Donald Trump's 'revenge' mandate will have little time for Kenya, Africa

Donald Trump cut an isolated figure at his going-away party at Andrews Air Force Base. 

Having just lost the election and being accused of encouraging rioters who stormed the US Capitol, he was almost by himself and probably beside himself with anger. Outside of his family, a few people showed up for his send-off or bothered to associate with him, then a pariah.

Trump was so bitter that he even skipped his successor’s inauguration, becoming the first president to do so in modern US history.

“Just a goodbye. We love you. We’ll be back in some form,” Trump told the small crowd, a size he psychologically hates to have when talking in public.

Trump then boarded Air Force One and flew to Florida.

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The phrase “some form,” however, proved prophetic. After a few years in the wilderness, Trump, on Wednesday, declared victory even before the election results were officially announced, a stunning comeback for a man who, on this coming November 26, was expected to face sentencing in a New York court for fraud.

Now a bitter-man-turned-president-elect, Trump is raring to get revenge and, as he promised, could try to go after his enemies, including former presidents, former officials and members of the media.

The lead liberal voice in the US, the New York Times, has already called his win a "perilous choice" by Americans and implored the public to insist that the fundamental pillars of the nation’s democracy "be preserved against an assault that he (Trump) has already begun and has said he would continue."

“Mr Trump’s election poses a grave threat to that republic, but he will not determine the long-term fate of American democracy,” it said in a scathing editorial that also warned of Trump's fetish for more power.

All Americans should now be wary of an incoming Trump administration that is likely to put a top priority on amassing unchecked power and punishing its perceived enemies, both of which Mr Trump has repeatedly vowed to do,” the paper said, arguing that Trump had shown Americans that he "has no respect for the law, let alone the values, norms and traditions of democracy."

 Whether Trump will follow through on his vows to punish his enemies is far from clear, but his second term will certainly be consumed by a crusade to remake America, leaving with little time for foreign affairs and almost zero interest in continuing the policies of a man he once called for his arrest on "treason.”

 The historic change in the US plunges President William Ruto’s recent trade deals with President Joe Biden which ranged from security to trade to health to education to green energy to good governance, among others, into a period of uncertainty. It will likely suffer a setback in Trump’s inward-looking policies. 

Trump's past ties with Kenya

During his first term, the relationship between Kenya and the US was so strong that the two countries’ trade and security cooperation flourished.  Trump lauded Kenya’s leading role in the fight against terrorism in East Africa and its diplomatic efforts to bring peace to South Sudan and to the region.

Despite his racist rhetoric against Africa, Trump elevated the Nairobi-Washington ties to a Strategic Partnership in 2018, treating the East African powerhouse “as a cornerstone of peace, stability and good governance in Africa and the Indian Ocean region.”

 To the delight of Kenyan policymakers, the positive trajectory has continued under the outgoing, Biden, who, on his part, last June promoted Kenya to a non-NATO ally.

Now, after Trump’s reelection, the two countries’ ties will be tested and watched closely. 

 While no breakup is expected because of Kenya’s economic, diplomatic and military stature in the region, a Trump 2.0 administration could, unlike Biden's, be less enthusiastic about further boosting its relations with Kenya, as the new president would most likely be consumed by the urgent and expansive internal and international agendas, like the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon, as well as the US’s competition with China, whose economy is threatening to knock Washington off its superpower pedestal.

 Trump is coming to office to fulfil the dramatic pledges he made to American voters who handed him an overwhelming mandate to change the country after years of frustrations with the Democrats’ rule that alienated a large chunk of the population with its runaway liberalism that allows children to change their sex, or what in the US called is called "gender-affirming care," which, according to Trump, gives kids puberty blockers, mutates their physical appearance and ultimately performs surgery on minor children. 

Trump vowed to sign on Day One orders instructing every federal agency to "cease all programs that promote the concept of sex and gender transition at any age."

"It’s got to be turned around fast, and we’re going to turn it around. We’re going to do it in every way with so many ways, but we’re going to do it in every way," Trump said of his future plans in his victory speech. "This will forever be remembered as the day the American people regained control of their country.”

Trump 2.0 administration

Trump’s victory was largely a result of the unhappiness felt by three-fourths of US voters, who said their country was going in the wrong direction, according to a national exit poll of voters conducted by Edison Research, with 61 per cent of them voting for Trump. 

Trump’s return is an epoch-making change, whose impact on the US and the world is still unclear. It could also herald an era of chaos in the world, as the most powerful country in the world is being led by an unpredictable man.

But one thing is certain: The world will never be the same with Trump at the helm, and Africa could be a loser.

The continent, which he reportedly referred to as the “shithole,” is unlikely to feature prominently in Trump’s administration, whose approach would most likely prefer deal-making rather than the subtle exploitation buttressed by the Democrats.

 In his first term, Trump has paid little attention to the continent. He had even withdrawn US troops from Somalia, which he, at one time, referred to as “No government, no safety, no police, no nothing, just anarchy.”

 Prof Gitile Naituli, of Multimedia University of Kenya, told The Standard on Sunday that Kenya would have some difficulty in earning the trust of the Trump administration, having “already gone too far in pushing for the globalists' agenda,” which the Trump administration doesn’t like.

 Naituli said Trump may not discard all the deals Nairobi cut with the Biden administration, but he could “cancel those that do not benefit America, like the Haiti mission."  

 "Your policemen will come home, and Kenya will be forced to pay for their return,” Naituli said. "Judging by Donald Trump's personality and foreign policy, it’s unlikely Ruto will continue to enjoy America's camaraderie or that the Trump administration will continue to validate and cheer him on." 

 President William Ruto on Friday night held a telephone conversation with Trump and the two leaders, according to the Kenyan head of state, "discussed areas of mutual interest that are of benefit to the citizens of our two countries, including trade and investment, security and good governance.

 “I briefed President Trump on the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support Mission in Haiti and possible areas of cooperation with the US government on this important conflict resolution initiative.,” Ruto said in a message posted to his X account.

 Trump will, of course, need Ruto’s help in pacifying South Sudan, Sudan, Somalia and in the fight against terrorism in East Africa, yet it’s unlikely that the relationship between Nairobi and Washington will be as strong as it was under Biden who earlier this year feted Ruto at the White House and considered Kenya as an anchor state not only in East Africa but in the continent.

Perhaps aware of Kenya’s fear about a possible change to the US’s ties with Kenya, Blinken called Ruto on Thursday to reaffirm “the close and enduring connection between the peoples of our two nations and to thank Ruto for “Kenya’s continued leadership of the Multinational Security Support mission to Haiti as it works with its Haitian counterparts to restore peace and security to the Haitian people.” 

The Biden administration’s decision to cheer Ruto’s rule was partly dictated by a realization that Africa, especially the resources-rich Sub-Saharan Africa, was crucial for the US’s interests.

 In 2021, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “Africa will shape the future.”

 A year later, President Biden announced a US Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa, declaring that it was "impossible to meet this era’s defining challenges without African contributions and leadership.

Even President Trump once told African leaders in Italy during the G7 conference that “Africa is a place of opportunity.”

The essence of the US strategy was to counter China's and Russia’s influence in Africa, a concern US's different administrations appear to partly share.

 Kenya and the US have a decades-old relationship that experienced some turbulence before and after the multiparty system.

On July 14, 2022, the two countries eventually decided to form a “Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership agreement, “or STIP, the only such agreement in Africa.

The goal of the STIP, whose first iteration was started by President Uhuru Kenyatta and Trump in 2018 to be a stand-alone free trade agreement, aimed, according to officials, at increasing investment, promoting sustainable and inclusive economic growth, benefiting workers, consumers and businesses and supporting African regional economic integration.

Negotiations on its fine details are still being hammered out, with its eighth round held in Washington on September 16-27. The US Ambassador to Kenya Meg Whitman has recently said she expected the talks to be finalized by the end of this year. The Kenyan side, however, is yet to reveal more public information about the discussions between the two parties. 

According to a US statement, the latest talks have covered seven topics: Agriculture, customs, trade facilitation and enforcement, environment, good regulatory practices, inclusivity, legal and administrative matters, and workers’ rights and protections.

With fewer large-scale industries that can take advantage of the US's enormous market, Kenya's trade with the US is tilted in favour of the superpower, a fact that has forced the Ruto administration to create industrial parks to entice foreign companies to maximize its trade and investment deals with the US and the European Union.

Like dozens of African countries, Kenya is already a beneficiary of the 24-year-old African Growth and Opportunities Act, or AGOA, which in 2002 was enacted and has given Kenyan businesspeople duty-free, quota-free access to the US markets.

Kenya and other African beneficiaries are worried that President Trump could abolish trade concessions, something that prompted the African Export-Import Bank to allocate $300,000 to hire lobbies to try to persuade the Trump administration to renew AGOA before it expires next year.

The African countries' concern is being stoked by the release of a much-vilified, 900-page controversial policy paper by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, whose authors recommended a new approach to Africa.

“At a bare minimum,” the blueprint said Trump’s administration should shift strategic focus from aid to growth, counter Chinese activity on the continent and counter-terrorism in Africa.

The paper argued that Chinese companies dominate the African supply chain for certain minerals critical to emerging technologies.

“African nations comprise major country-bloc elements that shield the PRC (the People's Republic of China) and Russia from international isolation for their human rights abuses—and African nations staunchly support PRC foreign policy goals on issues such as Hong Kong occupation, South China Seas dispute arbitration, and Taiwan,” the paper said

To correct this “strategic failing,” the policy paper said, the Trump administration should prioritize Africa and undertake fundamental changes in how the United States works with African nations.

In a recent essay, Ambassador Johnnie Carson, former assistant secretary of state for the Bureau of African Affairs recommended opening U.S. Consulates in Mombasa and the DRC's Lubumbashi, one of the world's most mineral-rich cities at the end of the Lobito Corridor, where, he said, the US is working with Zambia, the DRC and Angola to develop a rail line and a value chain for batteries and green energy minerals. 

Carson, who served as a US Ambassador to Kenya, Uganda and Zimbabwe, is best known for his phrase “choices have consequences" before Kenya's 2013 elections, which was a call not to elect former President Uhuru Kenyatta and his then-running mate Ruto over their alleged role in the country’s 2007-8 post-election violence.

In his recommendation for the upcoming Secretary of State, Kiron Skinner, who was Trump's State Department director of Policy Planning, urged Washington to “focus on those countries with which the U.S. can expect a mutually beneficial relationship” instead of “thinning limited federal resources by spreading funds across all countries (including some that are unsupportive or even hostile to the United States,)”

Skinner called on the US to have “a baseline level of contact even with those countries with which it has less-than-fruitful relationships in order to encourage positive developments and to be in a position to seize unexpected diplomatic opportunities as they arise.”

In what could be music to Kenyan policymakers' ears, Skinner also recommended that the US “Focus on core diplomatic activities, and stop promoting policies birthed in the American culture wars.”

“African nations are particularly (and reasonably) non-receptive to the U.S. social policies such as abortion and pro-LGBT initiatives being imposed on them,” Skinner wrote. “The United States should focus on core security, economic, and human rights engagement with African partners and reject the promotion of divisive policies that hurt the deepening of shared goals between the U.S. and its African partners.”

Although Trump’s utterances largely consorts with what was in the Heritage Foundation's paper, he denied having anything to do with the conservative plan to rid the US federal government of leftist ideologies and individuals and focus on his “America First” policy.

As a leader who likes to do things on his way and terms, Trump will most certainly roll back women’s reproductive health and climate-related programs in Africa that are not aligned with his administration's policy that is against abortion, and LGBT and supports drilling to reduce fuel prices.

“Trump sees the world in terms of what is best for America. Kenya ranks very low in this respect,” Professor Naituli, of Multimedia University of Kenya, said. “… He thinks America doesn't need anyone else. Kenya's relationship will, therefore, be affected.

Broadly, Naituli said, the Republican administrations are better for Africa than Democratic administrations.

“Republicans stress self-reliance, and usually, they don't support corruption and corrupt leaders,” he said. “Trump is a highly transactional leader and, therefore, will engage only where Americans have a direct benefit."

Curiously, the Heritage Foundation is the same venue where the-then Trump’s first term National Security Advisor Ambassador John Bolton unveiled his New Africa Strategy dubbed "Prosper Africa” on Dec. 13, 2018.

That strategy recommended directing the US funding “toward key countries and particular strategic objectives.” “All U.S. aid on the continent will advance U.S. interests, and help African nations move toward self-reliance,” it said.

“The United States will no longer provide indiscriminate assistance across the entire continent, without focus or prioritization. And, we will no longer support unproductive, unsuccessful, and unaccountable U.N. peacekeeping missions,” Bolton said.

Like the Heritage Foundation’s plan, Trump’s 2018 Africa policy had a focus on China’s and Russia’s involvement in the continent. “In short,” Bolton said, “the predatory practices pursued by China and Russia stunt economic growth in Africa; threaten the financial independence of African nations; inhibit opportunities for U.S. investment; interfere with U.S. military operations; and pose a significant threat to U.S. national security interests.”

Trump's past Africa initiative

In his first term, Trump’s administration sent a fact-finding mission led by then-US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, who oversaw the President’s Advisory Council on Doing Business in Africa, or PAC-DBIA, to Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana and Ivory Coast to identify the most pressing challenges facing American companies operating in Africa. Ross was Trump’s principal voice of business matters. During the trip, $1 billion of commercial deals and government engagements were signed.

The delegation, which included dozens of business executives, held talks with former President Kenyatta and various Cabinet secretaries and business leaders in the country.

In Kenya, the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding on how to increase the U.S. private sector participation and investment in all of the Big Four priority areas of President Uhuru.

The Ross-led PAC-DBIA team ranked Kenya the highest potential destination for investment.

 In 2018, during his visit to Washington, President Uhuru signed $850 million of deals, including a $500 million project to develop an integrated nationwide information and telecommunications network for the government.