Ruto, Raila handshake is all about self-preservation, not progress

We begin with the obvious. It is early 2025, but Kenya’s 2027 election campaign has already begun. You don’t need to wait for too long to hear someone saying, “I don’t know who will be President in 2027, but I know who will not!”. 

Last Friday’s handshake marked 941 days since the 2022 election, and 886 days to go to the 2027 one. It also marked 906 days since inauguration, bible and sword; 862 days since the first Cabinet was sworn in, 211 days since “ODM experts” joined the reformulated Cabinet and 49 days since the most recent appointment of the 3K’s (Kagwe, Kabogo and Kinyanjui) to the self-same cabinet in yet another reformulation.  It was also Day 826 for Principal Secretaries now on the chopping block as the administration reportedly pursues its latest round of government reorganisation, including more Cabinet changes. There is a nagging sense of self-inflicted chaos and instability in this administration’s workings. 

In this frame of uncertainty, the handshake is basically a band-aid to keep government going till 2027. The wording in the agreement says as much, while quietly hinting at possible arrangements for the 2027 poll. 

Yet, as said before, a more strategic administration would have seen – in an electoral term of three 18-month semesters (September 2022-March 2024 recovery; March 2024-September 2025 turnaround; September 2025-March 2027 transformation) – that they are only two thirds through their second semester to September, 2025, with a final semester before the five months (150 days) to the 2027 election. So, our current (second semester) conversation should be less about pain, and more about gain. Yet, the conversation today is about Kenyans as worse off today than we were in 2022. Public patience with this administration is gone and its endless succession of flowery promises are openly dismissed as “hot air”. 

There is a supreme irony in this handshake moment. The current administration sought to elevate our electoral choices from “whom” (identity and individuals) to “what” (issues and ideas). Then, in 2024, Gen Z walked in with the higher question of “why” (ideology and interests) before “whom” and “what”. Lest we forget, we would not be shaking hands today without the deadly protests of 2024, after those of 2023.  

But it’s more than this. “Why” is about leadership principles above and beyond clever ideas. Mostly, it is a reminder that the 2010 Constitution answers this “why” question, that it will likely underpin the Gen Z revolution going into the 2027 election that seeks a leader who implements katiba as law, and policy.  Today’s Kenya needs a “governator” (governance and rule of law leader), not a securocrat or econocrat. 

There is a second angle to this handshake. What does the 10-point MoU between ODM and UDA tell us? First is the clear red herring around “full” implementation of the National Dialogue Committee (Nadco) report, which even Parliament doesn’t think is possible. By example, with only 886 days to go to the next election, do we also have time for a referendum when we already don’t have time for a comprehensive boundaries review?  

As to the other nine points on inclusivity, devolution, youth livelihoods, leadership and integrity, national debt, corruption, the right to protest, government wastage and inefficiency and general rule of law and constitutionalism, the general consensus is these are things that should already be happening. Simply, this is all stuff the current administration was elected to do, unless the handshake means they couldn’t before. 

It is also easy to be cynical here. Between the protests of 2023 and 2024, we had Nadco and its five main themes – electoral justice (is 2022 still to be audited?), outstanding constitutional matters (including cost of living and the 2/3rds gender rule), respect for multi-party democracy (including “poaching of MPs”),  constitutionalising funds (NGCDF, NGAF, Senators Oversight and MCA Ward Development Funds) and spanking new offices for a Prime Minister on one hand, and a Leader of the Opposition on the other. This is the Nadco, including a promised a multi-task commission of inquiry, which is now a red herring. 

Remember the 2018 BBI handshake? That was the Building Bridges Initiative around nine issues (national ethos; divisive politics; ethnic antagonism and competition; inclusivity; shared prosperity; rights with responsibilities; corruption as a way of life; devolution’s viability and public safety and security).   What happened?  As said before, through the courts we either recklessly or deliberately threw out the bouncing baby of a useful policy agenda with the dirty bathwater of a ham-fisted attempt at constitutional reform. 

Go back to the mother of all handshakes, the one that followed our 2007/2008 post-election violence. Unlike recent versions, it was clever enough to define both a political settlement and a people’s settlement. The “nusu mkate” Grand Coalition Government captured the elite political settlement as Agenda 3 of the National Accord. Agenda 4 on 10 long-term issues captured the people’s settlement, in which a new constitution was only one of these issues. Lest we forget, we were also supposed to do “root and branch” police, parliamentary, executive/civil service, judicial and land reform. Only in the Judiciary do we see progress. There were also commitments to address poverty, inequity and regional imbalances (partly addressed by devolution); unemployment, especially among the youth; national cohesion and unity and transparency, accountability and impunity (read, corruption). This was our basic post-war template for national reconstruction that is still not delivered, and subsequent handshakes water everything down. 

So here we are today. 886 days to the next election, but with a little imagination, at the 2/3rds stage of the second of three 18-month semesters. With a leadership currently facing hard “why”, not simply “what” questions that won the 2022 election yet reverting to type in going back to the “whom” that this handshake basically represents. 

Presenting Kenyans with an MoU that pretty much says nothing, but keeps a safe distance from Kenya’s real long-term issues. In other words, a political settlement claiming, but failing, to be a people’s settlement. Yet, for the leadership, this handshake buys a fully compliant Parliament as protective cover for ongoing policy misadventures till 2027. Meanwhile, get ready for two more years of “inclusive” broad-based government (not economy) and “equity-led” development (not progress) tours.