Is Gen Z protest Ruto's Damascus moment? All eyes on the President

After the 1982 attempted coup against his government, President Daniel arap Moi became increasingly alert, and sharpened his political instincts as he purged politicians, senior security officers and those that were serving in the armed forces.

A similar moment was experienced by President Mwai Kibaki after the 2005 referendum. He reacted by removing sworn opponents from government following his loss at the Constitution change push in 2005 that was opposed by a faction of cabinet ministers led by Raila Odinga.

Political analysts now compare President William Ruto’s current situation to Moi’s after August 1, 1982 exactly 42 years ago this month, because the second president also used the opportunity to bring new blood into government to help in settling political scores as he entrenched himself in power.

Moi took office as a humble president promising to follow the footsteps of Jomo Kenyatta, but soon turned into a strongman as described the media after 1982.

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He came up with a new political survival style of leadership, viciously targeting real and perceived opponents, and crushing all opposition, including political opponents of his allies.

After the coup, Moi’s paranoia kept growing as he recruited hardline advisors, most of them old and illiterate regional kingpins like Kariuki Chotara, Sharif Nasir, Kihika Kimani and Mulu Mutisya to cushion his rule.

To silence the youth who for the last three months have complained about bad governance, unemployment, nepotism and high cost of education, Ruto also reacted by inviting Raila to nominate names that are in the process of joining his Cabinet, as he also stemmed the agitation that was seriously threatening his authority.

Former Nairobi Town Clerk Philip Kisia, who is also an ODM party member, thinks the new arrangement may calm things down by appealing to the older generation and ODM supporters in Nyanza region.

However, there is more uncertainty coming because President Ruto still has to deal with demands raised by restless youth who are supported by a majority of Kenyans.

“His victory is extremely temporary. He is still sitting on quicksand and he must therefore address the real issues raised by the protestors to regain some of the goodwill he has lost,” says Kisia.

Similar sentiments were echoed by Prof Peter Kagwanja of Africa Policy Institute who expects Ruto to use his relations with Raila to literally turn back the wheels of democracy, in a period he says will be painful but inevitable.

Unlike past presidents, Ruto has little wiggle room because he must stick to the rule of law as provided for in the Constitution 2010 that he swore to protect when he assumed office.

Prof Gitile Naituli of Multi Media University says although Ruto and his Cabinet Secretary of Interior may be thinking about crushing any form of dissent as was the case after 1982, it wouldn’t help because that was another political era.

Things have drastically changed from the one-party state, where the bill of rights was not as elaborate as the one in the current Constitution and people could be jailed indefinitely without being taken to court.

During President Moi’s era, police officers could also get away with murder, but they can now be held to account for extra judicial killings because of the more robust oversight system that is supported by a more enlightened and tech savvy population.

“President Ruto will fail miserably if he goes back to 1980s and 90s because solutions which applied to problems then cannot work now. He needs soft power and rapprochement to address problems which people are raising,” says Naituli.

He further argues that although Moi used dirty tricks to settle political scores, he also eventually bowed to pressure and repealed section 2A of the old Constitution that introduced multi-party politics which was used for further agitation to get the 2010 Constitution.

Priority should therefore be on the full implementation of the Constitution to create good governance and functional institutions that help to properly fight against corruption in institutions like the police, public service and the Judiciary.

That will resolve most of the issues raised by young people, especially lack of integrity, transparency and accountability in management of public affairs, that leads to corruption and inefficiencies in government.

Prof Naituli argues that the tribal alignment style of leadership will not work now because it failed when President Moi’s government turned the 1982 coup into an anti-Moi crusade which targeted the Kikuyu community.

“The rich Kikuyu were running the economy and so many simply boycotted paying taxes, leading to the collapse of infrastructure and the economy. That is why soft power is required because people apply different types of protests including civil disobedience,” says Naituli.

Kagwanja also recounted how Moi used the 1982 coup to realign all the security organs in the country by replacing people from the Akamba community who “were the macho tribe of the British” in the armed forces with the Kalenjin.

He says the process of cleaning up the security systems took place from the 1982 coup to 1986, but what is happening now is more about retaining power, and that is why there is also talk about the impending impeachment of deputy president Rigathi Gachagua.

Prof Kagwanja however argues that it is going to be too expensive impeaching Gachagua because the process will be about constitutionalism against political expediency within the UDA party system.

“If you are surprised that Gachagua is being impeached, then you are either a novice in local politics or you are just ignorant, because together with Moses Kuria they were considered as gladiators who were to be used to bring down Goliath (Uhuru Kenyatta) and so now that it is done they can be dispensed of. It is use and dump,” says Kagwanja.

Speaking about history repeating itself, Kagwanja said current developments remind him of what happened to Charles Njonjo in 1983, Mwai Kibaki and GG Kariuki because all were removed through political machinations unleashed through political neophytes created by Moi in the Mt Kenya region.

He says what is happening is really good history in the making, which he relishes because it reminds Kenyans how important it is to know their past and for those involved now to also know that what they are doing is not anything new.

Kisia says Ruto’s demeanor appears to have changed, but his intentions going forward cannot be clearly explained, especially when Raila will be out of the political scene and all the opposition neutered.

“He is a wounded lion which is dangerous because it can strike back at any time even without provocation and when people are least expecting it to attack because he can now use the super numbers he has in Parliament,” says Kisia.

But as suggested by other pundits, Kisia thinks the biggest challenge for the Kenya Kwanza government will be how to deal with a new breed of tribeless, fearless, leaderless, partyless group called the Gen Z and millennials.

He argues that while Moi used the tactics Ruto is using by getting his strong critics into government, giving out goodies and managing to silence them, he cannot do the same with the youth who are 75 per cent of the population.

“You cannot pinpoint one person who is providing leadership, because anyone seen to be talking to the government is quickly isolated in a whiff. The divide and rule tactic cannot work with these young people who don’t believe in tribe, regional politics and corruption,” says Kisia.

Prof Naituli also cautions that Ruto will not achieve much by rearranging the political deck using tribal cards and abandoning the nationalistic issue-based campaign he used to get power in 2022.

“The president is mistaken if he thinks that by bringing some Luos and Luhyas into government, then he can possibly win re-election; unfortunately, that will not work,” says Naituli.

He adds that Moi sidelined the Kikuyus and seriously divided the country, but politics being what it is, he foresees DP Gachagua being a presidential candidate in 2027 and making it very difficult for Ruto to get re-elected.

It will be even more complicated if he teams up with Kalonzo Musyoka and young politicians from across the political divide because there is a very high possibility of Mt Kenya region supporting the Wiper leader.

Naituli also thinks the political class has not woken up to the reality that times have changed because young people are telling them that 'my tribe' does not give them food and education.

“How can people working in his government make Sh150 million in 20 months when the country is sinking? Where did that money come from when Kenyans are closing businesses and laying off staff?

These are questions youth are asking and it shows there is something wrong with our country.