Ruto, Raila coalition deal 'as good as done'

A coalition deal between President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is “as good as done”, The Standard can reveal.

Impeccable sources disclose that the political arrangement between the two, discussed at State House, Mombasa on Monday, is irreversible and “only awaiting public signing.”

One highly placed source disclosed that the deal could be formalised as early as next week. Another, who attended a consultative meeting convened by Raila in Kisumu on Tuesday, revealed that the former prime minister had told them he would “announce his direction next week.”

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Although no details were provided regarding any power-sharing agreement, another source confirmed that Raila was pushing for some stake in government. However, none of the three sources wished to be named due to the sensitive nature of the matter.

Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Shariff Nassir disclosed that Ruto and Raila had not yet signed a coalition deal. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party’s top organ, the Central Management Committee, met in Kisumu Thursday evening, where it was expected they would discuss Raila’s and ODM’s next steps.

“It will be the first meeting since our party leader’s return home, and we will have a lot to address, especially about the party’s future moving forward. After today’s (yesterday) consultations, we will have to make a decision, which will be announced to us,” said Nassir, one of ODM’s deputy party leaders.

Nassir also mentioned that the arrangement could take various forms and “may not necessarily be a partnership.” “It could be a cooperation between two parties and not individuals,” he added.

On Monday, Raila stated that he needed time to consult about his next political move, but hinted at a potential arrangement with Ruto when he said; “We are available for Kenya. I am back home here and I am going to meet with my friends and supporters and consult widely… and in due course, we are going to announce our way forward,” said Raila. “Watch this space. I will be talking again.”

Since then, Raila has held several “consultative” engagements, which The Standard has established were aimed at justifying a deal with Ruto, who the former prime minister thanked for supporting his African Union Commission (AUC) bid. On Tuesday, Raila met with Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o, Siaya Governor James Orengo, and a day later, Migori’s Ochillo Ayacko. Nyong’o, ODM’s acting party leader, and Orengo have been critical of a potential coalition between ODM and UDA.

The former prime minister’s comments imply that he is eager to formalise his partnership with Ruto, who throughout his address referred to Raila as “prime minister.” Ruto described the meeting as aimed at “closing ranks as a country and focusing on what we can do for Kenya – the things that require our collective effort.”

“As an administration that is now broad-based, there is every reason for us to accelerate the momentum for the delivery of things that will transform our nation. I must be grateful that the necessary political capital required to move transformative programmes in our country now exists, courtesy of the broad-based government,” said the Commander-in-Chief.

When Raila lost the AUC chairperson race a fortnight ago to Djiboutian Mahmoud Youssouf, Ruto expressed hope that Raila’s loss would mark the beginning of a new “moment”, widely interpreted as the start of a new coalition between the two, who have maintained cordial relations since last July.

Recently, allies of the Head of State have suggested accommodating Raila by creating the position of prime minister. Belgut Member of Parliament Nelson Koech last week said that the governance structure should be adjusted to include Raila in “whichever position.”

“Raila Odinga is coming back home. What will Raila Odinga be doing with his energy, wisdom, and experience? I think we in Kenya Kwanza should accommodate that experience, advice, and counsel… we have to find a structure that will accommodate Raila Odinga,” Koech said on Citizen TV.

The deal between Ruto and Raila is expected to include more cabinet slots for Raila’s allies, who will join the five of his confidants – Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi (National Treasury), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives), Hassan Joho (Mining), and Beatrice Askul (East African Community) – in Ruto’s Executive.

Raila’s allies are also expected to benefit from a forthcoming purge of principal secretaries. Long-term goals for the new partnership could involve ODM supporting Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027.

ODM politicians who support Ruto’s “broad-based” relationship with Raila are already pressuring the president to select a running mate from their party. But there is growing discontent among ODM members who previously opposed the coalition with Ruto’s UDA. One unnamed MP expressed concerns that Raila would “go into the coalition alone.”

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has previously criticised such plans, stating that it would be “very imprudent for ODM not to field a presidential candidate in 2027.” “ODM just needs to retain all its constituencies because Ruto has lost almost half of his constituencies in Mt Kenya,” Sifuna said, referring to Ruto’s declining popularity. Last week, the ODM secretary-general also asserted that Ruto would lose the 2027 election even with ODM’s support.