UDA-ODM war of words exposes fragility of 2027 pre-election pact

The fragile partnership between President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is facing a litmus test, with a reported decision by ODM to freeze ongoing coalition talks, threatening to unravel their 2027 pre-election pact.

What began as a union of convenience for a section of ODM members, and a re-election vehicle for President Ruto under the “broad-based government” arrangement, has quickly descended into a high-stakes standoff between the two parties.

Their delicate union, now characterised by mistrust and counter-accusations of disrespect, appears to be approaching a breaking point.

Pundits argue that the infighting has exposed President Ruto’s underlying intent in engaging ODM — to inherit the late ODM leader Raila Odinga’s political strongholds.

Sources told The Standard that the President’s decision to steer clear of the dispute suggests he no longer sees value in cementing a pact with a divided ODM, given its fractured numbers, a significant chunk of which now aligns with the Linda Mwananchi faction.

At the heart of the dispute is ODM’s insistence on political zoning to ring-fence its traditional strongholds from encroachment by UDA.

Leaders, including ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga, have in recent days maintained that zoning is a non-negotiable minimum in the coalition talks, aimed at preventing UDA from infiltrating the party’s Nyanza, Western and Coast bastions.

“We will defend our party. We will protect our party, and defending our party comes number one before anything else. That our parliamentary strength is not reduced even by an inch,” stated Wanga, who was speaking during a public gathering in Homa Bay last week.

Deputy presidency

ODM has also laid claim to the deputy president position and proposed a 50-50 sharing of positions.

Some UDA officials have dismissed these demands, maintaining that any candidate under the broad-based arrangement is free to vie in any region and that the position of deputy president is not up for negotiation.

Speaking in Mombasa on April 7, UDA Secretary-General Omar Hassan said the party’s strategy is anchored in open political competition, rejecting any attempts to restrict where candidates can contest.

“Anybody who wants to vie against UDA in our strongholds is welcome, and we won’t stop anyone. Similarly, for us, we don’t want anybody to tell us that we cannot field candidates in their strongholds. If it’s your stronghold, why are you worried? If they are your members, what problem do you have when UDA candidates vie? Why the panic?” Omar posed.

Leaders allied to President Ruto from the Mt Kenya West region have also repeatedly dismissed ODM’s claim to the deputy president position.

Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku, an ally of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, last week told ODM leaders to keep off the position, insisting it is reserved for the Mt Kenya region and is not up for negotiation.

“The seat belongs to Kindiki. There is no vacancy now and there will be none in 2027,” said Ruku.

Kiambaa MP Njuguna Kawanjiku has also threatened to withdraw from the broad-based arrangement if the running mate position is handed to ODM in next year’s election.

“ODM must forget the DP position. If there is anything that could make us quit this government and the broad-based unity, it is the DP seat,” he said.

Such remarks have fuelled a political storm between the two parties, with the Oburu Odinga-led faction of ODM accusing the ruling party of disrespect.

During its Central Management Committee meeting last Thursday, members expressed concern over what they described as statements by UDA officials aimed at causing anxiety within ODM, warning that the party expects mutual respect in the partnership.

“As a party that believes in principles, ideology and the foundation on which it was founded, we demand respect from the UDA party,” the party emphasised in a statement read by its Deputy Secretary-General, Catherine Omanyo.

As a result of the tiff, ODM is said to have suspended coalition talks and halted campaigning for President Ruto’s re-election, opting instead to focus on strengthening its grassroots structures ahead of 2027.

Critics argue the Oburu-led faction miscalculated by hastily aligning with Ruto, and that its members are now coming to their senses.

Amisi, a critic of the broad-based arrangement and who is allied to the ODM-Linda Mwananchi faction, says the fallout marks the beginning of the end of the two parties’ pre-election agreement.

“For William Ruto, Baba’s death was a blessing in disguise because the party was left as an orphan and Ruto stepped in pretending to be a father. But in a real sense, he was intent on using the party to serve his own political interests,” said Amisi.

“Ruto’s intention has always been to kill the ODM,” he said.

Reconciliation

The MP argues that Ruto’s aim was not to form a coalition with ODM but to corner it into merging with UDA. With ODM divided, he says, it loses political clout and bargaining power, leaving it with little option but to align fully with Ruto.

“The Linda Ground team has already been relegated to a weak party with a say only in the Luo Nyanza region; they do not have any bargaining power,” says Amisi.

He also ruled out the possibility of reconciliation between the two ODM factions should the Oburu-led group exit the broad-based arrangement.

“That ship already sailed and is almost reaching its destination. If we, as Linda Mwananchi, go back to ODM, then we will be of no value to Kenyans,” reiterated Amisi.

Political analyst Dismus Mokua observes that ODM is at a crossroads but maintains that President Ruto now holds the upper hand.

“Ruto is the de facto ODM and UDA party leader. If they push him with unreasonable demands, he can as well decide the rules of engagement… Remember their experts in the Cabinet; they will most probably side with Ruto, and this will hurt ODM even more. They will be coming to the negotiating table very weak,” he points out.

He adds that the party’s current predicament stems from poor management, particularly its decision to announce the pre-election pact publicly before finalising key details.

“Gladys Wanga and Oburu Oginga have really mismanaged the party. They now have a lot to handle. They should learn from Moses Wetang’ula and Musalia Mudavadi how they handled their talks with Ruto back then. You do it behind the curtains and only make it public when it has materialised,” notes Mokua.