In-tray is full for next AU chair as Raila stands best chance

Finally, the African Union Commission chairperson’s elections are here. Without any doubt, these have been the most followed AU elections with Raila Odinga’s candidature raising the stakes in ways not seen in previous polls.

Raila is by far the strongest candidate Kenya has fronted for an international role and the most fitting candidate for this position.

Interestingly, local political dynamics have resulted in a strange phenomenon where the greatest opposition to Raila’s candidature emanates from Kenya, especially among the turbulent youth, popularly christened the Gen Z who allege that he betrayed their revolution by working with President Ruto after the June protests.

The reality is a lot more complicated and wiser heads are more understanding and accommodating of Raila’s moves in this regard. Putting local politics aside, it is a no-brainer that of the three candidates, Madagascar’s Richard Randriamto, Djibouti’s Mahmoud Youssouf and Kenya’s Raila Odinga the latter’s local, regional and global CV makes him stand out from the rest.

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The two, whose greatest claims to fame are as foreign ministers of their countries, are at best senior civil servants with limited national, regional and global roles or recognition. Raila on the other hand has served for decades in senior positions in Kenya’s politics and government rising to the position of formal Prime Minister but de-facto co-President in the years he served in Kibaki’s government. He served as informal co-President in the Uhuru “handshake years”.

Raila’s engagement with constitutional and political reforms in Kenya started in the 80s for which he had a heavy personal price. Since then, he has been identified with all significant reforms in Kenya, starting with the “second liberation” reforms in the 90s to the push for enhanced democratic space and constitutional reforms which culminated in the promulgation of Kenya’s progressive Constitution when he was Prime Minister.

Raila has stood for President in Kenya five times and come close to clinching the seat. Interestingly, even when he has failed to win, Raila has remained a stabilising factor in Kenya’s politics, called upon by Presidents Moi, Kibaki, Uhuru and Ruto to steady the restive country after the elections. It is impossible to talk of Kenya’s political stability without accrediting Raila.

Beyond Kenya, Raila’s pan-Africanist credentials are known. He has lobbied for the continent’s political and economic transformation and regional unity for years. He has served officially and non-officially in many continental roles, his last official position being the AU High Representative for infrastructure, granting him extensive global and continental networks.

His continentwide recognition and charisma were notable when he addressed mourners in Malawi during the state funeral of the country’s president Saulos Chilima in 2024. With his unmatched oratorical skills and humour, he was wildly cheered by the crowds who recognised him as an established fighter for democratic reforms. If he wins the seat, he will be the Chief Executive and Chief Accounting Officer of the African Union. In this position, he can use his established networks, energy, passion and industry to play an immensely impactful role.

The AU is not at its best despite the dreams set out in its Agenda 2063. Numerous issues are plaguing its growth and impact. The principal one is financial woes emanating from member defaults, forcing it to rely on foreign donors. It needs to deal with turbulence in various spots including the expanding wars in Congo and Sudan, the rise of jihadism in Sahel, increased coups particularly in West Africa and reduced democratic space in countries including Eritrea, Uganda and Rwanda.

Africa’s populations especially the youth are also restive, with their economic fortunes looking dismal. Should he win, Raila will need to leverage AU’s enhanced status as a member of the G20 to push for the continent’s interests including a fairer multinational trade and financial system. While Raila looks undefeatable, the nature of geopolitics is that anything can change.

While his opponents here in Kenya would throw wild celebrations, that would be a sad day for the continent and unfortunate for Kenya which would lose its most viable opportunity to play a continental and global role in such a significant position. 

-The writer is an advocate of the High Court