ODM's rapid decline betrayal to Raila struggles

The legacy that the late Raila Odinga built over the decades, through blood, sweat, choking teargas fumes and tears, is at a crossroads as the country marks six months since his demise.

For a man who dedicated his life to a fight for social justice and had hoped ODM would live for several years beyond him, that dream is rapidly evaporating as greed, personal interests and betrayal threaten to delete his footprints.

And if all goes to plan, as pursued by a section of his former foot soldiers and President William Ruto’s party, the Orange party will be the latest formation to morph into UDA after Musalia Mudavadi’s ANC and Amason Kingi’s Pamoja African Alliance.

Today marks exactly six months since Raila died, but the erosion and the changes that have taken place in his absence are jaw-dropping as multiple woes threaten to crumble his ODM party.

Party loyalists believe all that could go wrong in Raila’s absence has gone wrong in record time, as observers and other party stalwarts predict doom. Yesterday, as some party officials reminisced about good times when Raila was alive, they claimed the last six months have been dark and heartbreaking.

This is happening as his elder brother, Dr Oburu Oginga, who has been charged with the responsibility of protecting his legacy and steering ODM, struggles to fill Raila’s large political shoes. 

Within six months, the party is steadily crumbling, some of his allies have been sidelined, others kicked out of leadership positions, sibling rivalries have deepened, and his family has stepped back from the scene, choosing to cower under the umbrella of Ruto’s protection in government.

Yesterday, her widow, Ida Odinga, broke her silence, claiming she was not a politician. “Personally, I am not a politician. My husband was, and my daughter is, my brother-in-law is,” she said while addressing stakeholders in Mombasa. At the apex is Oburu, backed by ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga, deputy party leaders Abdulswamad Nassir, Simba Arati, Suna East MP Junet Mohamed, among others.

Observers are painting a gloomy picture, claiming the future looks pale, and that hypocrisy by some of his former allies has pushed ODM to the brink.

Constitutional lawyer Holly Okwama says the moment of trial to Raila’s legacy reflects on the hypocrisy from the people he worked with and those who surrounded him. “Witnessing the call for zoning is a fear of the electorate and non- belief in ODM greatness within the regions that Raila dominated with his ODM vision,” Okwama says.

Some believe that what is being witnessed is not a sudden collapse, but the unfolding of long-standing fractures within Raila’s political circle.

“Raila Odinga was, in many ways, betrayed before his death, at the moment of his death, during his burial, and the pattern has persisted to date,” says Clifford Obiero, a lawyer.

He says Raila’s allies, “some driven by survival, others by ambition”, appear to have shifted from custodians of his legacy to competitors for its control.

Obiero thinks that the family, too, faces the difficult balance between preservation and participation, which he says has not always inspired unity.

“As for his political base, many did not anticipate such a rapid and visible decline,” he states.

The party is now split into two. One faction is led by Oburu under the Linda Ground grouping, while Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Governor James Orengo, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, among others, are leading a different faction dubbed Linda Mwanainchi.

Still, in recent days, fears of Oburu’s fold splitting into two have also gathered momentum as the push for the controversial zoning deal with UDA splits opinions. Last week, ODM leaders, including Suba North Member Party Millie Odhiambo, Elisha Odhiambo of Gem, Jared Okello of Nyando and Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda, openly questioned the push.

Some sources intimate that the party leadership was under pressure to fold into the UDA. A section of leaders believes the decline is being orchestrated by President Ruto in his effort to build an imperial presidency.

Siaya Governor James Orengo describes ODM’s fall as a failure by design, aimed at fueling internal decay.

“Raila really believed in the integrity of political parties. We must have independent parties who run their own affairs and are driven by policy, ideology, and political objectives which are well spelt out,” he says.