In Raila, Africa will have a lion leading the AU commission

Raila Odinga’s bid for the African Union Commission chairmanship rekindles memories of his relentless political journey. From five presidential attempts in Kenya to now seeking Africa’s top diplomatic post, his campaign is as intense as ever. But will this be his defining moment?

I have been in Addis since February 5th to gather the tone from diplomats streaming in for the AU summit. Unbeknownst to many, in Ethiopia, the year today is 2017. This takes me back to Baba's 2017 moment of 'NASA hawa’, a clarion call spearheaded by Musalia Mudavadi.

As Baba hopes to capture Africa, Musalia is again leading his campaign team. What a coincidence that the 5th President of Kenya William Ruto, is the one now pushing for his then arch-rival to become the 5th African Union Commission chairman. 

As I sat in the Meles Zenawi AU accreditation hall, diplomats were all discussing the elections and Raila's name dominated the discussions. Raila’s charisma has generated unprecedented global attention around the AUC elections never seen before. Journalists have travelled from far and wide. Observers at the AU say this is the first election of such high stakes in the history of AUC elections. Indeed Raila has proved, just as it is in his campaign mantra, that he is the lion of Africa.

On the campaign trail, few can match Raila's unmatched energy, passion and industry. He has the rare gift of the gab, exceptional oratory and humour that flip undecided voters. Official sources at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicate that Kenya has canvassed 28 sure votes, just six short of the 32 two thirds super majority required to capture the seat.

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Raila has secured votes across religious and racial divides, bridging support between Africans of colour and Arabic-speaking Africans. He has conquered both the Anglophone and Francophone countries. Indeed, the lion of Africa has conquered without any fear of race, language, religion or region. A fearless and bold lion is what Africa needs in the fast-changing diplomatic space. 

Raila’s race has been tough at home, with the Gen Zs and Kenyan tribal supremacists wishing him to fail for working closely with President Ruto. Posters, silhouettes and a lot of misinformation has been flying across the Kenyan social media space with speculations that Kenya's candidate is unpopular and on the verge of losing. 

Reassuringly, Mr Onyango Ochieng, a commentator on geopolitics, argues that this election is Baba's to lose. He argues that many diplomats who have observed AU elections before, say Kenya's candidate is a giant. 

Another factor that advantages Raila is Kenya's strategic position in the continent and in the global stage. In 2019, despite being the sole African candidate, endorsed by the African Union, Djibouti defied the AU common endorsement and vied against Kenya during our quest to be a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. No lobbying could stop them and all were squared at the ballot where Djibouti was left with a rotten egg on the face, garnering less than a tenth of the votes. Would history repeat itself once more?  

Raila has another edge because of the popularity of President Ruto and his influence across Africa and the globe. Ruto was given a standing ovation when he addressed the Pan - African conference in South Africa and his remarks at the Mo Ibrahim show have trended and won admiration across the length and breadth of Africa. He as well received accolades after his speech in Paris on climate change. 

In less than two years as President, Ruto has hosted over 52 heads of states including the British Royal family and is the first African President to be granted a State Visit to the US in over two decades. He is now entrusted by African Heads of States, to be the AU Champion of Reforms chaperoned by former Kenyan Ambassador to the US Ambassador Lazarus Amayo. This trust can only be stamped by giving him an AUC Chairman who he will easily work with to implement the reforms at the AU to achieve the much coveted AU Agenda 63. On this premise and respect, Kenya's candidate has an edge over the two others. 

Win or lose, Raila has given this campaign his best. Baba's speech at ODM prayers at Bomas reminds me of Nelson Mandela's words, "Do not judge me by my successes, judge me by how many times I fell down and got back up again.” His resilience and renaissance is what historians will use to judge him, not the outcome of this voting event. 

As Raila seeks to script history once more, will Africa choose the lion to lead its pack, or will it opt for an underdog? The decision lies with African presidents on Saturday.

-The writer is a big data strategist. [email protected]