The Ruto-Uhuru interest in ODM as Azimio faces imminent death

Faced with its strongest storm, the Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Coalition is undoubtedly crumbling.

A decision by its leader Raila Odinga to embrace dialogue with President William Ruto has various forces pulling in different directions.

Sources aware of the developments in the opposition outfit speak of multiple colliding interests and deep-seated issues from the 2022 General Election that have remained unsettled.

On Tuesday, Raila joined President Ruto in announcing talks set to start tomorrow, which will see a coalition government, the “broad-based political arrangement” Ruto announced, set up. 

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His Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has backed the talks as necessary to “restore lasting peace and stability and address long-standing issues”.

However, the truce was met with sharp criticism from within Azimio. Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Azimio’s deputy leader Martha Karua opposed it.

As did Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni and former Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa, who said that he was “not boarding” as soon as news of the Ruto-Raila talks came out. 

Raila’s party is on Tuesday scheduled to hold a parliamentary group meeting, where its lawmakers will be briefed on the central committee’s support of the talks and ostensibly craft a resolution on the subject.

The meeting comes days after Ruto also met Mt Kenya leaders to justify his new-found association with Raila, telling them that Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua had deserted him to pursue political interests.

The Sunday Standard has authoritatively learnt that Ruto is exploring a long-lasting partnership with Raila to help quell the storms stirred by his deputy, which could culminate in the opposition backing Ruto’s re-election in 2027.

Sources said in their consultations, Raila and Ruto had recounted the partnership that saw them form ODM in 2005 and which eventually helped them bag half of the grand coalition government.

On the flip side, the former Prime Minister is facing pressure to let the Head of State, under siege from Gen Zs and Millennials, carry his cross. 

Kalonzo said a partnership with Ruto would equate to “sanitising” the President. On her part, Karua ruled out joining forces with Ruto.

“If ODM goes into the government it will not be us as Azimio and if they go as Azimio, then we will withdraw immediately,” she told The Standard on Friday.

The pressure is equally formidable from former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party, which sees the current revolt as the beginning of the end of Ruto’s presidency.

Kioni, the spokesperson of Uhuru’s party, recently described Ruto’s overtures to the opposition as inspired by his “self-preservation” need.

Wamalwa, another key ally of Uhuru’s is not relenting in his opposition against the Ruto-Raila talks.

Kioni said Jubilee’s position was that “it was difficult to dialogue with William Ruto”, arguing that the talks with Ruto would only give him the legitimacy he has now lost.

Wamalwa said the decision was between siding with Gen Z liberators or Ruto, whom he termed the oppressor.

A host of them shared the podium during the funeral of former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya’s brother, the late Henry Ambetsa, where their differences played out.

Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua sparked the fire, dismissing the talks, even as he called out lawmakers who committed to following Raila blindly into the talks.

“It is shameful that there are MPs saying that if Baba says right they will go right. What is your use to Baba? We must advise our leaders and we should tell them that dialogue is a no,” said Wambua.

“In 2022, we shared Cabinet slots even before the election was held and now we are sharing slots in a government that is not ours. Our dream is to form our own government and not join Ruto’s,” he added.

Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi argued against holding talks with someone “with blood on his hands”.

Siaya Governor James Orengo said talks must start with the Gen Zs, adding that the youths had opened up an avenue to oust the president before the next polls, saying “Ruto’s feast is a poisoned chalice...talking to Ruto is ensuring his survival.” Others like Busia Governor Paul Otwoma defended the talks, terming Raila’s acceptance of the dialogue an act of “courage”

“We can’t let Kenya collapse...in 2007, Baba saw the nation was greater and made sacrifices,” he stated, a view shared by Kisii Governor Simba Arati.

“Baba, because you have saved the nation several times, do it one more time so that we can see the light as we enter Canaan,” said Arati.

Such glaring differences led University of Nairobi lecturer Francis Owakah to conclude that Azimio is as good as done.

“Azimio’s survival depends on whether Raila reconsiders his support for Ruto. His co-principles seem more principled and have stood with the Gen Zs. It is curious that Raila has chosen to abandon the Gen Zs to sanitise the President,” said Dr Owakah.

But Homa Bay Town Member of Parliament Peter Kaluma dismissed the rift, arguing that the adverse positions by Raila’s partners in Azimio were yet to be formally communicated.

“Ours is a coalition that brings together different political parties anchored on different ideologies. We have not been brought together to take a position on this particular issue (coalition government talks). The nature of Azimio is that people speak their minds freely. Each leader will take independent positions until the coalition meets,” said Kaluma.

There is evidently a dilemma that faces ODM lawmakers as they meet on Tuesday. Do they side with an ally that backed their leader’s fifth presidential bid or a rival that promises to bring them on board?

Saboti MP Caleb Amisi described Raila as being in a bad position, urging him not to pull out if matters go south.

“If things get out of hand, give them the nominees they want from you and come join us,” Amisi told him during the funeral.

The MPs have been here before. Last year’s talks between Raila and Ruto, through the National Dialogue Committee, faced equal resistance from among some of the coalition partners.

Kaluma yesterday defended the dialogue, saying the opposition should not stand aside amid the current political shakeup. 

“The things I have seen in this country since the Gen Z started their clamour are a bit scary,” said Kaluma, warning of the downward path that has accompanied other uprisings in other countries.

ODM chairman John Mbadi recently backed the talks, saying they would help address emerging issues in a “structured and coordinated manner”.

The positive reception of the dialogue is mostly among several lawmakers from Nyanza and the Coast, some of whom feel that Uhuru failed Raila in 2022 by failing to deliver the presidency.

“After helping stabilise Jubilee, it is sad that Uhuru’s allies don’t even want him to get the African Union position and are constantly blackmailing us,” said a lawmaker who sought anonymity, adding that they would be open to backing Ruto’s re-election bid if the coalition government were to succeed.

Many within ODM have harboured negative sentiments, with Embakasi East Member of Parliament Babu Owino being the most vocal in the wake of the presidential election, when he termed Uhuru’s support of Raila “a long con”.

Babu, however, has not been too enthusiastic about talks, openly aligning with demands by Gen Zs and Millennials that Ruto should resign over the brutality meted out by the police against peaceful protesters.