From defections to 'wantam' chorus: The making of Ruto's Mt Kenya headache

President William Ruto enters the 2027 election cycle with signs of anxiety, admitting to experiencing a “headache” in maintaining support within the Mt Kenya region.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment and the removal of key government officials from Mt Kenya, alongside other unfulfilled pledges, are among the factors cited for Ruto’s growing political distance from the vote-rich region.

Murang’a Governor Irungu Kang’ata is the latest ally to distance himself from the President, citing a siege mentality among Mt Kenya voters towards Ruto’s administration.

Other key former allies who have since joined the “Wantam” (one-term) movement include Kenya Seed Company officials, former Kirinyaga Women Representative Wangui Ngirichi—who played a central role in the formation of the UDA party—and East African Legislative Assembly MP Kanini Kega, who had previously defected from Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Alliance after its defeat by the Kenya Kwanza coalition.

Political drift

Countrywide opposition efforts to forge a united front ahead of the 2027 polls have also chipped away at Ruto’s support base.

While Ruto has publicly expressed his readiness to accept the election results, concerns about losing key regional backing, rising living costs and taxation have fuelled speculation about his political future.

On Sunday, during a church service at AIC Church Githumu branch in Kandara constituency, the President acknowledged that the area had become a challenging political landscape.

“I know there are many issues, there is work to be done, and many matters to be straightened, but with prayers, even the most difficult situation will be made easy,” he was quoted in part of the media.

These remarks came just days after Ruto sparked discussion in Bomet County by describing his community as a “weak link” in his re-election bid, citing low voter registration numbers.

Speaking at the burial of Transport CS Davis Chirchir’s father, he stressed that this apparent voter apathy in the Rift Valley region threatens his political prospects.

Signs of anxiety

Analysts and political commentators suggest that Ruto’s statements indicate panic.

“The political landscape is highly charged, with an intense focus on party realignments and the formation of new alliances ahead of the election. Those are signs of anxiety,” says Joseph Omondi, a leadership and governance expert.

He further notes that Ruto’s challenges have been worsened by the high level of resistance on social media platforms, where public disillusionment is increasing.

Omondi, the Executive Director at Midrift Hurinet, also highlights that a major concern for the President may be low voter turnout in key strongholds rather than outright opposition.

According to Gitile Naituli, a professor of management and leadership, the presidency does not collapse overnight; it begins to tremble.

“When President Ruto tells Mount Kenya that he will ‘leave his fate to God’ if they reject him, this is not an expression of humility,” he argues.

“It is an acknowledgement of political reality. It is the language of a leader who understands that once that region turns decisively against you, recovery becomes extraordinarily difficult,” he adds.

Naituli further observes rising political tension, including challenges from former Gachagua, who is building a new political coalition ahead of 2027.

Kang’ata was among the foot soldiers who campaigned for the party’s endorsement in the Mt Kenya region after he left Jubilee Party in the run-up to the last General Election.

According to Kang’ata, Ruto’s government was to blame for Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party's popularity in the region.

“There are some actions that have been done in Mt Kenya by President William Ruto, which are creating a siege mentality; they include the removal of Ndindi Nyoro as the chairperson of the Budget Committee, the attack on Kiambu Governor Kimani Wamatangi’s property, the impeachment of the Meru Governor Kawira Mwangaza, among others,” the governor said.

The decision by Ngirici to resign her position as chairperson of the Kenya Seed Company before the government moved to oust her is also a telling political move.

Ngirici, who was also a key figure in the UDA campaigns in Mt Kenya, declared that she will not contest the Kirinyaga governor seat as an independent candidate, having learned lessons from her unsuccessful 2022 bid.

Kega, on his part, said after soul searching and reflection, he decided to follow the electorate, whom he maintained had divorced President Ruto despite his overwhelming votes during the 2022 general election.

Shifting ground

Analysts say the departure of the two from UDA is a big blow to Ruto’s re-election.

“We are likely to see more and more governors and MPs in Mt Kenya leaving UDA ahead of the next election. Let us give them up to August this year. The ground has shifted tremendously,” says Dr Peter Mbae, a political scientist.

Dr Mbae maintains that Mt Kenya is no longer interested in Ruto’s lies, deceit and conmanship.

He should know that leaders have not feared those who praise them; they have feared those who can remove them. That is the enduring grammar of politics, and it is a language Ruto understands with remarkable clarity.”

Another political headache for the President is the ODM party’s internal divisions, which threaten his re-election bid.

Analysts warn that the absence of a unifying figure like the late Raila Odinga could dampen voter enthusiasm, particularly among young people who were mobilised more by personality and historical loyalty than policy platforms.

In the party backyard, Siaya Governor James Orengo is emerging as a central figure in shaping the region’s next political chapter.

As a key player in the Linda Mwananchi formation, Orengo has maintained a hard-line stance against President William Ruto, insisting that the push to remove the Kenya Kwanza administration from power remains firmly on course.

Far from retreating, Orengo appears intent on inheriting and sustaining the resistance narrative long associated with the late Odinga.

Political observers say his stance could cut both ways, helping to energise the opposition base and counter voter apathy, while at the same time risking deepening divisions within ODM.

Analysts warn that the absence of a unifying figure like the late Raila Odinga could reduce voter enthusiasm, especially among young people.

In Nyanza, Siaya Governor James Orengo has emerged as a key opposition figure under the Linda Mwananchi movement, maintaining a hardline stance against the Kenya Kwanza administration.

Observers say his position could either strengthen opposition mobilisation or deepen internal divisions within ODM.

Nyanza dynamics

Compounding the political uncertainty for Ruto is the issue of low voter registration in parts of Nyanza.

In the just-concluded voter registration, data from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission have shown slower uptake compared to other regions, raising concerns about the number of eligible voters who may ultimately participate in the next general election.

For President Ruto, the shifting dynamics in Nyanza present both an opportunity and a challenge.

While opposition fragmentation and potential voter apathy could weaken traditional voting patterns, they do not automatically translate into support for the ruling coalition.

To make meaningful inroads, Ruto’s administration will need to go beyond political strategy and address long-standing economic concerns, invest in visible development, and build trust in a region that has historically remained.

Political commentator Andrew Nyabuto noted that Ruto’s alliance with ODM is under strain, with trust eroding and internal splits emerging.

He said hardliners in UDA have made it clear there will be no “free passes” in 2027. Despite the political anxiety, President Ruto has maintained confidence in winning re-election, citing his development agenda, including affordable housing.

He has also promised 30 new classrooms at Njiiri School in Murang’a County, along with a Sh100 million dormitory, six laboratories, and a 72-seater bus.