Clans, national politics, money to shape Malava mini-poll outcome

The Malava by-election is proving to be more than a constituency affair but rather a litmus test on the popularity of President William Ruto and the United Opposition ahead of the 2027 general election.

The hotly contested mini-poll has attracted nine candidates. Still, the race so far has narrowed down to a gruelling epic battle between David Ndakwa of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Seth Panyako of the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K).

However, as locals await to vote on 27th November 2025 to elect their new Member of Parliament (MP) following the death of MP Malulu Injendi, observers believe the outcome of the mini-poll is likely to be influenced by clanism politics, performance by the government, regional and national politics, and money.

In the constituency, President Ruto's foot soldiers are spending big and have deployed a complete political machinery to bring the prize home.

Among those who have been leading campaigns and dishing out monetary support to residents include the President's aide Farouk Kibet.

As a political saying goes, politics is local. In Malava Constituency, clan politics has for years played a critical role in determining the area MP.

Malava has three major clans that will be key in determining the outcome. The Abashu clan is the most popular clan, followed by Abatovo and Abasonje.

UDA candidate Ndakwa comes from the Abashu, which is the largest clan, but a number of his votes are likely to be reduced by a businessman, Wilberforce Tuvei, under the Kenya Moja Movement, who comes from the same clan and is touted as a third force in the race.

DAP-K candidate Panyako comes from Abatovo, which is the largest clan, and clanism politics seem to favour him.

The death of Enock Andaje, who was a man to beat, has made Panyako the only candidate from his clan, and to make work easier for him in consolidating his clan, Caleb Burudi and Caleb Sunguti have all dropped out of the race and are supporting Ndakwa. However, the clan seems to be backing one of their own, who is Panyako.

Abasonje is the third largest clan where the late Malulu comes from. The clan has no candidate. This is after Ryan Malulu, the son of the late MP, lost during the UDA nomination and accused Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi of rigging him out.

Furthermore, DCP candidate Edgar Busiega, who also hails from the clan, bowed out of the race and backed Panyako, making the clan a swing vote.

Whoever between Ndakwa and Panyako will convince the clan to vote for him is likely to carry the day. Ndakwa has been a Member of the County Assembly for Kabras West for two terms, while for Panyako, this is his second stab at the MP seat after losing narrowly to the late Malulu in 2022.

Joshua Anagatia was the first MP for Malava and came from the Avasamu clan, which was the smallest clan. He enjoyed the backing of the Abasonje clan, which made him the MP twice.

Soita Shitanda hailed from the Avashivika clan, another small clan, but enjoyed the support of the Abashu clan before he was defeated by the late Malulu, who enjoyed the backing of all small clans across the area.

However, the government has been accused of unleashing the state machinery by splashing millions to influence the outcome of the Malava by-election, which has become a factor in the mini-poll.

"Mr Ruto is using taxpayers' money to bribe people of Malava to vote for his candidate, but we want to tell our Malava people to eat the money and vote for Panyako because this is a vote to change the leadership of this country and people's lives," said Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka while campaigning for Panyako in Malava town on Friday.

Malava is a sugar-growing area, and both candidates have been promising to uplift the fortunes of cane farmers by pushing for a rise in cane tonnage, farm inputs, and improved infrastructure to enable the transportation of raw materials to cane millers.

Additionally, the Malava outcome is likely to be shaped by regional politics at play.

Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula, and Cooperative Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya, who are supporting Ndakwa, are facing Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, DAP-K Party Leader Eugene Wamalwa and Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale, who are supporting Panyako in a show of might to control the region.

Governor Natembeya, who is leading the onslaught against Mudavadi, Wetangula, and Oparanya, is accusing the leaders of neglecting the region while pushing for their own agenda, maintaining that the outcome of Malava is poised to restore the dignity of the Luhya region in national politics.

"Malava by-election is not about individuals, it is about restoring the dignity of our region, considering our large population and votes. If Malava people vote in Panyako, it means our region will be respected because we are seeing a scenario where outsiders, being directed by President Ruto, want to dictate to our people on who to elect, and we must refuse," said Natembeya.

Natembeya, who is in the United Opposition camp, maintains that the region must speak in one voice to vote out President Ruto, who has failed the country.

"We must liberate this country from the poor leadership of President Ruto; he has totally failed, and that is why Luhya people must unite not under Mudavadi and Wetangula but under like-minded and development-oriented leaders, and I am ready to lead the course," said Natembeya.

However, on national politics, Wetangula and Mudavadi, while campaigning for Ndakwa yesterday, said their push is to solidify the community’s political clout ahead of the November by-election and 2027 General Election, which is geared for the Presidency after Ruto's tenure.

Wetang'ula emphasised that a united front was essential for the region’s strategic positioning within national leadership.

“We will not abuse anyone but move ahead as one unit. Unlike our competitors, we know our history and we will not jeopardise our chances going into these November 27th by-elections and even looking into the future," said Wetangula.

He added, “My brothers Musalia Mudavadi, Wycliffe Oparanya, and I have come here to tell you that we are speaking one language on how to move our people forward. Let no one confuse you, Western Kenya must walk together if we are to claim our rightful space in national politics.”

Wetang’ula observed that unity had become the community’s strongest bargaining tool and that the Malava by-election was an opportunity for the Luhya nation to demonstrate political maturity.

“This election is not just about Malava. It is about showing Kenya that the Luhya nation is organised, focused, and ready to lead,” he said.

Mudavadi acknowledged that the Malava by-election is a test for the popularity of the Kenya Kwanza government.

However, Mudavadi said President Ruto has done a lot in terms of development and infrastructure in the Western region, and Malava people should elect the UDA candidate to guarantee the region a greater say in the government and take over the country's leadership after Ruto's tenure.

“We now have a realistic opportunity to ascend to the presidency through President William Ruto in 2032. This journey requires discipline, unity, and clarity of purpose. Supporting Ndakwa today strengthens our footing for tomorrow," said Mudavadi.