Pope's illness spreads doubt at Vatican

"Extraordinary services- masses, audiences, receptions of ambassadors and heads of state -- are in free fall," he said, with cardinals stepping in to lead some masses, but most events cancelled.

"It's a period of dormancy" that recalls "the end of Covid, when everything was running at a slow pace", he added, referring to the coronavirus pandemic.

Activity within the Roman Curia -- the government of the Holy See, which oversees the Church's global activities -- has not been as affected.

Though Francis's portrait hangs on the walls of the dicasteries, or ministries, the work is not directly dependent on the Argentine pope.

But the severity of his condition and his doctors' unwillingness to give a medical prognosis, make it difficult to make medium-term plans.

The pontiff has not appeared in public since February 14, when he was admitted to the Gemelli hospital in Rome with breathing difficulties, which developed into double pneumonia.

The window of the Apostolic Palace from which he recites the weekly Angelus prayer has remained closed for three Sundays in a row -- a first since his election as head of the world's nearly 1.4 billion Catholics in 2013.

Day by day

Instead, the days are marked by two medical bulletins issued by the Vatican in a rare effort at transparency. One in the morning describes how Francis's night went, followed by a more detailed evening update.

In the press room just off St Peter's Square, reporters used to tackling the subtitles of church law are fast becoming experts in medical terms instead.

The Vatican has been through periods like this before. Between May and August 1981, Pope John Paul II spent 77 days at the Gemelli after an assassination attempt.

But the longer it goes on, the more Francis's hospitalization -- already the longest of his papacy -- weighs on morale.

"There is a slowdown due to the fact that we do not know what tomorrow will bring. We live day-by-day, we do not take holidays," said a Vatican source who wished to remain anonymous.

"There are times when we are very afraid, others when we say to ourselves 'he is getting back on track'. It is a rollercoaster, and it is very stressful," the source said.

Crisis mode

Francis's health woes have long fuelled speculation he might one day resign and his critical illness has prompted some to prepare for the next conclave -- the meeting of cardinals that votes in a new pope.

But in an absolute monarchy, venturing to discuss the future while the pope is still alive is taboo.

"It would be considered inappropriate," an anonymous official from the Secretariat of State said. "The truth is that no one knows anything."

Italian Vatican expert Marco Politi agreed "it is a strange situation".

"This is not the time for the cardinals to meet in secret, to plan the future," he said, because it would undermine the "elegance of the great Catholic hierarchy".

And yet, as the faithful pray every evening in St Peter's Square, behind the scenes, preparations are inevitably being made for all possible eventualities.

"We are in crisis mode," said a diplomatic source from a European embassy to the Holy See, admitting that he had "updated the files for the conclave".

Francis has sent signals that he remains in charge, receiving aid and working from his hospital suite on the days he feels well enough.

But Ash Wednesday celebrations, marking the beginning of the religious season of Lent, will take place without him.

And no one knows whether he will be present at Easter, the biggest event in the Catholic calendar, in 40 days’ time.