Why Ruto will go all out to ensure Raila doesn't head back to Azimio

Had last week’s African Union Commission (AUC) elections gone according to plan, President William Ruto would be experiencing a few stressors right now.

Securing former Prime Minister Raila Odinga's position as AUC chairperson would have meant that the Head of State would have worried little about recent overtures by opposition politicians seeking to have Raila join them in ousting Ruto in the next elections.

The President would have been sure that the AUC election had birthed a new “moment” that would see him and Raila formalize their partnership. All he did last week was hope that Raila’s defeat would bring forth the said “moment”, essentially ceding his fate to chance.

Now that he lost the AUC election to Djiboutian Mahmoud Youssouf, Raila, poised for a full-blown return to local politics, has the option of countering the President, who seems to have placed all his bets on the opposition chief.

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Without Raila, Ruto looks wounded, so much so that everyone seems to want to duel him.

Former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, and Eugene Wamalwa recently strategized on making Ruto a one-term president. Their plans involve separating the Head of State from Raila.

Ruto and Raila could have their first duel in parliamentary by-elections in Banissa, Ugunja, Magarini and Malava constituencies, which will follow the recruitment of new electoral commissioners.

On Friday, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna teased the battle royale when he attended the funeral of Mzee Kingi Mwaruwa, father of Senate Speaker Amason Kingi, in Kilifi County.

“Watu wa Magarini, asanteni sana kwa kuwa na subira. Wakati ambapo kipenga kitapigwa, kila mtoto atarudi kucheza kwenye mlango wao (To the people of Magarini, we thank you for being patient. When the whistle is blown, every child will go back and play at their doorstep),” said Sifuna, who is also the secretary-general of Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

The Nairobi senator has been critical of Ruto despite the latter’s dalliance with Raila. Sifuna’s remarks signaled a looming split between ODM and Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), whose members have recently acted like bedfellows. They have largely played down differences resulting from a supremacy tussle over majority status in Parliament, eventually agreeing on a formula to share committee slots.

However, the calls to have ODM slight UDA are not dying down. Raila’s brother and Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga recently said ODM would have a presidential candidate in 2027, further complicating Ruto’s plans.

Keen to avert a fallout, Ruto plans to send more enticements Raila’s way. A looming purge of principal secretaries could see the former premier’s allies join Ruto’s “broad-based” government. Having Raila in his corner could help win the Commander-in-Chief the former prime minister’s traditional bases.

Ruto is desperate for support. That he cannot depend on the Mount Kenya region, which contributed the most votes to his 2022 basket is growing more evident by the day. Virtually none of his allies from Central Kenya dare to go back home. Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, who declared he would extinguish former Gachagua’s influence in Mt Kenya, can only fight from his Karen residence.

The signs from the ground are not good. Raila’s Nyanza backyard has recently seemed more promising. Indeed, the Head of State has been received warmly on several trips to the region since his truce with Raila last July.

As the unexpected news from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, reached Raila’s turf last week, the masses' reaction was sharp.

“Ruto must go!” some chanted in Kondele, Kisumu.

Amid all that, there were claims that Ruto’s support for Raila was a “long con” and that the President had been a liability to Kenya’s candidate courtesy of his frequent diplomatic blunders. Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua did not agree with such assertions.

“ Mr Raila Odinga’s AUC win was compromised by the Berlin Conference of 1884-85. President Ruto and PCS Mudavadi went the extra mile by giving Mr Odinga the capacity to do an all-African campaign. Mr Odinga was given the capacity to meet with African heads of state and government besides enjoying unlimited State Support. PCS Mudavadi presented Mr Odinga's candidature to the African diplomatic corps,” said Mokua.

“The Berlin Conference has made parts of Africa remain sensitive to regional, language and religious considerations when voting on key roles and issues at AU. It is not hard to come to the conclusion that the AUC vote reflected Berlin Conference considerations,” he added.

Indeed, Raila, too, tried to reassure the President that he appreciated his efforts, reaching out to peers and selling the former premier’s candidature.

“Let us not regret and say that… Ruto just wanted to humiliate Baba and he was not genuine in saying that he supported him,” the former premier said at a dinner held hours after he lost the AUC bid.

The reasons for Raila’s defeat are still unclear, but discontent among his bases must have been a reality check for the President, who now knows that he has to work harder to win over Raila’s bases. Granting the opposition four slots in the cabinet, it seems, was never really enough.

The President’s allies are already proposing ways to keep the opposition veteran happy. Last week, Belgut Member of Parliament Nelson Koech suggested that the governance structure should be altered to accommodate Raila in “whichever position.”

“Raila Odinga is coming back home. What will Raila Odinga be doing with his energy, wisdom and experience? I think we in Kenya Kwanza should accommodate that experience, advice and the counsel he will give us… we have to find a structure that will accommodate Raila Odinga,” Koech said on Citizen TV.

There has been talk that the former premier should be handed a “prime minister” role. Behind these calls are evident fears that if Raila dumped Ruto then the President’s goose is cooked.

“In the AUC race, Raila was depending on Ruto. Things have changed and Raila is the independent variable and now Ruto is dependent on him. If Raila walks out on the president then he is gone. Ruto can't survive without Raila,” said Dr Charles Ng’ang’a, who teaches at the Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology.

If Dr Ng’ang’a’s assertion is true, then Ruto appears crippled and depends on Raila to hold him up. It was Raila’s help last July that saw Ruto surmount a youth-led bid to oust him from office. When the two announced their partnership, protests died down in Raila’s strongholds and subsequently in other areas.

According to Sifuna, Ruto’s chances of securing re-election are slim even if he were to win Raila’s endorsement.

“Even if ODM supports President Ruto in the 2027 elections, he will still lose. As a Party, we do not support the internal or external affairs of this nation. We will only form alliances with political parties that are like-minded,” Sifuna said in a Citizen TV interview last week.

But not everyone believes the Head of State, who has bragged about previously surmounting the “deep state and system” is entirely powerless. Mokua argued that while Raila’s support would be a major boost, Ruto has proven his mettle before.

“While it is the dream of any 2027 candidate to secure Mr Odinga’s endorsement, it is possible to win any seat without Mr Odinga’s endorsement as demonstrated by history. Mr Odinga’s endorsement is merely an added advantage in the 2027 presidential race. ⁠Mr Odinga has a strong political base but it is possible to move his base by executing an agile strategic narrative and appealing to voters’ selfish interests using strategic messaging,” said Mokua.

Underestimating Ruto has proven a blunder before. Despite gaining former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s support in the 2022 election, Raila lost to Ruto, the then-face of the opposition within the government.

In recent weeks, he has shown that he is ready to move on from Mt Kenya and has campaigned in other regions, the most notable of which has been North Eastern Kenya. He has held Nyanza and Western in as high regard and has won allies, such as Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma, to whom Raila’s AUC loss only strengthened his support for Ruto.