The long shadow of fear stalking the country will ruin economy

In the aftermath of the GenZ protests, a long shadow of fear stalks our no longer young nation.

The fear seems to compete favourably with Covid-19 or the floods earlier in the year, the two other disasters that recently shocked our faith in science and ourselves.

The new fear is amorphous. Most people do not know what they are fearing. Is it the government because of reported abductions? Is it joblessness because the economy has not grown fast enough? Is it Sacco money vanishing? Is it retirement dues not paid on time? Is it children falling out of school for lack of school fees? Is it fear that our institutions could buckle under pressure?

There is also fear from afar, that war in Ukraine could go the other way with Ukraine losing and Russians getting into the gates of Western Europe. That war in Gaza could spill over into Lebanon or Israel and Iran gets into an all-out war. Or that Trump II is nigh.

It does not matter if it’s in the workplace or home, nor within our borders or outside. Fear hangs over our land like morning mist in the White Highlands or smog over the city. Where did it come from? Will it disperse like morning dew?

Let’s be blunt; there was fear long before the GenZ protests. The protests and the aftermath just reinforced the fears. Remember Kenya has been under the fear of Al-Shabaab for over a decade, with its bombings sending a chill of fear through the establishment. Today you must be searched before entering malls, institutions and even places of worship.

The fear of Al-Shabaab was an echo from September 11, 2001, when the world's remaining superpower, the United States of America, was shaken by a terror attack. I was in the Deep South, awaiting the fate of a classmate who was in New York City. He came home.

September 11 was the first layer of fear, the second was Al-Shabaab. The third layer was Covid-19. The current fourth layer is different from the other three because it’s internal.

Think of fear in the home emanating from one of the parents or children. It’s very hard to understand it or even eliminate it. Friends or neighbours will say “That is domestic affairs". The fear in Kenya has the same connotation. Even outsiders are silent. Remember when envoys used to issue regular statements?

What is driving the current fear? The layer has two blades like a pair of scissors. One is politics. Election results that are too close leaves the winner in fear of the other key contestant who has a critical mass of followers. It should not surprise you that handshakes have become the modus operandi in the political system. And if the next election will be close, expect another handshake!

That fear cascades to the lower levels; that the winners will lose to losers. One popular belief is that you gain more by being a loser in the Kenyan polls. You get a handshake, onto the boards, and other big positions. The fear that the loser could win next time is real and drives our politics.

Voters now fear their vote does not matter. When I found an impassable road in Central Kenya recently, I was told where the roads have gone. Guess the answer.

The other blade is economics. Slow economic growth and inequality have made many citizens very vulnerable. Those employed fear for their jobs. They will do anything to safeguard their jobs and silence laced with fear is the best strategy. You never know how your contribution in meetings will be taken.

The self-employed fear their livelihood will be destroyed by new laws, regulations, taxes, or just malice. Many decisions are often taken either to control or punish, rarely to help or encourage entrepreneurs. Want to contest that? The decision-makers on economic matters are often shielded by salaries and perks. Why bother to think through decisions unless they affect the vote basket?

Think of kiosks brought down one morning or riots that burn your only source of income. Add age-old grudges, some with live wires to the politics, and fear becomes real. Why do we think informality is abnormal?

What next? Fear leads to a change in behaviour. Have you noted that in matatus, in homes, workplaces and even online? Noted the popularity of parties, how else do you disperse that fear? Others want to leave the country and start their lives again. Job changes are another avenue to disperse fear.

Add silence and anger. Many people do not want to be bothered, they want to be left alone to run their lives. Others turn this fear into anger and victims are those closest to them - family or co-workers. What drug, alcohol substance abuse, and emotional activity drains lots of energy with minimal motion?

At the national level, fear leads to the death of innovation. When no one wants to talk or share ideas, old ways persist. Without innovation, economies atrophy and the whole country is a loser. Remember the freedom that the Kibaki era ushered and shortened the long shadow of fear under Kanu.

Fear has never been an effective political or economic tool for running the country. Ask why the communism experiment could not last beyond 70 years. How long has democracy and freedom flourished?

Let’s shorten the long shadow of fear and get the freedom divide. Over to the men and women we queued to vote for before daybreak.