Ruto and Raila 'marriage' is not forever; they will surely fall out

Kenyan politics is a maze so intricate that even the so-called smartest minds often fail to grasp its shifting dynamics. It changes daily, making predictions a fool’s game. The so-called political analysts have been reduced to spectators, offering vague statements like, “We’ll see how things unfold”. The truth is, they have no clue. The political elites are forming alliances that masquerade as coalitions but are nothing more than self-preservation vehicles.

The other day, ODM leader Raila Odinga and President William Ruto buried the hatchet and inked a deal for a perfect working arrangement. The two fierce politicians are not political strangers; they have closely worked together before. Raila was the candidate, and Ruto was his chief campaigner in the 2007 disputed elections, in which the Kibaki 'Deep State' has always been accused of cleverly snatching the presidency from Raila.

For political foreshadowing’s sake, it would be foolhardy to fail to assert that the unprecedented merger between Raila and Ruto is nothing but politics of convenience. The two men—ambitious, ruthless, and commanding massive followings—will eventually turn on each other. This partnership may be temporary, held together by mutual need rather than a shared vision. Raila, now effectively Ruto’s co-president, will demand his pound of flesh, and Ruto has no choice but to comply. If Raila walks, Ruto's fragile government might crumble.

They say the more things change, the more they remain the same. The ODM pentagon of 2005 that beat Kibaki in a referendum is back with a full bang. The deal is finally sealed, and Raila is squarely a co-president. It is now official: ODM, ANC, and UDA will work together going into the 2027 polls. The only slight change is that the late Joe Nyagah, who was a founding member of ODM from Mt Kenya East, will now be replaced with Deputy President Kithure Kindiki. Some of the communities in Mt Kenya East, who have been marginalised for far too long alongside the Meru and Embu in the name of GEMA to benefit and sustain the hegemony from Kiambu and Nyeri, will see changes. From the Coast, Najib Balala will now be replaced with Sultan Ali Hassan Joho. The rest of the team are fit as fiddle. With Musalia Mudavadi manning the goal, Moses Wetangula will occupy the full-back defensive position, as Raila takes charge of the midfield, whereas Ruto becomes the main striker and the team's talisman.

Lest you be deceived, politics is nothing close to service-rendering. Unless it has lately acquired a different meaning, politics in Africa is defined as the act of convergence of interests and self-enrichment. Once interests diverge and fail to coalesce, it ceases to be politics and becomes the onerous task of serving an ungrateful citizenry.

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For those who are unfamiliar with statecraft, be advised that it is not always about politics and development polemics bandied around by the political honchos. It is big business undertakings and self-preserving rendezvous. Do not be misled to casually think that anyone in politics cares about your well-being more than they care about themselves and their business bottom lines. You are just political chattels to be mortgaged to China and other merchants for a pound of flesh, and pawns to be sacrificed for the sustenance and protection of the king, his queen, and his household, including lackeys and hangers-on, including brothers who adopt themselves into the inner sanctum of the Royal Court.

Political systems and leadership in Kenya do not take a different path either. Their multi-pronged approach is the diversion of state resources to the widened pockets of the ruling class. Statecraft can be surmised in the basic definition of politics—who gets what, when, how, where, and perhaps why. It is common knowledge that the real business of the state is not conducted in plenary; that is just for show and photo ops, to dupe the common folk into believing that the state is working. The real business is done on the sidelines and behind the scenes of any international or local political signing of pacts and agreements.

And so, the cycle repeats. Political survival in Kenya is not about ideology, service, or progress. It is about outmaneuvering your opponent before they do the same to you. This Raila-Ruto deal might not be a step towards national stability; it may be a prelude to another brutal political bloodbath. The question is not if betrayal will happen, but when and who will strike first.

Mr Toroitich is a communication lecturer and Researcher