The odds against Kimani Ichungwah becoming deputy president

A third-term MP, Ichungwah has openly criticised Gachagua, straining his relationship with some of his constituents. 

Just last weekend, he reaffirmed his support for the impeachment process, saying during a public event, “Ninaenda kwa National Assembly kuhakikisha maneno ya impeachment imeisha ili tupate deputy president mwingine,” loosely translating to mean he intends to ensure the impeachment is finalised so Kenya can have a new DP. 

University of Eldoret lecturer Philip Chebunet believes such remarks could hurt Ichungwa’s prospects. 

“Kimani Ichungwah’s abrasive nature and personal attacks against Rigathi Gachagua suggest he might be quick to seek revenge, which could be the opposite of what President Ruto wants in a replacement,” Chebunet said.

Gachagua has faced criticism for being vindictive, especially toward regions that supported the opposition in the 2022 elections. Analysts like Chebunet believe Ruto may want to avoid another "combative" deputy. 

Political analyst and communications consultant Abdullahi Alas also doubts Ichungwah's chances, ranking him fourth among potential candidates. “With a Gikuyu being possibly removed as Deputy President, Ruto may shift focus to other Mt. Kenya communities, like the Meru and Embu, which could sideline Ichungwa and others from the Gikuyu community,” Alas suggested.

Chebunet shares this view, noting that Ruto might choose to demonstrate that the Deputy President position does not have to be filled by someone from the Gikuyu community or even Mt. Kenya.

Political activist Chege Majuice offers a harsher assessment, arguing that Ichungwah's consideration for the role is more of a consolation than an opportunity for advancement.

According to Majuice, “Ichungwa is seen as a man who sacrificed his own for another’s favor, making his political future uncertain.” Majuice implies that the Kikuyu MP's appointment if it happens, would be more of a gesture of gratitude from Ruto than a strategic move.

However, political analyst Javas Bigambo sees it differently, suggesting that Ruto is free to appoint whomever he chooses, including Ichungwah. 

While Bigambo acknowledges that Ichungwah has not shown strong efforts to build consensus, particularly in the Mt. Kenya region, he believes his future could depend more on his actions if he becomes deputy president than on his past behavior.

Track Record

Despite criticisms of vengefulness and being seen as a “gun for hire,” Ichungwah has a track record of seeking reconciliation. 

He co-chaired the National Dialogue Committee alongside Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, a role he could use to counter his critics if he’s considered for the DP position.

Whether or not Ichungwah ultimately becomes the next Deputy President should the Senate uphold Gachagua's impeachment, he is likely to play a key role in the decision-making process.

 As the highest-ranking MP in Kenya Kwanza, Ichungwah will likely be among those Ruto consults before making a decision. 

If he points to himself, the certified accountant, who once ran a butchery, could achieve a political milestone few have reached.