This could be end game of Iran war

The 12-day war in 2025 that pitted Iran against Israel and the United States (US) seems to have been a dress rehearsal for the current war. The 12 days tested Iran’s defences and possibly led Israel and the US to identify Iran’s weakness and strength. 

Why are the US and Israel so determined to fight Iran? Iran, we must remember, is not just a country, it’s also a civilisation which gives it confidence and a deep cultural and spiritual anchor. 

Remember the Indian, Chinese, Mayan, Aztec, Egyptian and other civilisations? 

The key reason given is that Iran must not develop a nuclear bomb. The bomb seems to be a preserve of only a few countries. That includes North Korea, declared a rogue State, but can’t be attacked because it has “nuclear deterrence.” Is that what Iran wants? 

The other reason is about power. The United States and Israel don’t want a countervailing force in an oil-producing region. Remember, President Trump is a fan of fossil fuels?

The strategic significance of this region means it should be controlled. Directly through war or indirectly through allies that host military bases. The Middle East is hard to control ideologically because of faith and money. 

A third reason is historical. The US was very influential in Iran before the revolution in 1979. She lost that influence with the new government led by religious leaders with a supreme leader, Ayatollah, at the top.

It is likely that American leaders have always wanted to “take revenge” on this loss. Have they played the long game?

The US influence has met setbacks in Vietnam and, more recently, Afghanistan. Could attacking and subjugating Iran exorcise some of these ghosts? 

Others think the US is replicating the “success” in Venezuela. Fourth reason, and I hope it’s not true, is to distract the US and Israel leaders from internal issues like corruption charges and Epstein files. 

What’s the end game? 

First, the price of oil will go up as the supply is disrupted. Oil flows through narrow straits: Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb. Let’s wait for the price review next week. Higher oil prices will lead to inflation. Luckily, in Kenya, it’s raining, and the oil price rise will be muted by falling food prices. Oil prices will go up in the US, leading to a political backlash.

The oil producers in the Gulf will make less money, and their food supplies could be disrupted. They are mostly deserts. The key oil buyers like China, Japan and  India will feel the pinch.

Both oil exporters and importers will suffer. That could pressure the US and Israel to halt the fighting. 

The Iran war could have unintended consequences; Russia could fill the Middle East oil shortage and sell oil to key economies like China at a good price.

That will give her money to wage the Ukrainian war. China could also threaten to take Taiwan to force the US and Israel to go slow. Will this war accelerate the shift to renewables and electric cars and reduce oil dependency?  

What of remittances from the Gulf and other countries? That could reduce and put pressure on the shilling and inflation. Remember the popularity of Gulf jobs, more so after the current government came to power? Tourism will be hit. The Middle East, particularly the United Arab Emirates are popular destination.

Add the pilgrimage to Mecca. It feels like a Covid-19 crisis.  One local joke is that “investments”  to this region from Kenya will slow down. 

It seems countries with regimes unfriendly to the US should shape up or face the wrath of Donald Trump.

Will this lead to the flowering of democracy or American global leadership? Who will be the next victim after Iran? Any from Africa? 

How about exploiting and exporting our oil before the death of the internal combustion engine?  Does the Iran war demonstrate why Africa free trade area should be actualised?

Have we forgotten that lots of fertiliser raw materials come from the Middle East? Will food prices rise due to reduced harvests? We used to plant crops without fertilisers, but not anymore. 

What of disruption in trade made worse by our interconnectedness?

Kurdish minorities

Will that reduce the global growth rate? Could this be one reason the war will end soon? One ominous sign is that the US and its allies could outsource boots to Kurds.

That will destabilise Türkiye, Syria, Iraq and Iran with Kurdish minorities.  

It’s still early, remember the Ukraine war is ongoing after four years? Wars, including world wars, have a life of their own. We hope the economic consequences of the Iran war will end it soon.

Why are China and Russia so silent on the Iran war? Many other countries are silent too; they don’t want to be caught on the wrong side.  How will the Iran war end? Like Afghanistan? Iraqi or Vietnam? Whichever way, we shall all feel the war in our pockets and emotions.

Finally, how do we reconcile the war in Iran with the Christian values that the West stand for?