Reign of anarchy: Rapid slide into unrest raises fears of 2027 election violence

The creeping wave of perceived state-enabled lawlessness for political expediency is tightening its grip on Kenya.

Two years to the General Election, fears are mounting that what is unfolding is not random violence but a carefully calculated scheme to weaponise chaos, suppress dissent, pit Kenyans against each other, and potentially suppress turnout in strategic voting blocs.

Violence is being unleashed in broad daylight — businesses looted, health facilities attacked, civilians brutalised — with little to no resistance from security agencies mandated to protect the public. These events have sparked fears that state-sanctioned mayhem could spiral into full-blown anarchy if left unchecked.

Although the government claims it knows the top organisers of the violence, no arrests have been made. The response has largely been rhetorical.

“The leaders behind this violence, we are coming after you! You cannot sponsor violence in the Republic of Kenya and expect to go scot-free,” said President Ruto in Kilimani, Nairobi.

Parts of Nairobi and Central Kenya have borne the brunt of unrest, with patterns of targeted vandalism and looting masquerading as protest.

A moving video shows Annabel Wanjiku, owner of County Supermarket, tearfully recounting how she watched her Sh200 million investment vanish during the Saba Saba protests.

“Somebody has damaged my life, an investment of over 27 years. I am not even a politician and I am not interested. Why? Why?” she cried.
In Mwea town, Charles Njiru Kaburu — known as Mkombozi — watched in despair as his Nice Digital City complex was vandalised. He had spent over four decades building it.

Meru’s Maguna Supermarket and the Seven Eleven nightclub also suffered similar fates.

Local leaders have pointed fingers at the state, accusing it of abetting or enabling the chaos.

“We can clearly read between the lines… the government was either involved or abetted those crimes,” said Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro.
“The target is clearly the people of the Mt Kenya region. You have seen the businesses that have been attacked… What we are going through is actually state terror,” added Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni.

Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen recently revealed 42 deaths and nearly 600 injuries had been recorded during the protests — 496 of them police officers. But the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) places the toll at 57, citing 19 deaths on June 25 and 38 on June 7.

Murkomen added that around 1,500 people had been arrested and charged with offences including terrorism, murder, arson, robbery with violence, and malicious damage to property. Fifty suspects are under investigation by the Serious Crimes Unit, and 71 cases are with the Anti-Terrorism Police Unit.

Despite these figures, many doubt the government’s even-handedness.

Prof Peter Kagwanja, CEO of the Africa Policy Institute and a former government adviser, believes the country is already in a low-intensity civil war.

“What we are seeing is the early stages of a low-intensity civil war. These things only end in two ways: you return to normalcy or tip over into full-blown conflict.”

The Standard has confirmed the emergence of vigilante groups, especially in Central Kenya. In Kirinyaga’s Kagio town, residents recently seized two men who confessed to being Mungiki members planning an attack.

“Since these attacks began, we have been spending the night outside, keeping vigil. That’s how we nabbed them,” said a neighbour who requested anonymity.
In Juja, Kiambu County, businesspeople have formed Jumuiya ya Wafanyabiashara wa Juja to defend their properties.

“Never again shall we allow ourselves to be caught unawares by these goons. We have to protect our lives and property,” said John Maina, the group’s leader.

The Standard has also learnt that informal security groups are forming within Nairobi’s CBD. One insider said over 3,000 businesses were asked to contribute Sh1,000 each to hire security during demonstrations.

“There are about 12 business districts in the CBD, and each has mobilised funds. That’s how desperate things have become.”
Security analyst George Musamali has raised concerns over institutional failure, singling out the National Intelligence Service (NIS).

“We are at a bad place. The government looks clueless. The NIS is utterly exposed. Two years to the election — this is not where you want to be.”
Last week, President Ruto gave one of his most emotionally charged addresses yet:

“I’ve been silent for far too long. But enough is enough. This country will not be destroyed by a few people trying to change government through unconstitutional means.”
But his words rang hollow for many. No senior opposition figure has been arrested, despite allegations. Meanwhile, Tiaty MP William Kamket, who admitted ferrying goons to protests, has faced no consequences.

The National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC), mandated to prevent such division, has remained silent.

Former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria — a Ruto ally — continues to post inflammatory content. Though he claimed to have resigned as senior economic adviser to the President, many Kenyans view it as political theatre.

Kuria recently changed his X (formerly Twitter) profile picture to former President Mwai Kibaki, seemingly to signal a break from the current regime. But insiders claim he remains deeply involved.

“Mind games,” said a source. “He’s being repositioned for covert roles. We know the closed-door meetings he’s held — some in Kitengela.”

When contacted by The Standard, Kuria said his resignation was to “focus on personal interests”. While in office, Kuria often flirted with incitement. In one post, he suggested there would be no election in 2027, implying Ruto’s term could extend to 2032 — a clear constitutional breach.

In another post, he praised Thika residents for defending their businesses: “Well done Thika Town. Good organisation… Stand your guard. This is civil war.”

More disturbing still: “You put my people’s lives at risk again, I kill you. It’s that simple.”

“Mt Kenya Business Community… use your miuthis, machetes, guns etc to defend your investments.”

Belgut MP Nelson Koech has also made inflammatory comments without reprimand: “Mnatuambia eti one term, one term ya nani?... Tunapiga term mbili! Na kama jamii wasifikirie eti sisi ni waoga.”

Political analyst Dismas Mokua warns that unchecked violence and rhetoric could enable voter suppression in 2027.

“The probability exists that organised gangs could suppress voter turnout. That would compromise the elections and subvert the people’s will.”

The Inter-Religious Council of Kenya (IRCK) has issued a dire warning.

“Kenya is in a very sad and dangerous state. The fight by dominant political elite to consolidate power is tearing our nation apart with tension, violence and the killing of innocent citizens.”
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has decried double standards in law enforcement:

“This is a clear onslaught on the Kikuyu nation. In Mawego, arson suspects were charged with arson. In Kiambu, they were charged with terrorism.”

Observers warn the violent gangs could entrench themselves like those in Haiti, if not urgently dismantled.

“The earlier we nip this in the bud, the better,” says Mokua. “If gangs embed and arm themselves, the state will have failed in its core responsibility.”

One of the darkest incidents occurred during the Saba Saba protests, when goons stormed Kitengela Sub-County Hospital during a caesarean section. They vandalised equipment, assaulted staff, and torched the gate.

“This isn’t just violence. It’s psychological warfare,” said Musamali. “A scorched-earth tactic to break resistance.”

Prof Kagwanja says Kenyans must not let the country descend into chaos.

“Kenyans are resilient. They know they are vulnerable, but they’re trying to save their country. From ‘Ruto Must Go’ to ‘One Term’, the chants show people want to stay within constitutional bounds.”

A hashtag, #WeAreAllKikuyus, has gained traction online as Kenyans reject tribal division.

“We’ve even taken Kikuyu names to show unity,” said Alice Atieno, a social media promoter.

“They talk tough against the vandalism, but we know who is behind it.”
Meanwhile, questions around police independence persist. Although President Ruto claims to support it, his actions have raised doubts.

Last week,  he instructed police to shoot protesters and bring them to court — a directive viewed as undermining the Inspector General’s constitutional authority.

“Such orders can only come from the IG. When the President tells the police what to do, we’re slowly losing it,” says Musamali.