Ruto turns tables, plays hidden cards to outplay critics

The standing ovation President William Ruto received from MPs in Parliament last Thursday, when he cancelled the controversial Adani deals, appeared to be another masterstroke he has pulled while reeling under enormous pressure.

It was a tough week for the President, especially after Catholic bishops, later supported by other church leaders, criticised him and his government over poor governance and unfulfilled promises.

The unexpected cancellation of the contracts came as a big surprise to many Kenyans, just as was the case when he rejected the Finance Bill, 2024, that had been passed by Parliament. Ruto made the surprise decision to reject it entirely in June, following nationwide Gen Z protests.

Ruto has since been basking in glory because of the jubilation that followed the much-awaited decision.

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Shortly after the Ketraco power deal had been signed with Adani, reports emerged that the company had threatened to cut off its power supply to Bangladesh due to delayed payment of their power bills.

Adani supplies Bangladesh power from its 1,600-megawatt coal-fired power plant in Eastern India. Fears were raised about a similar fate befalling Kenya after Adani takes over the power supply lines

Political analysts are now asking whether, given the goodwill he has received from the popular decision to cancel the deals, he will approach matters differently going forward.

Political commentator Martin Andati believes the President had no choice but to cancel the deals after the onslaught from the Church and the public, who repeatedly raised concerns about the shady contracts. However, he thinks the same mistakes will be repeated when new contracts are signed.

“Nobody knew what was signed because it has never been made public. You saw the President blaming the Office of the Public Prosecutor and the Judiciary, because he wanted to distance himself and shift the blame to others, and he succeeded,” says Andati.

It is, however, not clear why the President believes these two departments have let the country down in the fight against corruption.

Indian tycoons

The Standard recently serialised mega graft cases where Indian tycoons accused of grand corruption in the biggest graft cases in the country’s history have been shockingly set free.

Tycoon Yagnesh Devani was set free a few weeks after being repatriated from Britain, where he fled to evade justice. The fugitive was alleged to have been the mastermind behind the Sh7.6 billion Triton oil scandal in 2008.

The prosecutor declined to proceed with the case, telling the court that a former minister and other key witnesses had declined to testify. His release came as a shock because previous administrations had invested significant resources both locally and internationally to bring him to justice.

The elusive fugitive allegedly stole 318,356 tonnes of jet fuel and 2,000 tonnes of automotive gas oil in 2008.

Earlier, Deepak Kamani and his brother Rashmikant Kamani had also walked free after escaping charges over the Sh7.05 billion Anglo Leasing scandal.

The fraud case was also dropped due to lack of evidence, and witnesses allegedly became reluctant. Culprits involved in other mega corruption schemes, such as the Goldenberg scandal, have never been successfully prosecuted.

Governance and political analyst Gitile Naituli argues that by not taking action against those who signed the Adani deals, the President has only increased the pressure and scrutiny on his government.

He believes the President should have not only suspended the Adani contracts but also sacked those involved to create more confidence in his government, as they misled him and will likely continue the same practices if not removed.

“It has shown that Kenyans know better than him and all his advisors. The only way to deal with the situation now is to fire all the advisors who handled the Adani transactions and hire new people who can help him,” says Prof Naituli.

The President should also have acknowledged and vindicated the many Kenyans who repeatedly told him that the deals were suspicious, instead of listening to politicians cheering him in Parliament, yet they had not taken action against the technocrats who misled him into defending the illegal projects, he added.

Naituli is also concerned about the background checks the President gets before making such commitments, as the cancellation of projects not only wastes time and money spent on negotiations but could also lead to serious legal disputes arising from termination clauses.

Such decisions make the President appear not only weak but also as a person who does not plan properly in his management of public resources, which creates a trust deficit among citizens regarding the delivery of the many promises he makes.

“Presidents are supposed to have a broad comprehension with sharp focus on the minute details of projects. The fact that one can enter into deals that he later cancels calls into question their leadership capacity. It shows that they are not taking leadership of the country seriously by making the country incur unnecessary costs, along with those around him,” says Naituli.

Andati says that halting the Adani deals has helped President Ruto lessen the pressure on his government and himself, although this may turn out to be a temporary relief.

“He is using President Daniel Arap Moi’s style of letting the issue simmer until it almost reaches boiling point, before quickly pulling back to look like the saviour. That also happened with the Finance Bill, 2024, when he dropped it and made the MPs look bad,” says Andati.

Despite the mounting push for more accountability, he does not foresee any serious changes in the President’s management style, as most changes are being done half-heartedly, driven by mounting pressure that forces him to retreat on some decisions.

The sacking of the entire Cabinet in June after the Gen Z protests still ranks among his most popular and daring decisions, but analysts again think it was a wasted opportunity because the replacements still appear to be groping in the dark.

They expected the replacements to make independent decisions and properly advise the President, but Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi’s defence of the Adani Ketraco deal, a few hours before its cancellation by the President, again portrayed a dysfunctional Cabinet.

Making decisions

“These people are beholden to the President, and most of them fear making decisions because they don’t know what his thinking is. Wandayi looked bad because what he was defending in the morning changed in the afternoon, which means he sits in Cabinet but is also in the dark,” says Andati.

Analysts also questioned the level of due diligence President Ruto demands from his technocrats before signing government contracts. The haste in sealing the Adani deals could have left the President with a lot of egg on his face.

He should have noticed the urgency with which the deals were concluded, especially before they were stopped by the courts, long before another court in New York issued an arrest warrant against Gautam Adani on Thursday night.

Analysts have cautioned that, despite the contracts being stopped, the cross-border investigations ongoing in New York could uncover how the Adani contracts in Kenya were signed, potentially leading to significant embarrassment if shady deals are exposed.

The Americans are investigating the case using the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which exposes cross-border corruption deals, and that is why Adani’s JKIA and Ketraco contracts may become subjects of interest.