Zoning clamour threatens unity in Opposition and Broad-Based camp

The push for political zoning ahead of the 2027 General Election is now emerging to be a double-edged sword, threatening the fragile pact between parties under the Broad-Based government arrangement — between United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) — and those in the United Opposition formation.

While the ruling UDA party is hurtling to forestall a fallout between it and ODM, over a divergence of opinion on zoning, parties in the Opposition front face a litmus test on their unity ahead of the Ol Kalou by-elections.

Pundits on the other hand argue that the clamour for zoning is the clearest indication of democracy being suffocated by political interests, warning that the actions of the duo formations could lead to a rise of independent candidates and voter apathy from the youth come 2027. 

The United Opposition is facing its biggest test yet, with the looming Ol Kalou mini-polls presenting a headache for the formation. All the member parties have expressed interest in fielding a candidate to replace the late MP David Kiaraho.

It is however, the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua’s insistence that the Opposition should not adopt a zoning strategy that has thrown a wrench in the works — a development that has set him on a collision path with the former President Uhuru Kenyatta-led Jubilee Party. 

His utterances, coinciding with Speaker of the National Assembly Moses Wetangula’s official declaration of a vacancy in the Ol Kalou parliamentary seat earlier this week, have exposed the deep-seated fissures within the Opposition and set the stage for a friendly duel between the Jubilee party, Democratic Action Party (DAP-K), Democratic Party (DP) and DCP.

Speaking during an interview this week, Gachagua ruled out zoning within the United Opposition, saying it will only be applicable in major cities such as Nairobi and Mombasa.

Certain areas

Gachagua opined that in preparation for the 2027 elections, no party within their formation should be barred from fielding candidates in certain areas. 

He further stated that there is no reason for “friendly fire” in major cities such as Nairobi and Mombasa, which, according to him, have unique political dynamics that require a more coordinated approach to gubernatorial elections rather than a divided front. 

“There will be no zoning in the United Opposition, maybe in major cities such as Nairobi and Mombasa, because there is no need for friendly fire,” he said. 

But on the flipside, Jubilee party insists that the formation should adopt a zoning strategy and be allowed to field the only candidate, premised on the fact that the late Kiaraho was serving his third consecutive term on a Jubilee ticket before passing away in March.

Jubilee is pushing its United Opposition partners to stand down from the upcoming Ol Kalou constituency by-election and consolidate support behind a single candidate flying the Jubilee Party flag.

Jubilee Chairman Vincent Kemosi on Wednesday called on coalition partners to rally behind whichever candidate Jubilee settles on, arguing the party is best placed to defend the seat. 

“DCP and all other coalition partners have a right to field a candidate for the Ol Kalou seat, but what we are saying is that Jubilee has held this seat in the last two elections since 2013,” Kemosi said. “In the spirit of togetherness and unity, we believe it would be better for our coalition partners to support Jubilee in this by-election, given that this is a seat we have historically held.”

Stepping aside

Kemosi pointed to Jubilee’s recent show of goodwill, stepping aside in the Mbeere North parliamentary by-election in favour of a Democratic Party (DP) candidate, as justification for expecting reciprocity.

“When we had the Mbeere North by-election, we were persuaded and stepped down in favour of the DP,” he said. “We are asking for the same consideration.”

Jubilee has similarly indicated it will not contest the Emurua Dikirr by-election, scheduled for May 14, where Gachagua’s DCP has already unveiled Vincent Kibet Rotich as its preferred candidate to succeed the late MP Johanna Ng’eno.

“We don’t intend to field a candidate in Emurua Dikirr, our coalition partners will field a candidate and we will support them. We are asking them to extend the same courtesy and back our candidate in Ol Kalou,” Kemosi said.

Kiaraho, who died while receiving medical treatment in March, was buried on April 10.

The call for zoning has also driven a wedge within the Broad-Based arrangement partners even as pundits accuse President William Ruto of employing delay tactics as his party infiltrates ODM’s strongholds. 

ODM has made zoning a non-negotiable condition for any formal 2027 pact, insisting that its traditional strongholds in Nyanza, Western and the Coast be ring-fenced.

In contrast, UDA, led by its Secretary General Hassan Omar, has flatly rejected these demands, insisting that the ruling party is free to compete nationwide.

It is this deadlock that forced a high-level power truce meeting at State House on Thursday where President Ruto remained non-committal on the way forward forcing the Oburu Odinga-led ODM party back into a state of reassessment. 

Notably, ODM fears stem from the fact that a lack of zoning will hand their UDA counterparts an upper hand in the forthcoming elections, especially in the larger Luo Nyanza and Coast regions.

A perfect example is the Homa Bay gubernatorial seat, which is shaping up to be a contest between the incumbent Gladys Wanga and her estranged deputy, Oyugi Magwanga. Wanga is eyeing a second term as the county chief but her political arithmetic could run into headwinds should the Broad-Based partners not agree on a zoning strategy. 

This is because, according to sources, Magwanga is eying the Homa Bay gubernatorial seat come 2027, and he will be doing so on a UDA ticket. 

At the Coast, Mombasa Governor Abdullswamad Nassir faces a similar headache, given that the UDA Secretary-General has long expressed interest in the position. Hassan has also been vocal on the need for “friendly fire” between UDA and ODM. It is the fear of losing his seat to the UDA party that has seen Abdullswamad become an ardent champion for the zoning strategy.

“We (UDA) will have partnership talks with the ODM party…but a discussion that we will not entertain is that of handing Abdullswamad a ticket for him to run a second time as the Governor for Mombasa. He must go,” stated Hassan on April 8 this year.

And during the high-stakes consultative meeting on Thursday, ODM sought safeguards to “protect” the party from UDA’s grass roots expansion. A key resolution of the meeting was that the respective ODM and UDA chairpersons, Cecily Mbarire and Gladys Wanga, respectively, should continue structured and regular consultations to build consensus between the two parties.

Political strategist Javas Bigambo now avers that zoning undermines multi-party democracy by restricting parties’ freedom to field candidates across regions and violates Article 38 of the Constitution which guarantees political affiliation rights.

Free will

“Zoning is antithetical to democracy. Recall that we are a multi-party democracy. Multi-partism, therefore means that multiple parties must have the free will, the liberal will, the latitude to field a candidate wherever they want within the republic, and therefore the conceptualisation of zoning within our democratic practice is antithetical to our democratic tenets, and in fact, it’s another matter on the progress of our democracy. The moment we get to embrace and normalise zoning, we are slowly hitting our democracy, multi-party democracy,” stated Bigambo. 

He went on to note that the fear about a political party’s dominance should not trigger the push for zoning, because that will mean that political leaders are allocating parties to regions.