Ruto's diplomatic mishaps hurt Kenya's trade, bilateral relations

Workers of Kiiru tea Plantation in Limuru pluck tea leaves in the farm. [File, Standard] The impact of President William Ruto's decision to host Sudan's paramilitary group, which has been gravely criticized, is beginning to be felt. Sudan has now banned Kenya's exports, with local industries holding products worth billions of shillings destined following the neighbouring country's announcement Thursday protesting Kenya's dalliance with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The country bought Sh2.28 billion worth of tea from Kenya last year. It is ranked as the 12 largest buyer of Kenyan tea globally and the second largest in Africa after Egypt. Other products also affected by the ban include coffee and tobacco products. Kenya, in February this year, allowed RSF and its allies in Nairobi and the parties signed an agreement for the formation of Founding Alliance for Sudan, which reportedly plans to establish a parallel government to the current regime led by the army. Shortly after, Sudan's Foreign Affairs ministry recalled the ambassador to Kenya and this has now been followed up by a ban on Kenyan imports. Experts had earlier warned that allowing the formation of a parallel government within Kenya's borders could have severe consequences, and possible retaliation from Sudan's army-led authority, that may impair bilateral relations. The decision to host the paramilitary group has received a lot of criticism, both locally and internationally. Experts say that this decision is damaging President Ruto's credentials on international relations by appearing to promote rebellion dissidence in sister republics. "Hosting a rival government is, in essence, a declaration of indirect war, it sets a dangerous precedent and could invite retaliatory actions," international relations experts warned, saying Kenya must rethink its approach before it backfires. The experts further warn that Kenya's diplomatic standing is at risk due to its perceived support for RSF. "The question is, why is President Ruto doing this? What personal gains or considerations are involved?" posed Macharia Munene, a professor of international relations at the United States International University. Critics argue that Kenya's actions contradict the longstanding principle of the AU, which forbids interference in the internal affairs of member states. "Interfering in another country's governance is akin to sponsoring an alternative administration, which is both inappropriate and destabilising," Munene said. "To allow formation of a parallel government in your country is an indirect declaration of war. It may give them reasons to sponsor chaos in your place, if they decide to retaliate and return the favor.". "I do not think it is a wise idea, President Ruto needs better counseling and advise, it will boomerang on him." Munene noted that history dictates that a country permitting formation of a parallel government, is hostile to the one being targeted. "The president is not only damaging his name, but the name of Kenya as a country," he said, adding that Kenya currently does not look good, as its stand shows that it does not recognise the sitting government. The effect of the ban can already be felt. Tea exporters decry that tea valued at about Sh1.3 billion is stuck at the Mombasa tea auction. According to the East African Tea Trade Association (Eatta), the ban comes at a critical period of Ramadan, when tea consumption is at its peak in Sudan. Asking the government to intervene and allow buyers a window of at least one month to clear the tea dispatched to Sudan, tea traders say they have 207 containers waiting for shipment. Eatta managing director George Omuga said several containers of tea that were dispatched for Sudan are still at the high seas and, "huge stocks bought for Sudan market are still at the Mombasa warehouses and cannot be shipped out due to the ban." Sudan is a large importer of Kenyan tea and was last year the 12 largest importer, buying Sh2.28 billion worth of Kenyan tea, according to Tea Board of Kenya (TBK). This was, however, a 21 per cent drop from Sh2.92 billion tea that the country bought from Kenya in 2023, which TBK explained was on account of the conflict in the country, which is the genesis of Kenya hosting RSF and in turn led to the stalemate between Kenya and Sudan. The quantity of tea that Kenya exported dropped 10.7 million kilogrammes in 2024 from 12.13 million kilos in 2023, a 12 per cent drop. "Due to market access challenges occasioned by internal conflict in the country, there was a dip in tea exports to Sudan of 12 per cent," said TBK in a recent report on the industry's performance in 2024. While it was a large uptaker of Kenyan tea exported last year, Sudan stood out in terms of buying the country's value added tea, coming second to the UK. Value added teas, which has undergone some additional processing in the country, means more money for the local tea sector. "Out of the total exports of value-added tea, the United Kingdom accounted for the highest volume at 35.6 per cent and was followed by Sudan at 14.4 per cent, Oman (12.7 per cent); Somalia (11.6 per cent); Yemen (6.4 per cent), and Burkina Faso (3 per cent)," said TBK. "During the year 2024, value added tea exports amounted to 28.9 million kilogrammes, which represented five per cent of the total exported volume. This was an increase of 10 per cent from 26.14 million kilos recorded in 2023." Kenya is likely to emerge as the loser should the stalemate persist, considering that trade with Sudan is heavily skewed in its favour. Aside from tea, Kenya also exports coffee, tobacco, pharmaceuticals, electrical equipment and other products to Sudan. Kenyan exports to Sudan stood at Sh6.75 billion in 2023, according to the latest data set from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), which was however a decline from Sh7.79 billion worth of exports to the country in 2022 and Sh8.27 billion in 2020. On the other hand, imports from Sudan stood at Sh756 million in 2024, a drop of 43.5 per cent form Sh1.34 billion that the country exported to Kenya in 2023.

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