Why Kenya must prioritise anticipatory measures as defense against climate disasters

I am convinced that anticipatory approaches to disaster preparedness and risk communication offers a better way to break this cycle. Let me explain why- anticipatory measures, are pre-emptive -they are about, prioritizing prediction and preparedness. At the core of such approaches lies the idea of acting before disaster strikes. This means investing in robust early warning systems that leverage advanced weather forecasting, risk modelling, and community centred risk communication approaches. Such approaches give the people ample time to evacuate or take protective measures. This way we can save countless lives and reduce economic losses.

However, warnings alone are not enough. Communities must have the resources and capabilities to act. A comprehensive strategy would include - developing and regularly rehearsing emergency response plans, ensuring that evacuation routes are well-maintained, and accessible. In addition, social and behaviour change programs to help people, modify their beliefs, attitudes and adopt new ways of perceiving risks, and change behaviours, should be part of the package. Pre-emptive decisions and actions - like moving people out of harms way well in advance – before disaster strikes need to be part of the strategy. As you may have already realized, this calls for a multi-stakeholder approach to disaster preparedness and management.

As mentioned earlier, when disaster strikes, landscapes are often transformed into scenes of devastation and the impacts can be overwhelming. Communities are unprecedentedly cast into chaos. Families are destroyed and their sense of security shattered. But amidst the wreckage, the human spirit endures. It is at such time that these people need urgent help to rebound, not only by providing immediate relief (which is important), but also by supporting them to get back to their feet  again and foster resilience against future shocks. Resilience goes beyond immediate survival; it's about enabling communities to bounce back faster and better from disasters. In flood-prone areas, this means reinforcing critical infrastructure like dams and bridges to withstand extreme rainfall, and exploring other nature-based solutions.  

The mountainous regions of Kenya, such as Murang'a and Nyeri, face landslides hazards and there is need for the county governments to have elaborate anticipatory action programs in place to pre-empt disasters in these regions. Here, resilience building must focus on geological risk mapping, identifying vulnerable slopes, and potentially relocating communities living in the highest-risk zones. Stabilizing slopes with vegetation, implementing improved drainage systems, and developing landslide-specific early warning systems to further reduce risk.

My point is that – investing in anticipatory action and resilience programs is long overdue.  Well, such venture requires immense investment, political will, and sustained collaboration between government, communities, NGOs, and the private sector.  Our major problem in Kenya is indifference to risks and disaster preparedness. It is unfortunate culture that relegates disaster preparedness to the back burner. 

Devastating flood disasters are not new in the country. On May 9th 2018, Solai dam tragedy in Subukia claimed 48 lives and left hundreds of families displaced when the raging waters swept their houses and other property downstream. Its our hope as Kenyan, that the Mai Mahiu flood disaster will serve as a wake-up call, and a catalyst for a fundamental shift in our approach to climate-related hazards. By now Kenyans should have realized that climate change is an existential threat to Kenya's development trajectory.  The time for pre-emptive action is now; the lives we save may depend on it.

- Dr Kimotho is an Assistant Professor of Public Health Communication at USIU-A and a consultant in Risk and Emergency Communication