Raila must now decide whether to cut or strengthen his ties with Ruto

President William Ruto’s administration officially endorsed Raila’s bid for the AUC position creating an uncommon display of political cooperation. Raila’s new position created doubts about his responsibilities in Kenya’s inclusive government system.

Raila's victory and subsequent move to the AUC position would have transformed opposition dynamics and resulted in a reconfiguration of political alliances. Now that his bid has failed, attention turns to the future interactions between Raila and the government. Raila must decide whether to maintain his cooperative approach with the government or establish himself as the key opposition leader through adversarial tactics.

The collaboration between Raila and Dr Ruto’s government appears to have created an impression of diminished opposition strength which in turn impacted his support throughout Kenya and across Africa.

The election outcome emerged from the combined influence of regional political interactions and internal African Union dynamics.

The High Court of Kenya issued a landmark decision during the AUC election declaring the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Alliance as the majority coalition in the National Assembly. The court ruling negated Speaker Moses Wetang’ula's previous endorsement of the Kenya Kwanza coalition.

The simultaneous occurrence of this judicial ruling and Raila's defeat in the AUC election bid has led to conjecture about hidden political strategies. Kenya now enters a phase of political reorientation while possible changes loom over alliances and leadership structures alongside legislative plans.

Raila's loss in the AUC election together with the High Court's support for Azimio la Umoja have created the foundation for Kenya's upcoming political era. By returning to domestic politics, Raila stands to use the court decision to strengthen his party's presence in Parliament. Raila may choose to stay strategically removed while taking on an elder statesman role among opposition members.

Ruto’s government faces challenges in sustaining an inclusive administration due to the unsuccessful AUC election campaign which might worsen if Raila re-enters the political arena as an active opponent. The change in parliamentary power may lead the opposition to challenge government policies with increased intensity.

The next several months will determine if Raila will work collaboratively with Ruto or revert to his role as the 'people’s president' to oppose the government. The recent political developments will lead to substantial changes in Kenya’s political environment.