Uhuru roars back, but how will his return influence the 2027 election?

Can former President Uhuru Kenyatta successfully create a united opposition to field a strong single candidate against President William Ruto in the 2027 presidential elections, as he promised earlier this week after failing in 2022?

Political pundits believe it is possible, as the opposition still has two years to plan effectively. However, they caution that they must begin serious groundwork now, or risk running out of time. “They should move out of Nairobi to make a bigger impact among voters; otherwise, they will not catch up with President Ruto, who is already campaigning. If they continue posing for nice portraits in the city with little action on the ground, they will fall behind,” says analyst Prof Macharia Munene.

From the looks of things, it appears that the former president and his allies in the Azimio One Kenya coalition have not learned from the resounding defeat they unexpectedly suffered in August 2022, when President William Ruto defeated Raila Odinga in a surprisingly tight contest.

A viral TikTok clip, created by a self-proclaimed ODM youth primary school dropout turned content creator, captures Prof Munene’s concerns. The video rightly cautions Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka to stop holding press conferences at SKM offices in Nairobi and instead engage in serious “meet the people” tours around the country.

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Produced in Swahili, it urges Kalonzo and his team to reach more areas: “Tembea Kenya, muko na team nzuri ya Eugene, Natembeya, Matiang’i, Omutata na wengine. Tengenezeni campaign muoneyese munataka kuokoa Wakenya. Sahii Ruto anatembea, Western na North Eastern na nyinyi mko hapa.”

“Tembea kila pahali. Ruto akitoka nyinyi munaingia, Hii mambo yakufanya mikutano hapa Karen achana nayo, TV haiwezi okoa Kenya. Angalia Rigathi Gachagua vile anafanya Mt Kenya na sasa amekua tisho. Toeni mali yenu muokoe Kenya kwa udi na uvumba.”

The video and audio recording was released before former president Uhuru Kenyatta convened a Jubilee NEC party meeting. Little was revealed about the agenda apart from an announcement that former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’I will be the Jubilee presidential candidate in 2027.

The announcement came when president William Ruto was on a five-day whistle stop tour of the Western region, where he opened a few development projects and campaigned for his 2027 re-election. He then moved on to the North Eastern region, where he halted the vetting of national identification card applicants, among other decisions linked to the upcoming election.

During a postmortem of the 2022 presidential election, political pundits and MPs, including Vihiga Senator Geoffrey Osotsi, pointed out that Ruto exceeded expectations because of the intensive, non-stop, countrywide campaign he embarked on from 2015.

Two weeks ago, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua recounted how Ruto mesmerised voters in the entire Mt Kenya region by memorising the names of villages and roads, warning that he was doing the same in the Western region.

However, this week, President Ruto himself appeared unhappy with the ongoing politicking in the country, stating: “The problem is not the citizens of Kenya, but the leadership. How can you campaign forever?”

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, however, reminded him that he campaigned for “nine years when he was Uhuru’s deputy,” and, therefore, has no moral authority to complain, as he has already embarked on his 2027 campaign.

Prof Macharia notes that Uhuru and his candidate, Raila, failed to defeat Ruto in 2022 because they were not serious and appeared disorganised. But he believes the former president could still use his influence to help one of the candidates win if the opposition plans effectively. It should be noted that Ruto conducted repeated campaigns across almost all sub-counties when he was vice president, and crucially, and camped in the vote-rich Mt Kenya region. Nevertheless, Ruto failed to persuade Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula to remain in the One Kenya Alliance, which contributed to Raila’s failure to reach the 50+1 threshold required to secure victory.

Reports from the Jubilee NEC meeting indicated that they resolved to use all available resources to support Matiang’i in securing the backing he needs to become the opposition’s presidential candidate.

Prof Gitile Naituli of Multimedia University of Kenya (MMU), however, argues that Uhuru can only succeed if he backs a candidate committed to winning the election by ensuring they have agents in all polling stations and tallying centres. “He (Uhuru) is still influential. The Mt Kenya region can now resonate with him because he warned them last time against voting for Ruto, and they did not listen. Gachagua is already doing some good work there for them,” says Naituli.

The former president has urged each party to organise itself before meeting to agree on a suitable presidential candidate. But can he rally the opposition, which has historically struggled to agree on a single candidate?

Political pundits agree that this is a thorny issue that needs to be addressed early, saying it presents a significant challenge that may require Uhuru to use both his financial resources and negotiation skills as soon as possible instead of waiting until it is too late.

Prof Munene also argues that the opposition in Kenya will not offer alternative leadership if they continue mobilising support along regional and ethnic lines instead of presenting a credible alternative programme and policies.

Political scientists have also argued that the electorate is becoming increasingly aware, and the opposition in Kenya can no longer simply be vehicles to capture power or defeat the incumbents. “The credibility of the opposition is not only dependent on its ability to present a united front, but also on its ability to present a credible alternative programme, supported by proper political ideology, national structures, and leadership,” says Kasembeli Werunga of Dodoma University.

He argues that so far, the opposition in Kenya has failed to demonstrate a proper understanding of national problems and a commitment to creating change, which means that little will change if they are elected into office.

Due to the flip-flopping and alliances that opposition leaders continue to make with the government, such as the current broad-based government, it is clear that they are more interested in personal rather than public interest.

The absence of alternative voices in government has created a situation where lawlessness and disorder—such as ongoing abductions and killings—are encouraged, as all politicians are part of the executive, while the remaining few have no voice. Prof Naituli has also pointed out that many opposition parties are weak, fragmented, and internally quarrelsome due to poor management, leadership structures, and weak financial bases, making their leadership easily compromised.

A viable opposition that can challenge the ruling party is needed to create a clear division between the executive and the legislature. Currently, the president remains a very influential part of parliament, and many cabinet members were asked to resign from either parliament or their senior political positions, further compromising the role of parliamentary oversight.

It is also argued that Uhuru will need to ensure that all political players in the Mt Kenya region, including Gachagua, Nark Kenya’s Martha Karua, CS Justin Muturi, and former Governor Peter Munya, speak with one voice in supporting his choice of Matiang’i as the region’s presidential candidate.

Former Principal Secretary Irungu Nyakera is among those in the region who have questioned why Uhuru is backing someone from outside the region to champion their political interests. “The Mt. Kenya ‘kingpin’ has endorsed Matiang’i. I wonder when Mt Kenya will wake up and pick a political leader who will champion their agenda and offer political leadership,” Nyakera wrote on his X account.

He argues that Uhuru should have provided leadership, mentored someone, and made them acceptable to the community before handing over the baton, as leadership abhors a vacuum. This has led to many small political factions emerging, ultimately resulting in a divided region. He also states that many leaders could have emerged in the region, as even Matiang’i, who has never run for a political seat, is now being considered the Kisii kingpin. “Western seems to have settled on a few: Musalia Mudavadi, George Natembeya, Eugene Wamalwa, and Moses Wetangula, while the Coast has Joho, Kingi, and Mvurya. Mt Kenya doesn’t have anyone who has truly emerged as a leader. The question is, who will unite the mountain? Is it Uhuru or Rigathi, and can they coexist?” asks the former PS.

The question that Uhuru himself must answer is: Can he create a more solid coalition than the one he failed to deliver in 2022? What can he do differently to create a force that can defeat President Ruto this time?

Can he harness the strong winds of support from young voters and the restive Mt Kenya region to propel Matiang’i, or any other candidate, into power? Only time will tell.