ODM at crossroads one year after Raila's death

One year after the death of Raila Amolo Odinga, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is confronting a political reality that would have been difficult to imagine during the lifetime of the man who built and dominated it.

For the first time since it emerged as a major political force  in 2007, the party is preparing for a General Election without fielding its own presidential candidate, having instead resolved to support President William Ruto’s re-election.

The decision marks a dramatic departure for a party whose political fortunes were built around challenging successive governments, mobilising millions of voters behind Raila’s presidential ambitions and presenting itself as the country’s principal opposition party.

It has also exposed a deeper question facing the Orange movement as the country prepares to mark the first anniversary of Raila’s death on October 15: What exactly is ODM without the man who gave it political meaning for nearly two decades?

To a section of Raila’s supporters and political observers, his death in Kochi, India, did not merely remove ODM’s party leader. It removed the political centre around which the party had organised its ambitions, alliances and electoral strategy since 2007.

Whether he ran directly on the ODM ticket or through coalition vehicles such as CORD, NASA and Azimio, Raila remained the common denominator of Kenya’s principal opposition movement, contesting the presidency in 2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022.

ODM’s roots can be traced to the 2005 constitutional referendum, when the Orange campaign emerged as a powerful political force before evolving into a political party. Its identity was subsequently shaped by Raila’s pursuit of State House and a reform agenda that included constitutional change, devolution, equitable development, democratic freedoms and opposition to what the party portrayed as political exclusion.

That identity is now under considerable strain as ODM attempts to reposition itself in a political environment without its founder and most powerful mobiliser.

The clearest indication of this transformation came in July, when ODM leader Oburu Oginga announced that the party would not field a presidential candidate in 2027 but would instead support Ruto’s re-election.

The announcement represented a fundamental shift in the party’s electoral strategy, particularly because ODM’s national relevance had for years been tied to its ability to mobilise voters around a presidential candidate.

“I want to make it official that ODM will not field a presidential candidate in the next year's general election. Instead, we are going to support President Ruto to be elected again for a second term,” Oburu said, arguing that Ruto had demonstrated political goodwill by incorporating ODM politicians into his administration.

“We didn't vote for this government, but we were incorporated through the backdoor because Ruto loved us,” Oburu added, framing the new relationship as an opportunity for the party and its traditional supporters to participate directly in government.

The decision has effectively altered the political proposition ODM is offering its supporters.

For years, the party’s central question was how it could capture State House. Now, its leadership is asking how much political influence it can secure by supporting the occupant of State House.

Oburu has repeatedly urged Nyanza residents to register in large numbers so that the region can strengthen its bargaining position in negotiations over the next government.

“This time we are going to form the next government officially through the front door,” he said.

For ODM, however, the pursuit of influence through government comes at a political cost because it risks blurring the distinction between the Orange party and Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

The party can argue that cooperation is a pragmatic response to changing political circumstances and an opportunity to secure development projects and appointments for regions that have traditionally supported the opposition. But the strategy has also created an identity crisis among members who believe ODM’s historical role was to provide an alternative to the government of the day.

Political analyst David Owino describes Kenya’s changing political environment as increasingly transactional and post-ideological, with political formations more focused on negotiating access to power than presenting clearly defined ideological alternatives.

“The 2027 election will provide the first major test of whether ODM's institutional machinery can survive the disappearance of its dominant political figure,” Owino notes.

His assessment captures the dilemma facing ODM: a party can lose elections and remain politically relevant if its opposition identity is clearly understood. But it now risks losing that distinction as it moves closer to government.

“A year after Raila's death, the most important question for ODM is no longer who can become the next enigma. It is whether the outfit can define a political identity of its own before the voters who once followed Raila decide to find new political homes,” Owino explains.

Sifuna challenge exposes divisions

The  internal disagreement has become increasingly visible, particularly through the emergence of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna as one of the most prominent voices challenging the direction taken by the party leadership.

Sifuna, who served as ODM secretary-general and was one of Raila’s most recognisable lieutenants, has transformed his Linda Mwananchi campaign into a broader opposition platform, attracting politicians and supporters who reject the party’s growing cooperation with Ruto.

The significance of Sifuna’s challenge goes beyond a disagreement between individual politicians. It represents a contest over the future of the Orange movement itself.

While the Oburu-led leadership argues that working with Ruto offers ODM an opportunity to influence government and protect the interests of its traditional constituencies, Sifuna and his allies maintain that the party’s relevance depends on preserving an independent opposition identity.

The disagreement has spilled into grassroots politics, with rival mobilisation activities associated with ODM and Linda Mwananchi exposing the extent to which the movement has fractured since Raila’s death.

Sifuna’s growing profile has also demonstrated that the political space once dominated by Raila is now open to competition. A TIFA poll in June reportedly showed him emerging as the preferred presidential candidate among a significant section of ODM supporters.

The development has exposed the fragmentation of the voting blocs that once formed the backbone of Raila’s political coalition, stretching across Luo Nyanza, Gusii, Western Kenya, Nairobi and the Coast.

Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, another former senior ODM official who has aligned himself with Sifuna’s camp, has openly rejected the direction taken by the party he once served as deputy party leader.

“We all knew when Raila was alive that the protection of Article 37 of the Constitution, which guarantees every person the right to assemble, demonstrate, picket and present petitions peacefully and unarmed, was supreme. ODM can't even speak of this now,” Osotsi said while declaring his support for Sifuna, the leader of the Linda Mwananchi movement.

Osotsi has gone further, declaring that ODM’s influence in Western counties, including Vihiga, Kakamega and Busia, as well as the limited support it enjoyed in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia, has waned.

But Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa insists that the party remains firmly rooted in the region and continues to support the broad-based government arrangement.

“Western region is fully an ODM zone and, in that line, supports the broad-based government arrangement and the re-election of Ruto as the president in the next General Election,” Barasa said.

This reflects the position of the current party leadership as it seeks to demonstrate that ODM remains intact and capable of surviving the loss of its longtime leader.

National chairperson Gladys Wanga, Deputy Party Leaders Abdulswamad Nassir and Simba Arati, and campaign director Junet Mohamed have emerged as some of the most visible figures defending the new direction while working to keep the party’s structures and political base together.

Wanga has repeatedly dismissed suggestions that ODM is facing a leadership vacuum or losing its grip on its traditional support base, arguing that the party has collectively embraced the broad-based arrangement with President William Ruto.

“The broad-based arrangement is a political arrangement as a strategy through which ODM can negotiate for influence in the next government. We will get in and do negotiations. We will negotiate for the rightful share of the ODM party,” she said.

Arati, meanwhile, has focused on maintaining ODM’s bargaining power within the arrangement, insisting that cooperation with Ruto should translate into a substantive political stake for the party.

He has argued that if Ruto retains the presidency, ODM should secure the Deputy President position.

The rebellion among senior party figures has nevertheless exposed a structural weakness that was largely concealed during Raila’s lifetime.

Although ODM still has formal structures, elected officials and a national network, much of its grassroots loyalty was closely tied to Raila himself.

Davison Muruli, a former ODM Vihiga branch secretary-general who has since shifted to the Sifuna camp, observes that many supporters joined ODM because of Raila and that his political following cannot automatically be transferred to another leader.

“The problem becomes more apparent when ODM's traditional voting blocs are examined. Raila's political strength was confined to Western, Nyanza and those regions are gone,” Muruli said.

In the 2022 election, for example, Raila secured overwhelming support in Nyanza and performed strongly across Western Kenya, Nairobi and the Coast, while Ruto consolidated his support in the Rift Valley and Central Kenya.

The result was a closely contested election in which each side’s ability to mobilise regional voting blocs was central to the presidential outcome.

Raila’s death has not eliminated those regional constituencies, but it has weakened the political force that once brought them together.

Instead of rallying behind a single national figure, voters in these regions are now being courted by competing political projects, making Western Kenya and Nyanza key battlegrounds ahead of 2027.

Battle for Raila’s political base

Western Kenya illustrates the change particularly clearly. The region has more than 2.6 million registered voters and was one of the most important pillars of Raila’s electoral coalition. Politicians are now pursuing different strategies to win its support.

Ruto’s administration is seeking to deepen its presence in the region through the broad-based government arrangement. ODM is attempting to retain its traditional structures, while Linda Mwananchi is positioning the region as a launchpad for a wider opposition movement.

Political analyst Moses Ombayo argues that ODM retains an important advantage because of the structures and political base it has established over the years, particularly in Luo Nyanza and parts of Western Kenya. He cautions, however, that political structures do not automatically translate into transferable votes.

“Leaders can cross the political divide overnight. Voters do not necessarily cross with them,” Ombayo observes.

He adds that the distinction could prove critical in 2027 because ODM’s leadership is effectively betting that the party’s established regional networks can deliver supporters behind an agreement reached by its national leadership.

Raila’s absence has also changed the nature of national political discourse. During his lifetime, a major political declaration from him could immediately alter the national conversation, whether the subject was constitutional reform, electoral justice, corruption, governance or democratic freedoms.

“Kenya misses this in ODM. Raila's statements regularly became national political events and forced both government and opposition actors to respond,” Ombayo notes.