Kalonzo Musyoka struggles to break free from Raila's political shadow

A few weeks ago, a song by artiste Hezeh Ndung’u went viral on social media platforms. The song praises Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who is featured in the video.

“This man, this man,” the song goes. “This is a good man. He is ours.”

The song gained widespread attention because of Kalonzo’s support for former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua during his impeachment proceedings in Parliament.

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Such suggestions have circulated since President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga formed their ‘broad-based’ alliance.

Ruto’s partnership with Raila has been seen as a blow to Azimio la Umoja One Kenya, the opposition coalition that initially held a majority in the National Assembly but was overtaken by the ruling Kenya Kwanza Alliance.

Earlier this week, Kalonzo’s allies, including Democratic Action Party-Kenya (DAP-K) leader Eugene Wamalwa, announced plans to withdraw from Azimio and form a new coalition. However, Kalonzo has been hesitant about making such a move.

“We are just a few days from the new year, and new things are coming. I believe there will be a new coalition,” said Wamalwa, whose DAP-K has filed a notice to withdraw from Azimio, following in the footsteps of Martha Karua’s Narc-Kenya.

Kalonzo is open to the idea of a new coalition but has seemed reluctant to let go of his ties to Raila-led Azimio, citing the “investment” his party has made in the coalition.

“Don’t bury Azimio before it is actually dead and buried. If we come up with a new outfit, it could, perhaps, incorporate Azimio itself,” Kalonzo said recently.

In some ways, the Wiper leader may be waiting for a chance that never comes. He has previously supported Raila in the last three successive presidential bids, hoping that the former premier would eventually return the favour.

In the aftermath of the 2017 elections, Kalonzo declared he would be “the most foolish man” if he were to back Raila for another presidential bid, but ultimately ended up supporting the former premier in 2022, abandoning his own short-lived presidential aspirations. It remains unclear whether Raila would endorse Kalonzo’s bid for the presidency in 2027, especially if Raila clinches the African Union Commission chair position next February. Former allies have criticised Raila for never stepping aside to support another.

Raila’s relationship with the ruling coalition (Kenya Kwanza) has also been unpredictable. Despite ODM’s involvement in Ruto’s Cabinet, Raila insists that his party remains independent of the Kenya Kwanza government.

These assurances give Kalonzo hope that ODM is still a potential ally, with his supporters also noting that Raila’s party has yet to abandon them.

However, ODM has recently aligned with the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in an effort to send Gachagua home, with some members advocating for a formal partnership with Ruto’s party. These developments have led some to suggest that Kalonzo should consider charting his own course, independent of Raila.

Kalonzo is already viewed as Ruto’s most formidable challenger in the event Raila steps aside, especially since he has taken control of Azimio, declaring himself the leader of the opposition.

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“Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka is beginning to look like a viable presidential candidate, primarily because both President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga look hazardous,” noted Macharia Munene, a professor of history and international relations, in an opinion article last Monday.

Prof Munene observed that Ruto’s partnership with Raila, forged in response to a youth-led uprising that destabilised the system, and Gachagua’s potential ouster, have left “Kalonzo free to prove his political mettle.”

“Kalonzo has to overcome his past disabilities, particularly his image,” he added, referring to Kalonzo’s history with Kanu and his perceived tendency to remain in Raila’s political shadow. He needs to offer clear alternatives to Ruto’s seemingly hazardous domestic agenda and uncertain foreign policy. Without strong opposition challengers, Kalonzo could squander this opportunity,” Munene said.

This assertion suggests that while Kalonzo has yet to firmly make his case for the presidency, he still has room to build momentum.

Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi, a member of Kalonzo’s Wiper party, believes the opposite is true.

“As leaders within Azimio, we met and elected Kalonzo as our leader, and he has been fulfilling that role faithfully. In less than a week, Kalonzo has visited several counties, and he will be in Nyanza and Western this coming weekend. He is focused on what can bring change to Kenyans, who are suffering under the current government,” said Mwangangi, hinting at the formation of a new coalition.

“This is like the River Nile, where we will bring on board anyone who can help us move forward. Before long, you will see it unfold,” he added.

In recent weeks, the former vice president has been working hard to break free from Raila’s shadow by holding various public engagements, where he has strongly criticised the government’s policies.