Battle for Baba's party heats up as rival ODM faction lands in Kisumu

The scramble to inherit the late ODM leader Raila Odinga’s political empire is expected to take another twist as the Linda Mwananchi faction of ODM lands in Kisumu today for their first rally in the region amid an intense political competition with the Linda Ground faction.

Stakes are high for the meeting as the fight for the soul of ODM intensifies, widening the fissures within the party and threatening to scatter the Nyanza vote into factions as political titans scramble for space.

Observers believe today’s meeting could signal a turning point in the Raila succession race as the feud among the ODM siblings continue to deepen. The Linda Mwanainchi team includes Siaya Governor James Orengo, Embakasi East -Babu Owino, expelled Secretary -General Edwin Sifuna and former deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi, among others.

Today, as they pitch tent in Kisumu for their rally, the Linda Ground faction led by party leader Oburu Oginga and chairperson Gladys Wanga will be taking their rallies to the Coast.

The latest scramble for the political base, monickered as the late Raila’s political bedroom mirrors the 1994 and 1995 scramble for control of Kisumu after the demise of Raila’s father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

At the time, opposing groups were fighting for the political control of Kisumu. One was allied to Raila in the opposition, while the other was allied to the then Kisumu Mayor and Kanu Operative Akinyi Oile. Eventually, the Raila group won and took over the control of Kisumu.

Yesterday, as political temperatures continued to rise in the city, shadows from the past flickered in the horizons of the lakeside city as groups allied to either camp engaged in an intense mobilization and issued conflicting statements ahead of the rally.

It also comes at a time when Governor Orengo has stirred controversy after declaring himself as the “People’s Party leader” and dismissing Oburu’s leadership, attracting intense criticism from Oburu’s allies.

Residents, too, are torn between the two groups, with some backing Babu/Sifuna axis while others maintain they are steadfast behind Oburu’s leadership and vowed to bar the group from conducting the rally.

The Sunday Standard established a flurry of planning meetings was taking place within the city and in the outskirts ahead of the rally in an apparent attempt to influence the outcome of the rally expected to take place at Owuor grounds.

Sources claimed that an intense mobilization was taking place ahead of the event. At around 10 a.m., a group of boda boda operators traversed the city to express their support for the so-called broad-based government.

Vocal human rights defender Audi Ogada, who was once an opposition political operative and youth winger for Jaramogi, described the anxiety surrounding the rally as a reflection of the infighting within the ODM party.

“This is an in-house fight. It’s only my prayer that the right and freedom of expression and association is allowed to prevail. Let every person get their space and sell their agenda to the people.” Ogada said.

“If the rally succeeds, then the people shall have spoken. It will force Oburu and the ODM leadership of ODM to review the future of ODM and the legacy of Raila really lies with them,” he added.

In the event of failure, Audi says the burden will be unbearable for Siaya Governor Orengo, who is seeking to establish himself as the face of the Linda Mwanaichi movement in Luo Nyanza.

Failure of the Kisumu meeting, according to Ogada, will be interpreted as a failure by Orengo and thus may spell doom for him and his political career.

“If the rally fails, it will be a very embarrassing moment for Orengo. He is the face of that movement in this region, and if rally fails, he will emerge as a wounded person. It will bring back the memories of the similar struggle he led after the death of Jaramogi which culminated in his loss of the Ugenya parliamentary seat,” Ogada stated.

However, yesterday, a number of residents and supporters of the faction claimed they would attend the rally in their numbers and would not succumb to what they claimed was intimidation by allies of Oburu.

Morris Onyango, a resident of Railways ward, claimed they will welcome the leaders, adding that they are keen to embrace a voice that speaks on their concerns.

“We want an alternative political voice. Many are dissatisfied with the current situation. Since Raila Odinga’s passing, leaders like Edwin Sifuna and Babu Owino appear positioned to step into that space because they worked closely with him and understand his approach,” he said.

“As a boda boda operator, I am against violence and goonism. We do not want to be used to cause chaos. We want to hear practical solutions, not handouts,” said Wilberforce Odara.

According to political analyst Barack Muluka, the success or failure of the “Linda Mwananchi” rally in Kisumu tomorrow will not be assessed on the basis of whether they could manage to hold a meeting in the event of resistance from either the police or hired goons.

Muluka notes that the Kisumu rally would only be considered a failure if the people refuse to show up for the rally even after the rally organisers have been given the green light by the police and a peaceful environment is accorded by the residents devoid of any act of hooliganism.

“If the rally is disrupted by either the police or hired goons or both, you can’t say the rally has failed. The rally can only be said to have failed when they’re left alone to conduct their rally but people refuse to come or the people turn up but in low numbers,” he stated.

The two warring ODM groups, he argued, are both a true representation of Raila Odinga, who he says was both combative and negotiating in his approach to politics.

“The Linda Mwanaichi and Linda Ground camps of ODM are both a representation of a Raila legacy. Raila was both a combative and a negotiating politician. Oburu and Wanga camp represent the negotiating side of Odinga while Orengo, Sifuna and Babu Owino represent a combative  Raila,” he stated.

Some observers have, however, expressed their fear that the Kisumu rally might turn chaotic and disruptive owing to the high-stakes mobilisation that being undertaken by both camps ahead of the political meeting.

According to Chris Owalla, a political analyst and governance expert, those opposed to the rally are burning the midnight oil trying to mobilise goons from around the city to come and disrupt the event.

“I foresee violence. I was moving around Kisumu city, and I have realised that there’s a serious anti-Linda Mwanaichi mobilisation process going on. A section of local political leaders appears to be preparing the people to be hostile against Linda Mwanaichi tomorrow,” Owalla said.

Some, however, believe the rally is a turning point in the Raila succession. In the event that the rally is successful and the team manages to successfully undress Oburu in Kisumu, it will mark the first time a leader of the opposition is openly criticized by leaders from the region.

During Raila’s reign at the helm of ODM, very few leaders, if any, dared to hold a rally to criticize him in Kisumu. But the same is not with Oburu who is likely to be the subject of criticisms after Orengo claimed leadership of the party with a caveat of the people’s party leader.

Prof Charles Nyambuga, a communication researcher at Maseno University described the intense  interest in Kisumu as strategic.

“If any group successfully mobilizes support here, it would signal a breakthrough in ODM’s traditional stronghold. Kisumu and the larger Nyanza region remain the core of ODM support, so any significant rally here carries symbolic weight,” he argues.

Prof. XN Iraki, University of Nairobi, and Mark Bichachi, an analyst, are also of a similar view.

“Everyone is trying to position themselves to inherit the political space whether within ODM, UDA, or the Linda Mwananchi movement. At this point, it is not clear who will eventually take over. However, whoever succeeds will likely inherit a significant voter base heading into 2027. That explains the growing interest in Kisumu,” says Prof. Iraki.

Critics, however, believe the Linda Mwananchi faction do not have the interest of the people at heart.

Joshua Nyamori, lawyer and a UDA political operative argues that there is no leader from Kisumu involved in the planning of the meeting because it is opaque.

“We do not mind people coming to Kisumu to visit or hold meetings. However, there are fundamental philosophical concerns that have been raised by various stakeholders in Kisumu. When I refer to stakeholders, I mean residents, local leaders, traders, workers, and the wider community. The key question is: what is the objective of this meeting? A mass meeting is typically a people’s meeting, organized by local leaders. In this case, there is no single leader from Kisumu involved in organizing it. Therefore, it is not Kisumu residents or leaders who have convened this meeting and invited others it is a case of outsiders coming to organize an event here.”

However, despite his claims, Kisumu Woman Representative Ruth Odinga is among the leaders who have given the meeting a greenlight. Although not a member of the Linda Mwanainchi faction, Ruth claimed that the group has a right to assemble and hold their rally.

Report by Harold Odhiambo, Clinton Ambujo and Rodgers Otiso