Raila's loss at AUC and the expected domino effect

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his newly found political buddy President William Ruto have now been sent back to the drawing board to redefine their relationship after the shocking results from Addis Ababa.

The results that locked out Raila from the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship also slammed the door on the face of the President who was hoping to have unfettered access to Raila's political base ahead of the 2027 general elections.

This was after the Azimio Coalition leader’s defeat in Addis Ababa to Djibouti’s Mohmoud Youssouf.  Raila was only able to win two of the seven voting rounds.

The development is now expected to inadvertently set in motion a series of political realignments in the local political arena that could dictate the outcome of the 2027 general elections.

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Raila is expected to plunge back into local politics and galvanise his troops ahead of the next polls.

President Ruto, who had done most of the heavy lifting in campaigning for Raila, will now have to negotiate with the doyen of Kenya’s opposition every time he wants access to his political dynasty and keep placating him in the hope that he will not be on the ballot.

The results from Addis Ababa also spell doom for the careers of a band of power brokers who have been strategising to act as Ruto’s foot soldiers in his re-organisation of political machinery in a bid to harvest votes from Nyanza and other Raila-dominated strongholds.

Inside the  Orange Democratic Movement Party (ODM), the prospective successors of Raila will also have to take a backseat or face the old lion head-on for a piece of one of Kenya’s oldest political party.

The ripple effects of Saturday’s AUC vote will be felt in Parliament and in the so-called broad-based government.

It is expected that he (Raila) will be seeking to increase his stake in the broad-based government by claiming a majority of the positions in the upcoming Principal Secretaries reshuffle, pushing for the Speaker position in the National Assembly and House leadership committees, which are facing a reconstitution.

Sources who spoke to The Standard revealed that the reshuffle of the PSs had been put on ice to allow for the conclusion of the AUC vote and it was now all systems go. Azimio coalition is also expected to have a Parliamentary Group meeting to discuss its way forward.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi is also a man who now has to recalibrate his political future, especially should Raila go against Ruto and launch his sixth presidency attempt.

Mudavadi was banking on a Raila AUC win, which he had hoped would translate to a Ruto win in 2027. This, sources within the Presidency say, would have helped lay ground for Musalia who is expected to be making his first stab at the Presidency in 2032.

“Since Raila has joined hands with Ruto, I want to ask you, who do you think is strong enough to get into the political ring in 2027 to go against a united Ruto and Raila? As people from the Western region, let us not gamble with our future but support Ruto,” said Mudavadi during a campaign in Western three weeks ago.

Opposition leaders Kalonzo Musyoka and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua were also banking on a Raila exit, which they hoped would bolster their bid to unseat President Ruto in the next elections.

Kalonzo’s allies, for instance, had expressed optimism that with the exit of Raila, Kalonzo stood a chance of clinching the Presidency. Kalonzo has in the recent past postponed his presidential ambitions in support of Raila three times.

Gachagua, who now finds himself an outlier in government, has also been watching closely enough and is expected to leverage the outcome of AUC.

Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka now believes that Raila has politically breathed his last and should now retire following his shock defeat in Addis.

“Raila's loss is stunning to Raila as it is to President Ruto. I am sure that there is now going to be very many political realignments. This loss now changes the trajectory of Kenyan politics. His core is going to have a lot of rethink and redesign in deciding on whether they will continue with Raila as he is or get new partners and arrangements,” said Onyonka.  

 “…But technically, I think Raila has politically rested his boots. I believe he has the best shot at the Presidency, the best shot to go to the African Union. He believed that he had all the support he needed. All the people in the African continent he knew them but if he couldn’t get the vote, I think he just needs to rest,” he added.

Lawyer Nelson Havi, also interpreted Raila’s loss as a sign of bad things to come for Ruto politically.

“The loss shall be felt mostly by President Ruto. It is a bad sign for things to come in future,” he observed.

Former police spokesperson Charles Owino however ruled out any possibility of the outcome of the Saturday’s vote straining the relationship between Ruto and Raila, further observing that the Luo Nyanza voting bloc will vote for Ruto come 2027.

 “The people of Luo Nyanza have a beef with people from a particular region and I am sure if given a choice between William Ruto and that region, then the chance that they will go for Ruto is a hundred percent. Remember, Ruto and Raila have been together for a long time and unless a miracle happens I do not think that will change,” he remarked.

President William Ruto has gone out of his way  to make sure Raila was elected as the next AUC chair. Other than proving to be Raila’s financial muscle, he also would also emerge as the number one advocate for Raila’s candidature.

In February 2024, Ruto embarked on a campaign to market Raila across the East African Community by endearing him to the leadership of countries such as Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, DRC and Somalia who proved key allies in Raila’s bid for the AUC.

Ruto would also engage in shuttle diplomacy across the continent evidenced by his numerous trips. On February February 24, 2024 Ruto was present at the funeral service of the late President Hage Geingob. There, he met other Heads of States and sold Raila’s candidature.

During the same month, he would tag along Raila for a visit to Uganda’s President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni.

The campaigns would continue through the year, culminating in intense behind-the-scenes lobbying come January and early February 2025.

On January 7, 2025, the Head of State was in Accra, Ghana, during the inauguration of President John Dramani Mahama as the President of Ghana. There, he went to bat for Raila on why he was the best suited candidate.

On January 25, 2025, Ruto hosted Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Sissoco Embaló in an event attended by Raila, on January 27, Ruto would continue to advocate for Raila at the opening session of the Retreat of the Extended Bureau on the Implementation of Institutional Reforms of the African Union at State House, Nairobi.

In the same month, he took his campaigns for Raila to the African Heads of States Energy Summit on January 28. He was also in Cair, Egypt where , accompanied by Raila, they met President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and was later in Chad on February 3, where he got the backing of President Mahamat Idriss Déby for Raila’s bid for the AUC chair.