Opposition unity dream headache as rival camps set to hold rallies

Opposition leaders are heading into a politically charged week, with rival factions preparing to hold separate rallies. And President William Ruto plans a three-day tour of the Gusii region that could further complicate efforts by rivals to forge a united front ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka and DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa are expected to address a joint rally in Kitengela town, Kajiado County, on Sunday.

The rally was announced by Kajiado Senator Ole Seki Lenku, who is also seeking the county's governor seat, through his social media platforms on Wednesday. He welcomed supporters to turn out in large numbers at the rally. Linda Mwananchi has held large rallies in the populous township in the past.

The meeting comes as another opposition faction prepares to hold public engagements in Limuru and Wangige, Kiambu County, bringing together Jubilee Party leader Fred Matiang’i, People's Liberation Party leader Martha Karua and People's Party of Kenya leader Ndindi Nyoro.

The parallel political activities expose the growing divisions within the opposition, with leaders pursuing separate strategies as they seek to build a coalition capable of challenging President Ruto.

The disagreements within the opposition started to be more pronounced after the launch of the Linda Mwananchi movement, where Gachagua suggested that he, Kalonzo and Sifuna had sufficient political strength to form a coalition capable of defeating Ruto.

The remarks appeared to unsettle members of the rival faction, who have been calling for broader consultations before the opposition settles on its presidential candidate and coalition arrangements.

Matiang’i described what he termed majoritarian arrogance as a threat to opposition unity.

“That majoritarian arrogance and that particular pride is precisely what is going to split the opposition and make it very difficult for the opposition to come together,” Matiang’i said.

Gachagua later challenged his critics to demonstrate their political strength instead of questioning his approach to mobilisation.

The former Deputy President singled out Matiang’i and Democratic Party leader Justin Muturi, telling them not to address him as though he were their child.

He argued that leaders seeking positions in a future coalition should first demonstrate their ability to mobilise voters and bring their support to the negotiating table.

“Go out and mobilise numbers. Don't just sit. Nobody will be given the presidency on a silver platter.”

Gachagua also questioned the rival faction's ability to defeat Ruto, insisting that political influence should be measured by the number of supporters a leader can command.

He maintained that he would not mobilise voters only to surrender the presidency to a candidate he had not agreed to support.

“No one should imagine that Gachagua’s job is to go out and hunt for votes to bring votes to your comfort zone. I will only work with like-minded leaders,” he said.

The disagreements have raised questions about whether the opposition can agree on a common strategy before the election campaign gathers momentum.

The divisions are likely to attract greater attention as the President prepares to tour Nyamira and Kisii counties for three days from Monday, in what is expected to be a major political blandishment in a region where Matiang’i has considerable political influence.

National Assembly Majority Whip Silvanus Osoro has described the visit as critical, promising major announcements during the tour.

“Major announcements will also be made during this visit. Expect surprises,” Osoro said.

The tour is expected to provide the President and his allies with an opportunity to consolidate support in the region while putting pressure on Matiang’i, who seems to be sidelined in the Sifuna, Gachagua and Mating’I pact.

It also comes at a time when disagreements over leadership and the formation of a joint opposition coalition have become increasingly pronounced.

The President's visit to Gusii is likely to add another dimension to the opposition's internal contest, particularly as his allies will seek to position the government as a viable political alternative to Matiang’i's ambitions.

The expected political offensive could see leaders allied to the President take sides in the ongoing opposition disagreements, potentially deepening the differences between rival camps.

The strategy would mirror the political approach witnessed during Ruto's recent engagements in Ukambani, where government leaders appeared keen to portray Kalonzo as increasingly isolated within the opposition while urging him to work with the President.

During the tour, Ruto made remarks suggesting that Kalonzo could play a role in his administration.

“God is using me to build roads, God is using me to bring water, and God is using me to improve medical services. And God is using Kalonzo to help me with the announcing,” Ruto said.

The remarks were widely interpreted as an attempt to draw Kalonzo closer to the government while creating the impression that his position within the opposition was becoming increasingly difficult.

A similar approach in Gusii could see the President's allies seek to exploit the disagreements surrounding Matiang’i's role in the opposition coalition.

For Matiang’i, the visit could test his ability to retain political influence in his home region as the President seeks to strengthen his foothold ahead of the next election.

For the Linda Mwananchi movement, the planned return to Kitengela comes with memories of a previous rally that ended in violence.

On February 15, the movement held a major gathering in the town, but the event was disrupted after police officers fired teargas into the crowd as Sifuna and other leaders addressed supporters.

The confrontation forced the meeting to end prematurely, leaving several people injured. A 28-year-old man was also shot dead during the incident.

The planned return to Kitengela is therefore likely to attract attention, particularly given the circumstances surrounding the earlier meeting and the political tensions that have since intensified.

The leaders' appearance together will also provide an opportunity to demonstrate that their cooperation extends beyond public statements and can translate into a coordinated political campaign.

Meanwhile, the separate engagements in Limuru and Wangige will offer Matiang’i and his allies an opportunity to consolidate their political base and advance their push for broader consultations within the opposition.

The two sets of meetings highlight the emerging divisions within the opposition, with leaders increasingly conducting political activities in separate groups instead of presenting a united front.

With the President preparing to tour Gusii, the opposition's internal disagreements could provide an opening for the government to strengthen its political position while putting pressure on rival leaders.

The coming week will therefore be a test of whether the opposition can contain its differences and establish a common strategy, or whether competing political interests will continue to weaken its efforts to challenge Ruto.

For now, the parallel rallies in Kajiado and Kiambu, alongside the President's planned tour of Gusii, underscore the difficult task facing opposition leaders as they attempt to build a coalition while navigating disagreements over leadership, strategy and political influence.