Most Kenyans reject Broad-Based Government, say country on wrong path

A recent TIFA Research opinion poll indicates that more than half of Kenyans oppose the Broad-Based Government arrangement between President William Ruto and the late Prime Minister Raila Odinga. The poll, released on September 9, reveals that 76 per cent of respondents feel the country is moving in the wrong direction.

“Dissatisfaction with the country’s direction has risen to 76 per cent in June 2026, the highest level recorded across the tracking period and up from 68 per cent in November 2025,” the survey noted. “At the same time, only 15 percent believe Kenya is moving in the right direction, indicating a sustained and increasingly entrenched negative public mood.”

“Over the last two and a quarter years (since March 2023), the figures on Kenya’s perceived direction have fluctuated somewhat, with the highest ‘right direction’ figure obtained in September 2023 (49 per cent),” the report stated.

TIFA’s last five surveys have shown that, apart from May and August of the previous year, support for the Broad-Based Government among Kenyans has remained just below one-third, with support in May recorded at less than one-quarter (22 per cent).

The current support level mirrors that of May (30 per cent), suggesting that the ongoing division within ODM regarding support for the President’s re-election bid has created a fairly stable ceiling on the potential backing for the Broad-Based Government.

In President Ruto’s stronghold of the South Rift, 82 per cent of respondents indicated that they believe the country is going in the wrong direction. This week, the President commenced a development tour in the counties of Bomet and Kericho, where he is expected to launch new projects and engage with residents.

However, in the Mount Kenya region, 90 per cent of respondents expressed concern that the country is heading in the wrong direction, with only five percent believing it is moving positively. Similarly, in the Nairobi and Lower Eastern regions, 89 per cent and 83 per cent of residents, respectively, reported that they feel the country is on the wrong path.

Regionally, the most optimistic residents are found in the Northern and Central Rift zones, though even there, positive sentiments are held by fewer than half (38 per cent and 24 per cent, respectively).

The poll also revealed that another 15 percent of respondents had no opinion, while four percent were unaware of the coalition between the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

"Among all Kenyans, nearly twice as many express opposition to the Broad-Based Government as those who say they support it," TIFA stated in the report, noting that the remainder either had no opinion or were unaware of the arrangement.

The findings stem from TIFA's first national survey of 2026, conducted from June 13 to June 22 among 2,048 randomly selected adults across all 47 counties, with a margin of error of ±2.18 per cent.

TIFA reported that support for the Broad-Based Government has remained "just below one-third" in its last five surveys, with two exceptions, a low of 22 per cent in May 2025 and a high of 44 per cent in August 2025.

The current support figure of 30 percent aligns with TIFA's findings from May 2026, indicating "a fairly stable ceiling" on the arrangement's potential backing, a trend linked to the widening split within ODM regarding support for Ruto's re-election bid.

Among respondents who supported the Broad-Based Government, slightly over half (55 per cent) believe the country is moving in a negative direction, compared to 88 per cent (more than three-quarters) of those who do not support the arrangement.

The survey also found that opinions on the Broad-Based Government closely mirror broader political sentiments. Among supporters of the Broad-Based Government, 30 per cent believe Kenya is headed in the right direction, compared to just five percent of opponents.

Trust in President Ruto reflects a similar divide; 22 per cent of Broad-Based Government supporters report having "a lot" of trust in him, while only six percent of opponents feel the same. Notably, 19 per cent of Broad-Based Government supporters themselves express no trust in the President at all.

Economic pressures remain significant, with limited improvements affecting household confidence. Two-thirds of Kenyans still feel worse off than before the 2022 election, and the declining share reporting improvements since May suggests that any economic recovery is yet to be widely experienced at the household level.

A strong 82 percent support peaceful and lawful demonstrations, affirming protests as a legitimate form of public expression.

However, when violence occurs, 42 per cent said they attributed primary responsibility to the National Government or the President, while 24 percent held the police accountable, indicating a preference to place accountability on the state rather than on protesters or opportunistic criminals.

Across all key institutions, public trust remains below 40 per cent, indicating a significant confidence deficit. However, supporters of the Broad-Based Government exhibit more positive sentiments towards these institutions.

Regarding the controversial Ebola centre in Laikipia, 69 per cent of respondents opposed its establishment, with only 21 percent expressing support. TIFA interprets this as indicative of an information and public confidence gap surrounding the facility's establishment.