Musalia Mudavadi's gamble in UDA-ANC merger

The political landscape in the country, particularly in the Western region, is set for a major shift following the merger of the Amani National Congress (ANC) with the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

ANC, a party closely associated with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and with strong support in Western Kenya and select Coast counties, officially ceased to exist on Friday after merging with UDA. 

The announcement at State House confirmed months of speculation about the party’s future, marking the end of the prominent luminous green political outfit, which was founded in 2015.

As the political scene evolves, many are eager to see how Mudavadi, known for his soft-spoken and non-confrontational leadership style, will remain relevant in both national and local politics without his own party.

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READ: UDA and ANC merge to form a unified political party

“He never learns from the mistake he made in 2002 when he remained with the late President Daniel Moi to support former President Uhuru Kenyatta when people were moving to Narc party,” said Barack Muluka, a political analyst.

He added, “Mudavadi should learn from what happened to former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. He shouldn’t expect to be treated differently. Ruto has nothing left for him or the region, and he is just trying to bait the people of Western Kenya because he no longer has Mt Kenya vote.”

Death of a dream

With Mudavadi’s party now joining the ruling party, ANC’s dissolution follows its alignment with the Kenya Kwanza Alliance, formed in 2022.

For many in regions where ANC enjoyed robust support, the merger feels like the death of a dream. Politicians who had hoped to use the party’s ticket in the 2027 elections now find themselves at a crossroads, political orphans. 

According to Dr Muluka, the move marks the end of the road for Mudavadi in the Western region.

READ: Mudavadi's ANC merges with UDA

“This is tragic for the people of Western Kenya. Mudavadi should not assume that because he is comfortable in government, the rest of his community is.  What the Prime Cabinet Secretary has done shows he has lost touch with the people. It reflects lack of leadership and direction, and it will be difficult for people of Western to board the UDA ship because it is unpopular,” said Muluka.

He added,” Mudavadi will be politically irrelevant come 2027 and it is now up to the people of Western Kenya, especially leaders, to rise and fight for their region, not through someone else’s party like ODM, but through their own.I see a new crop of leadership and a party emerging soon to fill the void left by  Mudavadi and his political ally, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula, who have outlived their usefulness.”

The party’s dominance in counties like Vihiga and Kakamega had made it an attractive platform for candidates, and its folding has created a void that may not be easy to fill.

Kennedy Chavanji, a voter and ANC supporter from Chavakali in Sabatia Constituency, criticized the move, terming it ill-advised. “The merger was ill-advised. Every region in Kenya needs an identity, and its kingpins need a platform to survive. We have lost as a region. Now we will have to beg other parties to let us use their tickets in future elections,” he said.

Leadership structure

This sentiment is widely shared, especially in Vihiga County, where Mudavadi and the majority of the now-defunct party’s officials hail from. Speaking during the announcement, UDA chairperson Cecily Mbarire stated that the party had integrated former ANC members into its leadership structure.

ALSO READ: ANC top organs unanimously clear merger with UDA

Issa Timamy, whom Mudavadi had entrusted with ANC leadership after being appointed to the Cabinet, has now been named UDA’s Deputy Party Leader.

Emuhaya MP Omboko Milemba, previously the ANC’s Secretary-General, will serve as UDA’s Deputy Secretary-General alongside Hassan Omar. ANC Chairperson Kevin Lunani has been appointed UDA’s Vice Chairperson. Mbarire also revealed that ANC’s identity symbols would be incorporated into UDA’s new logo, imagery, typography, and branding.

The merger has sparked anxiety among ANC supporters, many of whom feel betrayed by the move, viewing it as a blow to their democracy. However, former officials, led by Milemba, have expressed pride in their new roles within the ruling party.

The merger has complicated the plans of leaders who were hoping to secure ANC tickets for the 2027 elections. Milemba and Vihiga Woman Rep Beatrice Adagala, both former ANC members, had announced their intentions to run for governor in Vihiga. They now face the choice of seeking alternative platforms or aligning with UDA.

Political analyst Moses Ombayo predicts that Ford Kenya, another member of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance, may expand its influence in Vihiga and Kakamega. Ford Kenya, which enjoys strong support in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties under Wetang’ula, could capitalize on ANC’s absence.