Fading Orange: How ODM is shrinking into a regional fortress

For nearly two decades, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) resembled a mighty baobab tree whose branches stretched across Kenya's political landscape.

From the Coast to the Kisii highlands, the cosmopolitan precincts of Nairobi to the pastoral counties of the Lower Rift and North Eastern Kenya, the party projected itself as a formidable national movement anchored on reform, social justice and the towering political influence of its founding leader, Raila Odinga.

But as the party approaches its first anniversary without Raila following his death, questions are growing over whether ODM is steadily losing its national character and retreating into what critics describe as a predominantly Luo Nyanza political outfit.

The debate has intensified amid deepening internal divisions, with the emergence of rival political formations, and aggressive incursions by competing parties into regions that once formed ODM's electoral backbone.

Professor of Leadership and political analyst Gitile Naituli observes that ODM's troubles run far deeper than leadership succession.

"ODM is already politically dead; it has simply not been buried," he says, predicting that the party could suffer dramatic losses in the 2027 General Election.

He predicts that the party could end up with significantly fewer Members of Parliament than it currently enjoys.

Currently, the party has about 80 elected Members of Parliament and 13 elected Senators across the country. This number, he says, may significantly reduce in the upcoming polls.

For instance, he argues, ODM's dominance in Nairobi has historically depended on a coalition of Luo, Luhya, Kamba and other urban voters united around Raila's reform agenda rather than ethnic identity alone.

"The party has seven MP seats in Nairobi. Once it is cut off from Luyha and Kamba, it can easily be reduced to zero," he told The Sunday Standard.

Political Science lecturer at Moi University Dr Eric Irungu largely agrees with Prof. Naituli, saying the party is gradually losing its grip.  "ODM has not been the same ODM that it has always been," he said.

Naituli said political realignments are also threatening the influence of the party.

The party is already facing stiff competition from the ruling UDA, which has intensified grassroots mobilisation at the Coast and North Eastern Kenya—regions where ODM previously enjoyed considerable influence.

At the same time, Jubilee has been quietly rebuilding structures in Kisii, another region that had increasingly warmed up to ODM in recent election cycles.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua's Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), meanwhile, is seeking to establish itself in the South Rift, particularly in Narok and Kajiado counties, areas where ODM had made important electoral gains through support from the Maasai community.

Already, DCP flipped a Member of County Assembly seat in Narok Town and Kairobangi North wards previously held by the Orange party in last year's by-election.

This was also witnessed in Coast and Western regions in 2022 where President Ruto gained inroads to the detriment of the party.

Collectively, analysts observe a trend of shifts pointing to a shrinking political footprint for a party that once prided itself on being a truly national movement.

Internal wrangles and an imminent split within ODM have, they note, only complicated matters further.

One faction supports continued cooperation with President William Ruto's Kenya Kwanza administration through the broad-based arrangement, while another led by former Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, insists the party should return to its opposition roots.

The Sifuna-led faction is backed by figures such as Embakasi East Babu Owino and Siaya Governor James Orengo, who have hinted at ditching the party.

"A new party is coming, and I will be the party leader. The Secretary-General position will go to Western Kenya, while the chairperson will come from either the Central or Coast region," Babu recently said.

Dr Irungu notes that ODM has fundamentally changed since Raila's death.

"The impact of Baba's demise was immediate because we started seeing fragmentation within the party and growing differences among its leaders."

While holding that the pro-government faction remains numerically stronger, Dr. Irungu argues that the Sifuna-led camp has succeeded in shaping national political conversations and exposing ideological differences within the party.

"The Sifuna factor has created significant political tremors. It has forced ODM to confront difficult questions about its identity and future direction," he says.

Recent opinion polls back this observation. Latest survey by TIFA observed that 74 per cent of ODM supporters prefer Sifuna.

This means that a significant number of the party supporters might shift allegiance to the new political formation in the offing, led by Sifuna, Babu and Orengo.

For Dr. Irungu, however, the central challenge facing ODM is whether it can reinvent itself beyond the personality of its founding leader.

"We must appreciate that ODM was Raila, and Raila was ODM," he said.

"For many years, the party operated under his political shadow. His absence now presents both a crisis and an opportunity."

He argues that leaders who previously relied on Raila's influence must now demonstrate their own independent political appeal.

"Those who believed they could not outshine Raila now have an opportunity to build their own political identities. Equally, those who were accused of surviving purely because of Raila's popularity must now prove they can command support on their own."

Another emerging challenge is the generational shift taking place within Kenya's electorate.

According to Prof Naituli, younger voters—particularly Generation Z—are increasingly driven by governance, accountability and constitutional rights rather than historical political loyalties or ethnic affiliations.

That shift, he argues, has weakened ODM's traditional appeal.

"The young people are not deeply attached to tribal politics. They are looking for good governance," he says.

He believes ODM's decision to cooperate with President Ruto's administration alienated many young supporters who had viewed the party as the country's principal opposition movement.

"ODM was founded in protest against poor governance. Once it joined the government it had spent years criticising, many young people felt betrayed."

In Nyanza, according to Prof Naituli, the formation's traditional nomination model, where Raila's endorsement often determined political fortunes, will effectively collapse following the veteran politician's death.

"Previously, once Raila gave you the ODM ticket, election was almost guaranteed in many parts of Nyanza. That political machinery no longer exists," he observes.

Without the unifying influence of Raila, he argues, many aspirants are likely to contest as independents or under rival political parties, fragmenting ODM's once solid support base in Luo Nyanza itself.

Yet despite the growing challenges, analysts caution against writing ODM's political obituary too soon.

The party, Dr. Irungu believes, still possesses one of the country's most established grassroots networks, experienced leadership and a loyal support base that has remained resilient through previous political storms.

"We have a larger faction that appears to be domiciled in the thinking that they should continue working with UDA as part of the government," he said.

He said what remains uncertain is whether it can successfully redefine its ideology, rebuild national alliances and cultivate a new generation of leaders capable of filling the enormous vacuum left by Raila Odinga.