Kenya and rest of Africa lagging in green energy wave, UN warns

African nations, including Kenya, are significantly lagging in the global renewable energy revolution despite immense potential, risking being left behind as the world transitions to clean energy, a new United Nations (UN) report warned this week. 

The "Seizing the Moment of Opportunity" report, seen by Weekend Business, highlights a stark contrast in adoption rates since the 2015 Paris Agreement, raising concerns as countries prepare for the upcoming Conference of the Parties (COP) climate summit in Brazil.  

COP is an annual meeting where global leaders and policymakers convene to assess progress on climate change and negotiate further agreements. 

The report, a critical assessment of global energy shifts, reveals that Africa accounted for a mere 1.5 per cent of total global renewable capacity installed by the end of 2024.  

This is despite the continent being home to 20 per cent of the world's population and 85 per cent of the 565 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa who still lacked access to electricity in 2023.  

Achieving clean energy access – ensuring everyone has access to affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy, often from renewable sources – remains a distant goal for many. 

"Africa’s renewable resource potential is estimated to be ten times larger than its projected electricity demand in 2040 under a 1.5°C-aligned scenario," the report states, underscoring the vast, untapped opportunity.  

A 1.5°C-aligned scenario refers to pathways that limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a crucial target set to avert the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. 

Globally, the transition is accelerating, with solar photovoltaics (PV) – technology that converts sunlight directly into electricity using semiconductor materials – and onshore wind being "spectacularly" cheaper and faster options for new electricity generation.  

By 2024, utility-scale solar PV was 41 per cent cheaper and onshore wind 53 per cent cheaper than the least-cost new fossil fuel plant. Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have surged by 3,300 per cent between 2015 and 2024, with China, the European Union, and the United States accounting for 95 per cent of global EV sales in 2023.  

This rapid global acceleration starkly contrasts with Africa's minimal adoption rates, reflecting a broader disparity. 

Several factors contribute to Africa's lagging progress, including what the report terms "policy incoherence, clarity, and certainty."  

This means that governments often fail to align policies, incentives, and resources effectively to attract crucial investments.  

Persistent government subsidies for fossil fuels and insufficient carbon pricing mechanisms – a cost applied to carbon pollution to encourage emitters to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – further impede the shift to renewables.  

The report emphasises, "government action must steer markets by providing coherent and sustained long-term policy signals, regulatory frameworks, and market incentives." 

A critical hurdle is the immense financing gap for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) outside China, a category that includes a large portion of African nations. 

 "Less than one in every five dollars invested in clean energy has gone to emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) outside China since the Paris Agreement came into force in 2016," the report highlights.  

This massive shortfall is exacerbated by the "high cost of capital" due to perceived risks by investors in these regions.  

These risks include political instability, regulatory uncertainty, and currency fluctuations, making clean energy projects less attractive compared to those in developed markets. 

On a brighter note, the report acknowledges some commendable efforts in localised clean energy.  

In Kenya, for example, the decentralised renewable energy sector (including solar home systems and mini-grids) employed approximately 50,000 people in 2021.  

However, this is described as a "drop in the ocean" considering the immense potential for job creation in the sector.  

The report estimates that under a 1.5°C Scenario for the global energy transition, Africa could see 3.5 per cent more economy-wide jobs and a 25.4 per cent higher social welfare by 2050, demonstrating the significant economic benefits of accelerating the transition.  

This growth would contribute substantially to the continent's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific period. 

As nations prepare to gather for the latest Conference of the Parties (COP) in Brazil, the policies and commitments by Kenya and other African countries are expected to face intense scrutiny.  

Kenya has previously made ambitious pledges, including its goal of achieving 100 per cent clean energy by 2030.  

However, if the findings of this UN report are anything to go by, these commitments could be dismissed as "hot air" without demonstrable progress in overcoming the identified barriers.  

The report explicitly warns against continued fossil fuel lock-in, stating that "continued development of new fossil fuel projects is incompatible with 1.5°C pathways." 

The report also underscores significant opportunities for African countries to collaborate, particularly through South-South cooperation – the exchange of resources, technology, and knowledge between developing countries.  

China's Belt and Road Initiative – a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government to invest in nearly 150 countries and international organisations – for instance, accounted for 10-15 per cent of international project finance deals in Sub-Saharan Africa in recent years.  

This suggests a viable pathway for African nations to leverage external partnerships to bridge the investment and technology gaps, including with OECD countries (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), a group of mostly high-income economies.  

The UN report concludes that "this is the defining economic imperative and opportunity of this decade," urging African governments to translate ambitious pledges into concrete, coordinated actions to ensure they are not left behind in this critical global shift.