Ruto's playbook that is eating Orange party from the inside

President William Ruto is trudging on with his quest to drive the last few nails left on the once-mighty and impeccable ODM party as his well-organised, political machinery pummels the Orange party from all quarters, threatening its nationwide support and widening fissures in the party.

The Sunday Standard has established that the President is leveraging  divisions in ODM to rejuvenate grassroots support through the old familiar networks he built in the build-up to the 2022 General Election as ODM falters.

These networks were anchored on several leaders who are not members of the ODM party but have the ability to mobilise groups to back the President’s initiatives in the region.

Observers believe the President has adopted an unconventional political strategy that is slowly eating ODM from the inside, strengthening his own grassroots networks to weaken ODM’s bargaining power, dicing the development card to the electorate and making a litany of promises to ODM strongholds.

The strategy mirrors the playbook the President adopted to crumble the Jubilee party when he was still the Deputy President and rallied multitudes to his fold in the process.

Recently, the President’s political machinery, pegged on promises, opportunities and intimidation, pushed Musalia Mudavadi’s ANC and Amason Kingi’s Pamoja African Alliance to oblivion.

And it is the same script playing out for ODM as the President’s allies dismiss the calls for zoning and slot of the deputy presidency, dwarfs Raila’s kin from politics with State appointments, fuels divisions while running a parallel programme to bolster UDA’s strength in perceived ODM strongholds.

Several ODM insiders told The Sunday Standard that the President has successfully managed to tame ODM through a series of strategies that began immediately after the demise of the former ODM chief, Raila Odinga, successfully pushing Oburu Oginga and his allies to a persistent defensive mode over their union with UDA.

His alleged involvement in helping Oburu succeed Raila in ODM is no longer whispers within political corridors alone but a major point Oburu’s critics have modelled into a campaign tool to poke holes in the deal with ODM.

Still, insiders claim the government has been at the forefront in funding ODM Linda Ground rallies have been helping with mobilisation for attendance, firmly putting Ruto at the centre of the woes in ODM.

For instance, Siaya Governor James Orengo is convinced Oburu was handpicked by the President immediately after the demise of Raila and even before his body was laid to rest.

According to Orengo, the President has capitalised on the leadership of party leader Oburu to weaken the party and believes the President had a hand in the selection of Oburu to lead the party.

Orengo further alleged direct interference by the presidency in ODM’s internal affairs, claiming that key decisions are no longer made independently.

“Right now, a lot of decisions that affect ODM are made by President Ruto, with a small cabal of leaders in ODM,” he said.

“I dare say even some of the organs of the party meet either at the State House or in President Ruto’s residence.”

In the last couple of months, senior ODM leaders led by Oburu, chairperson Gladys Wanga and deputy party leader Governor Abdulswamad Nassir have been on an overdrive to market the so-called broad-based government.

The tone, however, has now changed to a demand for respect for ODM from UDA.

The Sunday Standard has established that UDA is planning to step up its operations in Nyanza to rebuild their own networks as tensions with ODM continue to mount over zoning and the deputy presidency.

For ODM, however, Ruto’s quest has been aided by the sibling rivalries that had been simmering long before the late ODM leader Raila Odinga perished and exploded immediately. after his death. The President’s allies and fanatics refer to him as a political chef, whose political wit has managed to tame the fiercest of the fierce.

If this is true, then Oburu and his allies are probably scratching their heads in wonder on how they effortlessly allowed Ruto to dump them in his political pan that has already consumed a number of titans.

ODM insiders argue that the President is the architect of the woes taking place within party and that the latest uncertainties over talks is by design aimed at further weakening the Orange party.

Others, however, claim the several demands that had been fronted by ODM even before the talks began as well as uncertainties over the popularity of most of the Linda Ground leaders has pushed UDA into a retreat.

“UDA is weighing all options. It is not a secret that a majority of the events that the ODM leadership has conducted are supported by the ruling alliance,” said a UDA operative.

According to the insider, the team is confident of clinching substantial support from Nyanza with or without the help of ODM, terming ODM’s rhetoric on zoning and demands for a deputy presidency slot as unwarranted.

In the region, as ODM falters, the President’s allies have been on overdrive to build grassroots support for him and barely a weekend passes before they pitch a tent to rally support for the president.

Yesterday, for instance, Interior PS Raymond Omollo was meeting youths and boda boda operators in Kisumu to drum up support for the President.

In Homa Bay, MP Peter Kaluma expressed optimism that they are still on the right track and claimed that the differences between some UDA and ODM members will not deter the two parties from holding pre-election coalition talks.

“Negotiations between ODM and UDA are still going on.  A negotiation for forming a political coalition is not like a wedding conversation, meaning there must be a push and pull by both parties but this does not mean it will flop,” Kaluma said.

“The negotiation between ODM and UDA is going on and we hope to form the next government,” Kaluma said. His statement, however, contradicts what Oburu said in Kisumu on Friday, after he claimed that the talks are yet to begin.

Observers believe the President has played ODM and are pessimistic about the prospects of Oburu’s fold attaining an equal-partner status in the event that talks succeed.

Communication researcher Prof Charles Nyambuga argues that Ruto’s game plan is designed to weaken any potential powerful leader.

“His ideal outcome is where influential figures like Oburu Odinga, Gladys Wanga, and Junet Mohammed gradually fade from the political stage, paving the way for a more favourable leadership arrangement. That is his game plan, and it is unlikely to change,” he opines.

According to the analyst, the President is keen to retain absolute control of Parliament and that explains part of the reason he is keen to weaken ODM to his liking. “His focus is control of Parliament and ensuring loyalty among incoming legislators.

From that perspective, ODM leaders become a bottleneck to his strategy. I do not see much coming out of these talks, and although some leaders are trying to soften the narrative, it may already be too late.”

Nairobi University professor, XN Iraki, opines that ODM presented Ruto with bumps on his bid for another term and described their relationship as a forced political marriage devoid of courtship.

“Without a strong ODM, President Ruto’s road to 2027 would have fewer and lower bumps. The ODM factions could come together in 2027 because they have already tasted power and do not want to be out,” he says.

For Oburu’s fold there is no good option left as momentum appears shift towards the Linda Nchi faction that had stayed firm in opposition of what they described as premature talks with the president’s team.

Over the weekend, Oburu’s faction has sought to downplay rifts with their partners in UDA. However, insiders intimidated to The Sunday Standard that the corporation has run into a brick wall.

On Friday, Oburu retreated to Kisumu to seek the advice of the clergy from Nyanza region but downplayed a rift, claiming that the talks are yet to begin.

The conviction of his statements, however, was a stark contrast to the bravado his allies have shown in recent days over a potential pre-election deal.

“ODM itself understands the value of unity in negotiations, and the President also understands that a united party offers more control. Ultimately, ODM is negotiating to preserve its unity, and it must act with the same strategy,” said political analyst Mark Bichachi.