Can Kalonzo fill Raila's big shoes?

He is in a pole position to be the next opposition leader after Raila Odinga, who is now working closely with President William Ruto to clinch the African Union Commission Chair position, steps away from active politics.

Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka, the senior most politician in Azimio after Raila, has declared that he is taking over the latter’s mantle.

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Mixed reactions have greeted Kalonzo’s declaration. While some political observers argue that the stars have aligned in favour of Kalonzo, some say the former Vice President lacks the charisma and stamina to take over the role that Raila has held for many years.

Nevertheless, the departure of Raila, who has been at the helm of opposition politics for two decades most of the time without a constitutional office, is seen as an opportunity for the opposition to reinvent itself. 

Kalonzo is perceived to stand head and shoulders above his colleagues in the opposition. But there are arguments that he needs to work on his image to inspire confidence among Kenyans.

DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa and Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni have endorsed Kalonzo as the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition leader.

Political commentators argue that for Kalonzo to benefit from Raila’s exit, he must rebrand himself.

Given the ethnic nature of Kenyan politics, Kalonzo must cobble a team of influential regional or community leaders to enable him to have a wider political base to match the Kenya Kwanza coalition support base.

Analysts say the country will soon witness a reconfiguration of the political landscape following the Ruto-Raila pact hence the need for Kalonzo to pull all the stops to re-organise the opposition troops and expand his political base.

Former Molo MP Njenga Mungai, who served with Kalonzo in Parliament, told The Standard that although the opposition appears disorganised, Kalonzo can leverage his experience as a former vice president, long-serving MP, Cabinet minister, diplomat, party leader and lawyer to marshal opposition forces.

Mungai said although Kalonzo has been branded a “watermelon” by his detractors, this will not dent his image as a leader as similar accusations were leveled against Mwai Kibaki during his tenure in the opposition.

“Kibaki was described as general Kiguoya (Kikuyu for coward) while judged against Kenneth Matiba and Jaramogi Oginga. But when the two exited the political scene, Kibaki became the automatic choice of the people who embraced him and eventually supported his presidential bid which ushered him to State House in 2002,” Mungai said.

He said Kalonzo had demonstrated his leadership ability by running an organised political party, the Wiper Democratic Party, for the past 14 years.

Mungai said politics all over the world is local and most political parties organise around ethnic and regional interests before they forge strategic alliances with other like-minded parties.

“It is my view that Kalonzo has the opportunity to strengthen his base in Ukambani and then join hands with leaders from Mt Kenya region and other parts of the country which have embraced his leadership,” Mungai added.

But former MP for Subukia Koigi wa Wamwere sees Kalonzo as indecisive and lacks the courage to keep the government on its toes.

National discourse

“He lacks the conviction and vigour to push controversial ideas and positions in national discourse,” Koigi said.

He called on progressive forces to come together to ensure the government operates within the Constitution.

“The country’s hope now lies in the emboldened civil society, some sections of the church, and the reinvigorated youth movement. Politicians who represent the status quo cannot provide effective leadership and oversight against the Ruto regime which does not play by the rules,” Koigi said.

One-time nominated Senator Harold Kipchumba says Kalonzo faces the tough task of standing up against the new-found Ruto-Raila alliance.

“Given the unfolding political scenario, how prepared is Kalonzo to unseat President Ruto in 2027?” Kipchumba poses.

He says the newfound political friendship between Ruto and Raila rekindles the memories of the 2007 election where the two were part of the ODM Pentagon which was made up of leaders from diverse ethnic communities.

“Musyoka’s success as an opposition leader will now depend on the capacity of the Mt Kenya region to re-organise itself, consolidate its numbers and throw its weight behind him. As of now, Musyoka has the Kamba block that covers a huge part of Eastern Kenya and pockets in Nairobi and Coast regions,” Kipchumba said.

The politician said for Kalonzo to be an effective opposition leader, he must repackage himself and demonstrate his capacity to address issues affecting Kenyans and also present his team as a credible government-in-waiting.

Mungai said the Jubilee faction headed by Kioni needs to be revamped through the recruitment of members and strengthening of its governance structures to enable it to form a formidable alliance with Kalonzo’s Wiper party.

The former MP, who is the chairman of the Jubilee Party Council of Elders, said Kioni had failed to involve key party organs in decision-making, including the decision to declare Kalonzo the Azimio leader.

“We have been seeing Kioni standing next to Kalonzo in press conferences purporting to represent Jubilee Party but leaders have not met to chart the party’s future political trajectory,” Mungai added.

Kipchumba said Kalonzo also needs to mobilise financial resources “because to mobilise people at the national level and assemble teams of technocrats, one needs a financial muscle.”

“Mwai Kibaki, Uhuru Kenyatta, and Raila Odinga while on the opposition benches had assembled teams of highly skilled technocrats that operated behind the scenes to provide information and strategies required to oversight the government. Musyoka must have such a team,” added Kipchumba.

He added that Kalonzo had an advantage as the Ruto-Raila union could soon fly into storms and that Raila may not deliver all his supporters to Ruto.

“Some of us are apprehensive of moving with Raila to his preferred destination, and apart from Luo Nyanza where he commands a near-fanatical following, supporters in other regions such as Nairobi, Coast, Western, and North Eastern Kenyan are opting to cast their lot with Musyoka,” the former senator added.

Joseph Lotodo, a former Assistant Minister, who also worked with Kalonzo, said with Raila’s exit, the opposition has been thrown into disarray.

Lotodo, a former MP for Baringo East, said Kalonzo, with whom he worked with while in Kanu, was “indecisive and wants to appear good to everybody”.

“An effective opposition leader should have the capacity to analyse the situation and communicate his position to the people without seeking to please any group,” he said.

Political strategist Kabue Mathenge argued that politics is dynamic and Kalonzo could use his experience to play an effective role in the re-imaging political landscape.

“I can see Kalonzo emerging as a formidable political leader with the support of Mt Kenya region which is gravitating towards him. Since independence, the Mt Kenya region has played a significant role in the country’s power matrix. This has been the case for the past two decades,“ Mathenge said.

Mathenge served as Rift Valley provincial presidential campaign coordinator for President Mwai Kibaki. He also served the same role when President Uhuru Kenyatta contested for election and re-election.

“Given that Kalonzo has been generally accepted by elders and political leaders in Mt Kenya region, I see him getting all the support required to enable him to emerge as a dominant opposition leader and leader of an alternative government in waiting,” Mathenge said.

He added: “Kibaki had also been perceived as a political weakling because he was soft and moderate in his approach to national issues but he ended up emerging as a formidable opposition leader and a performing president when he was given an opportunity. Kenyans should allow Kalonzo to prove his worth now that he is at the helm of opposition leadership.”

“Some refer to Kalonzo as watermelon. There are other Kenyans who perceive Ruto and Raila as vampires yet this does not diminish their political status. I believe Kalonzo has what it takes to build his image and provide leadership in the opposition,” Mathenge added.

He views Kalonzo as one of the politicians who is not tainted by corruption, saying he could be a good choice to keep the government in check.

Besides serving as Kibaki’s vice president from 2008 to 2013, Kalonzo held several high-level positions including as Minister of Foreign Affairs from 1993 to 1998.

Kalonzo was among Kanu politicians who ganged up in 2002 to oppose President Daniel arap Moi’s decision to pick Uhuru Kenyatta as his preferred successor and the party’s presidential candidate in that year’s election.

In 2007, Kalonzo unsuccessfully contested for the presidency.

President Kibaki appointed him vice president in the negotiated coalition government after the results of the election were disputed.