Raila has one last 'ritual' before AU contest

Today marks the start of February – a decisive month for this year’s Africa Union Commission elections.

The vote, coming up in a matter of days in Ethiopia, will determine if Raila Odinga transitions from local politics or remains active. He’s likely to win the AU chairmanship due to the political capital he enjoys.

With Baba, the enigma, on the throes of history, ODM’s future is already shaky. We’ve seen how the party has reeled in utter confusion since joining President Ruto’s camp out of the blues last year.

Lately, the party is ‘working with’ President Ruto and attacking him in order to maintain a semblance of opposition relevance. Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna and Siaya Governor James Orengo have – on the face of it – become agents of factionalism and ‘rebellion’ in ODM.   

In his finger-wagging style, learned friend Orengo has warned that those ‘cheerleading’ the Kenya Kwanza administration within Mr Odinga’s camp must stop being part of the president’s ‘praise and worship’ team. As he puts it, ‘when there’s sycophancy, people lose sight of their mind.’

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Mr Odinga has occasionally thrown punches from the shadows. At the funeral of rights activist Roselyn Odede in Rarieda two weeks ago, he bitterly criticised the State over the recent abductions wave.

The former premier also demanded justice for victims of alleged police brutality.

As if not enough, acting Party Leader Anyang’ Nyong’o has warned that they will not promote interests of UDA. But amid the flurry, ODM Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi, Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya and Opiyo Wandayi, together with Minority Leader Junet Mohamed defend President Ruto and his scorecard at every opportunity. They strut around like the new sheriffs in town.

In attacking Ruto critics, Mr Joho says ‘wakileta noma tunaleta noma (if they cause chaos, we’ll do the same).” Mr Mbadi and Mr Wandayi have gone ahead to claim that their new jobs are a ‘reward’ to the Luo nation. Specifically, Mr Sifuna deserves sympathy. The new state of affairs has forced him into self-pity. Now, the Nairobi senator plays to the gallery by declaring ‘war’ on Kenya Kwanza.

But as ODM sends mixed signals, there’s real fear of an ideological meltdown. Before Mr Odinga’s departure, his allies should see the light. With its fate tied to UDA, any criticism of Ruto by ODM is empty noise. We can see right through it.

One foot in and the other out is expensive. It’s time for Mr Odinga to give ODM for ‘adoption’ by Ruto’s UDA.

A formal Ruto-Odinga alliance would be unbeatable like Gor Mahia in Luo mythology. Moreover, it would improve ODM fortunes while assuring Ruto of a win against Gen-Z factor and a surging Rigathi Gachagua, who’s plotting a ‘mega’ pact with Ms Martha Karua, Kalonzo Musyoka and other Azimio remnants. But mark my words, Ruto is unruffled since 2027 will be a single horse race.

Last month’s merger between UDA and Musalia Mudavadi’s ANC to form the United Democratic Alliance Party was good. Fringe parties have no place in the new dispensation. We’ve more than 80 registered political outfits but most are cash-cows for sleazebags.   

But as parties purse mergers, they must learn from history. Jubilee Party of Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto attempted to consolidate friendly outfits in 2017 to ‘unite’ the country but failed. Kanu’s merger with NDP in 2002 was fraught with factional wars.

Mr Odinga may not seek the presidency again. But Baba has one final ritual before he exits – to bite the bullet and grant ODM the freehand to merge with UDA, and he must ensure the marriage succeeds. How ODM navigates 2027 will shape his legacy. It must not be a textbook case of tactlessness every election.

Granted, few but robust parties make sense. In the US, Democrats and Republicans have fostered a healthy democracy, like UK’s Labour and the Conservatives. A behemoth of ODM-UDA can be a magic bullet to good changes in our politics.

The writer is a communications practitioner. X:@markoloo