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Gaza ceasefire faces hurdle but not collapsing yet, say analysts

Asia

By AFP | Feb 25, 2025

**Dana Shem Tov (C) the sister of Israeli hostage Omer Shem Tov reacts as she watches with others his televised release by Hamas militants at the family home in Tel Aviv on February 22, 2025.** [AFP]

Gaza's fragile five-week truce faces a major hurdle with Israel's refusal to release Palestinian prisoners, but analysts say the ceasefire is likely to hold as Washington pushes for its extension.

"It's actually the most complicated crisis since the beginning of the ceasefire," Palestinian affairs expert Michael Milshtein of Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center told AFP.

While previous obstacles have tested the truce -- including Hamas's threat to stop releasing hostages over alleged violations of the ceasefire including insufficient aid entering Gaza -- Milshtein emphasised that "this time, it is even more complicated."

On Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suspended the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, after militants freed six hostages.

He condemned what he described as "humiliating ceremonies" by Hamas to free hostages in Gaza.

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Palestinian militants had in the weeks prior paraded Israeli captives and later displayed black coffins containing deceased hostages on stage, sparking outrage across Israel.

Netanyahu went further on Sunday, warning that Israel was ready to "resume intense fighting at any moment" in the Palestinian territory.

'Buying time'

Hamas, in turn, warned that Israel's decision jeopardises the "entire agreement", stopping short of promising a return to fighting.

Yet, despite the escalating rhetoric, both sides appear intent on maintaining the ceasefire, according to Milshtein.

"Hamas really wants to implement phase one of the deal because on Saturday, the IDF (military) is meant to start leaving the Philadelphi Corridor," he noted, referring to a strategic strip that runs along Gaza’s border with Egypt.

For Israel, Mairav Zonszein, an analyst from the International Crisis Group, said that Netanyahu was also stuck "in the same quagmire of trying to get hostages out while trying to get rid of the people holding those hostages".

"I think Netanyahu is kind of doing what he does best, which is dragging things out, buying time, trying to see if he can leverage withholding these prisoners," she said.

Zonszein noted that Israeli public opinion is putting pressure on Netanyahu to uphold the ceasefire, particularly as more hostages are seen "coming out alive".

Some analysts suggest that Israel's tougher stance is a calculated negotiating tactic ahead of upcoming talks for the second phase of truce.

"I don't think the ceasefire will collapse, it's not in Netanyahu's interest to have it collapse particularly as hostages are still being held in Gaza," said Sanam Vakil, director of UK-based think tank Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program.

"What we are witnessing now is political hardball, with them (Israel) trying to up the ante, or increase pressure on Hamas" ahead of the next phase, she said.

'Americans are key'

Phase two was "always going to be the hardest phase of the negotiations, made worse by the US position and posturing and by the fact there is no coherent Arab plan," she said.

Trump has stirred controversy by openly suggesting that the United States should take control of Gaza and expel its 2.4 million inhabitants to Egypt and Jordan.

But in recent days he has toned down his view and on Wednesday his special envoy Steve Witkoff is due to arrive in Israel to push forward the phase two talks.

"I think the key to this is the Americans, they will determine what takes place next," said Alan Mendoza, executive director of the UK-based Henry Jackson Society.

"Trump was the main factor in getting Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire," he said, noting that the deal was on the table previously but "Trump pushed it and both the Israelis and Hamas have agreed to its terms."

Despite Israel demanding Gaza be completely demilitarized and Hamas removed, while the militant group insists on remaining in the territory after the war, Mendoza said that if Trump throws his weight behind phase two "then it will happen."

"It's a tough negotiation round and the odds are we will not be able to agree on a stage two plan but if the Arab states buck up… and take more of an interest given Trump's Gaza Riveria plans –- there's a possibility we could do it."