No free ride: The likely factors to settle 2027 polls

Maybe it’s a sign of ageing; I have lately found myself drinking from three fountains of wisdom: academia, traditions, and common sense.

Academia loves precedents, citations or quoting others. That builds credence but holds us hostage to old ideas and a few gurus. 

Wisdom is muted because we are protected from reality and love experience from elsewhere. We even quote Western scholars on voodoo and witchcraft.

The other fountain is common sense. Despite the years in school, ordinary Kenyans keep amazing me with their ingenuity and practical innovations.

How did they go through Covid -19, hard economic times, and other crises without reference to textbooks?

The third fountain is our traditions. There is infinite wisdom within our proverbs and wise sayings. Unfortunately, we think that is inferior and old-fashioned.

Curiously, as I grow older, I am fascinated by how our traditional proverbs can be matched to modern economic laws.

Enough on fountains of wisdom. Today we use the traditional fountain of wisdom with a proverb from "mrima" (Mt Kenya region).

You can get an equivalent from your village or hamlet. My dad and my lower primary school teacher, Joseph Wambugu Kiragu, were my fountains of wisdom.

May both rest in peace. They say in "mrima", maguta makùrù matinaga rwìmbo (you can’t use old perfume for a ceremony, or simply put, perfume is not recycled!).

This will apply to the 2027 polls. Old tricks can’t be recycled. We used the hustler-dynasty tale to stir our emotions. We used religion to hypnotise Kenyans. We used economics to convince Kenyans that with a new government, the golden age was nigh.

What will determine the winners in 2027?

Let’s start by stating that Kenya has become a two-party, or better, two-coalition country. Since the 2010 Constitution, the polls have been won by a very narrow margin, around 200,000 votes.

That could mean the leaders have their core followers.  Raila Odinga had such a block. That is why ODM thrived. His contestants cobbled together a coalition around the election time. That is about to be repeated in 2027.  Do you need to ask why ODM had to be split?

The two-party or coalition system means our political market has matured, just like Coca-Cola vs Pepsi-Cola.

The implication for this is that the 2027 polls will be won based on who will build better coalitions. The coalitions will be based on ethnicity (yes), regions and historical grudges and stereotypes.

Remember the hyena? An old style will be tested: divide and rule. Add new identities and amplified differences. You will hear of new tribes and clans! The two-coalition system means any vote really matters and its value goes up, except for the Ol Kalou effect.

Ol Kalou aside, money will still matter. You still need to meet the voters; they love to see their leaders, be entertained and “rewarded".

The economic reality means voters will still take money. In a tightly contested election, that can make a difference; it’s 50+ 1. 

Who has the money to sway the voters?  Did I hear we are capping the campaign spending? Should I laugh?

Emotions will still matter. What will replace the hustler vs dynasty narrative?

What will replace religion? What will anger or excite the voters? Lately, anger is repackaged as optimism and futurism - Vision 2060.  

This is where propaganda and spinning work. Add scapegoating. Politicians love dustbins!

Let’s ask who has the swing block. In 2002, Raila said Kibaki tosha (Kibaki is enough) and used his “swing block” to tilt the political scales.

Who will say someone tosha in 2027?

Who has a political block big enough to tilt the scales? Let me not give political parties free publicity. Presidential candidates and running mates will consider the heaviest voter blocks. Emotions could override that.

Let’s not forget outside influence. Do you recall the Rironi-Mau Summit Road contract shifting from French to Chinese contractors?

Have you followed the debate over rare earth metals at Mrima Hills in Kwale? We may celebrate our independence, but we have life wires to many capitals: Beijing, London, Paris, Washington, Dubai, Ankara, and Pretoria, among others.

Which leader in Kenya will take care of strategic interests beyond the borders? Which capitals has our president visited? 

One overthinker has even wondered if our beyond-the-border in-laws will matter in 2027. Back to mrima, we say ngarì ihìtagwo nì mundù na mùthoniwe (a leopard is hunted by someone and his in-laws.

A leopard is hard to hunt and dangerous; you need someone who can’t run away: your in-laws. Which man has ever failed to pick up his mother-in-law's call? Remember how kingdoms used to intermarry to keep peace and power?

What of Gen Z? Will they regroup in 2027 and vote? After 2024, this group was left scared and scarred. Will it take revenge at the ballot box? Will they turn their keyboards into votes?

Ultimately, our own suffering will determine our voting pattern. In the last four years, many are feeling the political and economic weight. Are you now better off or worse off? This feeling will compete with propaganda, half-truths, pseudo-truths, and truths to sway voters, except for a blitz of opinion polls and fake news.

The process itself will determine the winner. Will it be peaceful and inclusive? Will ICT work? One also hopes the gap between the winner and the “loser” will be big enough to let democracy flourish without handshakes and backroom deals. 

Finally, boardroom and backroom deals will matter. Those in government and opposition are frenemies, friends and enemies at the same time.

They cut deals as the rest of us fight each other and lose temper. We are the collateral damage. Is it true that Jomo Kenyatta and Nelson Mandela cut deals with their tormentors? What have I left as a key determinant of voting patterns in 2027?