How ODM was handed to Ruto in a silver platter by appointing Oburu party leader

A faction of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), led by the new party leader Oburu Oginga,  on Friday announced that the party will enter into negotiation talks with President William Ruto ahead of the 2027 polls. Even then, the party honchos have already started campaigning for President William Ruto’s re-election.

The Cabinet Secretaries drawn from the ODM party have already begun Ruto’s re-election campaign in earnest, while MPs sponsored by the party—who benefited from parliamentary positions—have elbowed out UDA-allied MPs in praising the President, reasons which critics and analysts associate with ODM’s weaknesses ahead of its pre-election talks.

Those who downplay the upcoming negotiations between UDA and ODM observe that the ODM party has no grounds to bargain with the ruling party, as the party was ceded to Ruto a long time ago.

Seemingly a ‘willing seller’, Oburu and the ODM praise team leaning towards Ruto’s re-election agenda have relegated the party’s power pitch to a Deputy President ask. Therefore, the truth started to take shape during the Special Delegates Convention (SDC) meeting.

Endorsing Oburu as the party leader, by the party’s constitution, means installing him as the ODM presidential candidate for 2027. Technically, ODM will not be fielding a presidential candidate—not even Oburu.

A meeting held in Transmara in December last year at Ruto’s home, spearheaded by the President himself, is said to have sealed ODM’s fate, which included removing Sifuna and other anti-broad-based leaders.

Some of the leaders, including Suba South MP Caroli Omondi, have now come out publicly with details of the meeting, even as they accused a section of ODM party officials of auctioning the party to Ruto.

“A meeting was called by President Ruto in Transmara in December and I was invited but I refused to attend. Those who attended the meeting informed me how President Ruto gave orders on what to be done during the National Delegates Convention.

“There were two leaders from Homa Bay, one from Migori and others from Siaya and Mombasa. They were told to replace party officials as an ultimatum for them to form the next government. They were also promised bonuses after executing Ruto’s wishes,” Omondi said.

According to the MP, the plot by Ruto to take over ODM did not start in December but on September 22 last year, when the former ODM leader, the late Raila Odinga, met ODM-elected MPs and read the riot act to some of them for claiming they would support Ruto’s re-election.

In the said meeting, Raila had urged ODM-allied MPs to stand for what is right for the party and asked them to re-look at what the party had signed with UDA, saying that they had not passed resolutions for a pre-coalition after 2027.

“We have signed and agreed that we shall work together up to 2027. We have not passed any resolutions as a party to say how we shall go into elections together. Wherever you are, don’t commit a party to some things which have not been discussed, let those things be discussed first. Who has told you that ODM will not have a candidate in 2027?” The late Raila said.  

Caroli Omondi said after Raila’s remarks, he immediately fell sick and was rushed abroad without the agreement from his doctors.

“When Raila’s body arrived in Nairobi, one of the ODM party officials was instructed to hurriedly convene a National Executive Council meeting to name Oburu as the acting party leader, even without his knowledge. The said person pretended to be sick so as not to accompany the others who had gone to pick Raila’s remains.

“Oburu is being used. They are using his back to cross over and once they achieve their plans, they will remove him as the party leader,” said Omondi.

The Azimio Secretary General claimed ODM had been weakened by the President and had been directed to engage in a zoning strategy that will see ODM field candidates in Nyanza and Nairobi regions only.

“They have been lied to that after winning, the government will sponsor a motion to introduce the position of the Prime Minister, which will not have a term limit. They have been duped,” he said.

He added, “There must come a time when the circumstances surrounding Raila’s death be investigated and people be told the truth. The last five years of Baba’s life, he was surrounded by scavengers who had been planted around him to be spies.”

The Linda Mwananchi leaders believe President Ruto installed Oburu since he lacked the political oomph and influence to direct the party’s direction, saying that as a result, the party has continued to weaken day by day.

According to Siaya Governor James Orengo, the UDA party had already started fierce mobilisation in ODM strongholds, as ODM leaders in the broad-based arrangement watched helplessly.

He said UDA’s entry into ODM strongholds poses a risk to ODM’s dominance, particularly in Nyanza, even as he accused his colleagues of entertaining efforts that will ultimately reduce ODM to a Luo Nyanza party.

“ODM is found more or less in every region. That's what Raila did. He tried to build a national party, which is ODM. I see an attempt to try and drive it to purely a Luo party. If we choose to work with UDA, ODM is going to be a small party. It will be pushed back to a regional or Luo Nyanza party, which it is not. If we are not careful, it will be driven in that direction.”

Orengo has been vocal about the dangers of a potential merger or close alliance between ODM and the ruling UDA party, arguing that such moves threaten to turn ODM into a regional party or lead to it being "swallowed".

He said the secret negotiations between Linda Mwananchi leaders and Ruto had weakened the party.

“Nobody can dare auction the ODM party,” he declared. “Everything that the party will do will come from the people themselves. This party will not be swallowed by any other party.”

The Minority Leader of the National Assembly, Junet Mohammed, whose remarks that he would only allow the presence of UDA alongside ODM in the Nyanza region, raised concerns that, unlike in the past when they protested UDA’s entry into their zones, they had changed their tone.

He said, “We will not leave broad-based in 2027, we shall form or will be part of the government after 2027. In Nyanza, these are strongholds of the broad-based government. I declare that the only parties that will be visible will be UDA and ODM and not village parties such as those of Gachagua.”

However, Oburu, alive to zoning claims by UDA, warned that they would not cede their strongholds as they enter into negotiations with the party in pursuit of coalition building prior to the 2027 General Election.

“I would like to assure our members that even as they have mandated us to negotiate with like-minded parties like UDA, we have an irreducible minimum of not ceding any of our strongholds to our rivals as we get to the negotiation table,” said Oburu.

But despite Oburu’s stance, recent by-election losses have suggested a possible weakening of the party’s traditional grip in regions like Gusii and Western, where UDA and other parties such as former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) outnumbered ODM.

Analysts argue that while the party may struggle to remain united, the biggest test will be the party nominations ahead of next year’s polls. They argue that as the party stands, it lacks a uniting figure to keep it cohesive after the hotly contested nominations.

According to Simeon Ogonda, the party’s nominations will be its biggest litmus test.

“Political currents have just started raging, the tsunami is going to build at the nomination. ODM's litmus test, I believe, especially as far as Nyanza is concerned, is going to come when the nomination exercise is done. Is the party strong enough to make everybody who stays feel involved? Oburu’s shortcomings have proven that he's not as aggressive as his brother,” Ogonda said.

He added, “If the nomination doesn't happen as people expect, smaller parties will come that will displace ODM in some places. And UDA is now engaged in a very fierce campaign in Nyanza.”

On his part, Dr Kamau Wairuri, a political scientist and policy-oriented researcher, said Ruto’s involvement in ODM affairs was akin to putting the last nail in the party’s existence.

“The removal of the anti-Ruto critics from party positions, the rush to name Oburu as Raila’s successor, and the manner in which party officials are campaigning for Ruto even before they come up with a power-sharing formula should tell you one thing, that ODM is Ruto and he is in charge,” Dr Kamau said.