Six months in death: How politicians are fighting for own survival in post-Raila era

The six months since ODM Leader Raila Odinga died have exposed the frailties of several politicians who relied on his influence for survival.

These are leaders who barely campaigned and relied heavily on endorsements to clinch seats.

But this is no longer the case. The political survival of several ODM stalwarts in Nyanza, Western and the Coastal region is at stake.

Some of them have been blamed for the push for zoning and dalliance with President William Ruto to give them a chance to reclaim their political fort.

For several years, ODM functioned like a tightly held political machine where endorsement from Raila almost automatically translated into victory and political protection.

Many elected leaders benefited from direct tickets, party goodwill and the so-called “Raila effect”, which often neutralised internal competition and weakened rival parties at the ballot.

But with his absence, that political cushion has collapsed, leaving many of those elected on his coattails on their own ahead of the next year's General Election.

Some of them are party chairperson, Gladys Wanga, Governors Ochillo Ayacko (Migori), Fernandes Barasa (Kakamega), Paul Otuoma (Busia), MPs Rosa Buyu (Kisumu West), Jared Okello (Nyando), Eve Obara (Kabondo Kasipul), and Junet Mohamed (Suna East), and Senators Moses Kajwang (Homa Bay), Eddy Oketch (Migori), and Ledama ole Kina (Narok), among others.

ODM leaders who once relied on the party’s dominance are now pushing for electoral zoning to shield them against both internal rivalries and the growing strength of Ruto's UDA.

The zoning proposal would see political parties agree not to field candidates in each other’s strongholds, effectively ring-fencing territories where ODM currently holds dominance. This narrative is being fronted by several politicians allied to the Linda Ground initiative led by Oburu Odinga.

Dr Oburu has confirmed that zoning is now central to ODM’s negotiations, but critics have opposed the move.

“Because of the authority that you have given us, we are now going to move fast and see if we can agree with UDA and we are going to put our principals,” said Oburu.

Deputy Party Leader Simba Arati has taken an even firmer position, warning that ODM would not hesitate to exit talks if its traditional areas are threatened.

But beneath the strong rhetoric lies growing anxiety.

According to Siaya Governor James Orengo, the push is shortsighted. “This cry for zoning is because there is a realisation that we are weak,” he said. He also criticised what he described as a culture of exclusion within the party leadership.

Nowhere is this anxiety more visible than in Western Kenya, a region long considered ODM’s political backbone after Nyanza.

The region, which has more than 2.6 million registered voters, has historically delivered bloc votes for ODM. But recent developments suggest that loyalty can no longer be guaranteed.

The removal of key figures such as Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi and his Nairobi counterpart Edwin Sifuna from influential party positions has triggered anger among supporters and local leaders.

Their sidelining, alongside the removal of Saboti MP Caleb Amisi from the party’s National Executive Council, has further deepened divisions.

“They are testing the ground to remove everyone not support Ruto. I gladly become the first casualty! We shall not relent. History will judge us fairly,” said Amisi.

ODM Vihiga branch chairperson, Zebedee Osabwa, warned that alienating leaders trusted by Raila could cost the party. [Brian Kisanji]

Within Vihiga, Kakamega, Busia and Bungoma counties, political moods remain unsettled.

Party meetings have reportedly become tense, with some local leaders openly questioning the party's direction.

Analysts say the uncertainty is worsened by the perception that ODM is drifting toward cooperation with the ruling party, a move that has not been well received in some Western strongholds.

The discontent is already spilling into open defiance threats.

One longtime supporter, Amos Shisoka, expressed frustration over what he termed the marginalisation of Western Kenya leaders within ODM.

“I have just left the party. We cannot be treated as second-class supporters by having our sons Osotsi, Amisi and Sifuna blotted out, yet we remain in the party,” he lamented.

Such sentiments are increasingly common in parts of Western Kenya, where loyalty to ODM is now being tested by internal party decisions and the rise of UDA.

At the same time, UDA is steadily expanding its footprint in the region. Recent by-election victories have boosted confidence within the ruling party.

In Malava, UDA’s David Ndakwa narrowly defeated Seth Panyako of DAP-K, while Elphas Kainanga Shalakha secured victory in West Kabras ward.

These wins, though localised, have been interpreted as indicators of shifting political ground.

President William Ruto has framed such victories as evidence that his administration is gaining acceptance across regions once considered opposition strongholds. UDA’s growing list of elected leaders in Western Kenya—including Sabatia MP Clement Sloya, Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa, Webuye West MP Dan Wanyama, Mt Elgon MP Fred Kapondi, and Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale—has further reinforced the perception that ODM dominance in the region is no longer guaranteed.

Yet ODM still maintains a strong foothold in parts of Western Kenya, having won 11 out of 13 parliamentary seats in Kakamega County and controlling governorships in Vihiga, Kakamega and Busia.

However, analysts warn that these numbers may not translate into future certainty if internal divisions continue to widen.

Political analyst David Owino argues that while zoning may be easily negotiated in Luo Nyanza, where ODM remains dominant, Western Kenya presents a far more complex political battlefield.

“Currently, it’s easy to say that UDA can’t contest and win in Nyanza, especially Luo Nyanza, but in the Kisii region, the ground might shift,” he observed.