The issues fueling divisions ahead of the NDC include the planned official removal and replacement of the sacked Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, giving Oburu the greenlight to begin formal pre-election talks with President Ruto’s UDA and strengthening the party’s grassroots support.

Party insiders told Sunday Standard that there is tension within the party ahead of the gathering and claim that there are fears what the future holds for the party as divisions continue to unravel.

"There are several factions and some regions are also rallying to push for their specific interests. Both Western and Coast regions are lobbying for more power within the party and they want their regions to be prioritized in any pre-election talks," says an ODM MP. The legislator told The Sunday Standard that they were optimistic of striking a neutral ground, adding that there are talks taking place in the background to avert a crisis.

"Oburu is facing a tough moment because of various interests. We will give him the mandate to talk with Ruto but the push for deputy presidency is a priority for both Western, Nairobi and the Coast," said the MP.

A delegate from Kisumu claimed that senior leadership has promised to cater for their transport and allowances as part of the move to ensure that they endorse proposals that will be shared with them at the NDC. He said they will leave Kisumu on Wednesday and attend another meeting on Thursday ahead of the NDC.

The developments are akin to the 1997 Ford Kenya rally that happened after the death of its leader and Raila’s father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

At the time, Raila had been tussling with the late Kijana Wamalwa for the leadership of Ford Kenya. The echoes of that feud appears to be reflecting on the current feud within ODM as a group of younger politicians pushes to grab the torch from Oburu’s hands.

At the core of the NDC is the planned replacement of Sifuna and punishing perceived errant members believed to be going against the party’s position. This team include Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Deputy Party leader Godfrey Osotsi and Siaya Governor James Orengo. The faction, however, are also planning a parallel rally to counter Oburu’s NDC the same day.

But as this happens, the cracks within the party are glaring as the fears of a split continue to grow. At the Coast, ODM leaders and operatives led by Mining CS Hassan Joho appears to be pulling in a different direction as they continue with their push to be fronted to deputize President William Ruto. Similarly, leaders from Kakamega are also lobbying for the same slot and wants that as a guarantee from Oburu as he gets the nod to conclude talks with Ruto.

The high-stakes meeting comes at a time when ODM, long seen as one of Kenya’s most formidable opposition parties under late Raila, is grappling with shifting political alliances, generational pressure, and questions about its future direction.

Analysts who spoke to The Standard say the NDC presents both an opportunity for renewal and a risk of fragmentation, depending on how key issues are handled.

“This is not just another routine delegates’ conference. It is a moment of reckoning. ODM must decide whether it is transitioning into a modern, institutional party or remaining personality-driven around late Raila,” says William Onyonje, a political analyst cum advocate.

Onyonje says that the outcome of this NDC will weaken ODM’s position in opposition.

“The purpose of the NDC will be to declare Oburu as the official party leader. We know how history plays out. In the year 1994, when Jaramogi Oginga Odinga died, he was in Ford Kenya as the chair together with Wamalwa Kijana and Raila Odinga where Raila was the son of the chair Jaramogi, and they held an NDC that brought chaos. It’s the same thing that is repeating today with ODM,” said Onyonje.

Onyonje adds that whatever Dr Oburu is doing, the broad base is the one that is benefiting, and if Oburu is ratified as the party leader, there will be a lot of chaos, thus weakening ODM.

He says ODM needs to accommodate the interests of everybody and speak in one voice and go back to their vision and values.

The escalating struggle for control of the party has taken a dramatic twist after the Linda Mwananchi faction announced it will hold a parallel NDC on March 27.

According to Onyonje, the NDC will test whether ODM has built structures strong enough to outlive its founding leader.

“The strength of any political party lies in its ability to institutionalise leadership. If ODM can demonstrate a clear succession framework and empower emerging leaders, it will come out stronger. If not, it risks internal rivalry and gradual decline.” said Onyonje.

At the centre of the anticipated debates is the question of leadership renewal, with a growing faction within the party pushing for generational change.

Younger leaders are said to be seeking a more prominent role in shaping ODM’s future, arguing that the party must evolve to remain politically relevant.

That push, analysts say, could either energise the party or trigger divisions.

“There is always tension between continuity and change. If the process is well-managed and inclusive, it could revitalise ODM and broaden its appeal, especially among young voters. But if factions feel sidelined, it could lead to fallout,” said Martin Atandi.

ODM has, in recent months, faced subtle but growing internal dissent, particularly at the grassroots level, where some leaders have expressed concerns about decision-making processes and perceived centralisation of power.

The NDC is expected to address these grievances, alongside constitutional amendments within the party, restructuring of key organs, and a possible redefinition of its political strategy ahead of the 2027 General Election.

“ODM has historically been the anchor of opposition politics in Kenya,” said communication consultant Barrack Muluka.

“But that position is no longer guaranteed. The NDC must clarify whether the party intends to consolidate opposition forces or chart an independent path.”

Muluka added that ambiguity on alliances could weaken ODM’s bargaining power in future political negotiations.

He says the NDC is being convened in the middle of a political storm in the party. It is not clear if the notice convening it has followed the party’s constitution and the Political Party’s Act.

"What is clear is that the SG, who is recognized by the law, did not issue the notice. So, who did, and did they follow the law, as it applies when the SG fails or refuses to issue the notice? If the convening has not followed the law, that will add more fuel to the fire,"says Muluka.

He adds; The business that they propose to transact around Babu Owino, Edwin Sifuna, and Winnie Odinga is itself both fractious and divisive. It is likely to leave the party thoroughly wounded. 

"Let’s just say that ODM’s dalliance with Ruto has been poisonous. It has placed the party’s best years behind it."

"The party’s recent engagements and perceived soft stance towards the government have also sparked debate among supporters, with some questioning whether ODM is still firmly in opposition."

This perception, analysts argue, could significantly influence the tone and outcomes of the NDC.

“Political parties survive on clarity of identity. If ODM fails to clearly define its ideological and political position, it risks alienating its base,” he says.

This week, Homa Bay Town MP Opondo Kaluma claimed that they will use the NDC to kick out errant members.