Why you can't write off Ruto in Mt Kenya as 2027 contest nears

Kenyan politics is such transient business that writing on it is best avoided. I have been in this land long enough, watched the rough and tumble of politics, that I now live by the Mandago principle, keep politics in the lungs.

But this week’s visit to Mt Kenya by President Ruto is one of those political events where silence can end up being too loud. Prior to the visit, most pundits, including many who support the President, had written him off in Mt Kenya.

The firing of Gachagua and the often voluble “buyer’s remorse”, which commenced soon after the polls, had poisoned the political atmosphere in ways unimaginable so soon after the 2022 magic.

In that consequential election, President Ruto had dethroned the previously much beloved Uhuru Kenyatta as the region’s kingpin. This week, the President received a pleasantly vibrant welcome in all the places he visited.

While the vibe was not at the 2022 levels, it was generally welcoming and quite energetic in some places which must please the President’s team, considering that these are mid-term rallies held in the midst of economic woes across the board. Interestingly, the gusto for the President was not extended to his lieutenants, especially MPs. There were widespread anti MP boos and jeers in most places.

Naturally, the President’s detractors will argue that his “cheerers” were hired crowds and that the negative sentiments remain strong. It may well be that some crowds were the “rent a crowd” kind, which is typical in present day politics. There was however some level of energy in many places that cannot be explained by cash. Others will argue that the crowds were just being civil, it is impolite to treat visitors badly however strong the negative feelings.

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But these are the same Mt Kenya crowds that publicly treated President Uhuru with disdain. The honest will admit that the romance between the President and Mt Kenya still has some embers which have not fully died off. Clearly, Wamunyoro has not completely conquered the mountain’s heart. The anti-Ruto fury in the mountain may well be that of a scorned bride rather than a hate affair. Only time will tell. There are however rational explanations for the retention of some pro-Ruto sentiments. 

When I listen to many in Mt Kenya, they indicate non-inspiration from those offering themselves thus far for the 2027 race. This situation is made worse by the realisation that the region will not produce a strong presidential candidate in 2027, meaning the region will still need to negotiate a share of government with a candidate from another region.

Many of the political elite in Mt Kenya (and let’s be honest this is a political elite issue) wonder whether it is worth leaving President Ruto to seek an untried suitor. Even when they are unhappy with the President, they are not convinced that he has totally betrayed them, Riggy G notwithstanding.  

Further and to his credit, even those who don’t like him recognise that the President is a charmer. People like to be charmed. I remember that the primary reason many mountain folk reacted negatively to Uhuru was his perceived anger every time he came to the region, full of irritation and angst whenever he passed River Chania. Clearly, the die is not cast for President Ruto in Mt Kenya.

If over the next two years government were to fully commit to dealing with the economic challenges that currently ail Kenya, including cleaning up the health and education sectors, halt some of its excesses, including abductions and ostentatious “helicopter” consumption, the President may end up being unassailable by 2027.

I say all this knowing we are two years away from the next election. That is a lifetime in politics. The crowds that said “Hosanna to the highest” this week could still shout “Crucify him” next week.

There are also many unknown factors in the next elections, including the impact of a still frustrated Gen Z voting bloc. But for those planning to unseat President Ruto, they may need to go back to the drawing board.

Ultimately, what we all pray for is a peaceful, prosperous Kenya where freedom and justice reign. We have two years to decide who best delivers on this hope.

-The writer is an advocate of the High Court of Kenya