Why Kenya faces 84pc chance of experiencing PEV in 2027

 As goons and suspected police officers continue spreading terror in Ol Kalou, a reputable international observer group is now warning that Kenya could be rocked by unprecedented electoral violence in the 2027 presidential elections.

While institutions charged with the responsibility of maintaining law and order, monitoring hate speech mongers and enforcing electoral laws remain silent over widespread violence in the country, a new report predicts that Kenya faces an 84.1 per cent probability of experiencing electoral violence in next year’s polls.

The report; The Electoral Vulnerability Index 2026–2027 by Kofi Annan Foundation, places Kenya among 10 countries identified as priorities by the European Union during this election cycle, alongside Somalia, Burundi, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Africa.

The report has been released when uncontrolled violence was happening in the Ol Kalou by-election campaigns, where scores have been injured in the violence, among them, Governor Irungu Kangata’s driver who was shot by people suspected to be police officers.

Yesterday, the tough-talking NCIC chairperson Dr Kepha Omae said they were ‘monitoring a disturbing escalation in political rhetoric ', but the commission has only left it at that. Over the years, it has largely been considered to be all talk without action.

Omae admitted that the developments threatened to undo the hard peace and unity that Kenyans have been painstakingly building over time, but he did not mention a single case or a politician that they were pursuing.

 “As a country moves into an increasingly charged political season, the commission notes with alarm the disruption of political and public gatherings, attacks on citizens and leaders on account of divergent opinion and the deliberate use of coded and overt language intended to stir up ethnicity if left unaddressed,” he said.

Stakeholders such as the National Council of Churches of Kenya (NCCK) yesterday warned that the rapid acceleration of the country’s descent was plunging it into a chaotic and murderous gangland, saying there have been more than 30 distinct goon-related incidents since the beginning of the year.

“This is a very worrying trend, and we succinctly warn those who are driving this culture. Why is our government so hell-bent on sowing goonism that will without doubt turn Kenya into a gangland state? Have our leaders truly failed to learn from Haiti that state-sponsored goonism,” a statement signed by NCCK chairperson and its General Secretary Rev Dr Elias Otieno Agola and Rev Canon Chris Kinyanjui respectively read in part.

The statement added, “For sure, the growing state dependence on goons to manage political voices is a terrible choice of strategy that should be reversed immediately.”

According to the report, Kenya remained politically sensitive despite having stronger institutions, an active civil society and an established electoral system.

It identifies economic hardship, unemployment, taxation disputes, corruption concerns, police conduct and youth-led activism as factors that could influence the 2027 election.

The report further warned that the next year’s general election could become a platform for citizens to demand accountability over the rising cost of living, fuel prices, police brutality and unresolved protest-related deaths.

“Economic hardship, tax protests, opposition mobilisation, the high cost of living, corruption and police conduct have marked the political environment since 2022. Youth-led protests and civic activism have shown that grievances can mobilise beyond traditional party structures. The 2027 cycle may therefore combine conventional presidential competition with broader accountability demands,” the report read in part.

According to the report, the death of the ODM leader Raila Odinga last year could further compound the situation; it could cut both ways; a weaker and more predictable opposition, or a scramble for succession that produces new alliances the government has never had to negotiate with before.

The report put three key institutions on notice as they were critical to preventing electoral violence. They include the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), the National Police Service and the Judiciary.

It noted that the transparency with which the IEBC procures voting technology will determine whether Kenyans trust the results it announces.

The police's handling of protests and protection of human rights will also influence how peaceful the elections will be, with the police officers being urged to remain politically neutral and use proportionate force when managing rallies, demonstrations and election-related unrest.

Kofi Annan was significant in Kenya’s history as he mediated the warring political parties after the 2007 Post Election Violence (POV) that left over 1000 people dead.

It was Annan who brokered a truce between the third President, Mwai Kibaki and Raila through the creation of the Grand Coalition Government that reinstated Kibaki as the President while Raila occupied the Prime Minister position, which was established through the National Accord.

Despite the reports that indicate the probability of violence ahead of next year’s polls, key institutions mandated to maintain peace have been silent over the rising cases of political intolerance and use of goons to manage politics.

They include the IEBC, the National Police Service (NPS), and the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC).

On May 15 this year, both the IEBC and the NPS identified violence as a major security threat ahead of next year’s polls as they separately highlighted that establishment of criminal gangs and goons by political actors during the last by-elections mirrored a precedent to what the country may experience in next year’s polls.

The IEBC regretted that the presence of goons had led to security threats such as disruption at tallying centres and polling stations, attacks on members of the public, voters and polling officials such as in Mbeere North, Malava, Narok Town and in some instances leading to killings such as was the case in Opondo area of Kasipul where two people lost their lives.

The electoral agency, during the consultative meeting among stakeholders such as the Interior and National Coordination and Defence Ministries in Nairobi, reported that violence during campaigns had resulted in low voter turnout as voters shied away from the polling stations.

“There were attacks on commission staff in Kariobangi Member of County Assembly by-elections where IEBC materials were almost vandalised and in Kasipul where an election official was attacked by a goon who was later taken to court,” the commission’s chairperson Erustus Ethekon revealed.

He demanded an expedited investigation and prosecution of election offenders to punish the culprits and to deter the occurrence of the violence as the country gears up to the next general elections.

“We as IEBC are very clear on this issue, particularly Mr Inspector General. We need to deal decisively with this issue both from the demand side and the supply side because these young people on their own do not engage in political violence. Some people have the demand for their services, and of course, being unemployed and facing some of the challenges, then they are likely to engage in these activities for survival,” Ethekon noted.

He said the commission, once it declares the election period, would, among other things, penalise and disqualify aspirants who are engaged in violent activities from seeking the elective positions in a bid to enforce the electoral code of conduct.

“The commission will strictly enforce the code of conduct against those politicians, whether sitting or aspiring. We must have a robust election security arrangement program with all those coordinating mechanisms and structures such as the IEBC, the IG, all the agencies that are involved such as the intelligence and the civil society which are also parts and parcel of that election security arrangement program,’ the chairperson noted. The Inspector General of Police Douglas Kanja reported that the service was concerned about heightened political intolerance, violent disruption of political rallies and party nominations by goons and criminal gangs, ethnic profiling and zoning of political strongholds.

“As our preparedness strategy, we have embarked on a continuous threat assessment and hotspot mapping, deployment of intelligence and surveillance teams, monitoring and crackdown of organised criminal networks and enforcement of the Public Order Act regarding public gatherings,” he said.

Areas that are under enhanced monitoring include Nairobi in general, Western and Central organised gang corridors, Nyanza political hotspots, Coast region radicalisation and political hotspots.

Other areas that the police are closely monitoring are Rift Valley due to inter-communal conflict corridors, North Eastern border counties, Eastern region conflict-prone zones, including areas affected by boundary disputes, communal tensions, political hotspots, banditry and cattle rustling.

Despite the tough talk, the NPS has not arrested anyone, while the IEBC has not disqualified any political bigwig in connection with sponsoring violence or being involved in hate speech.