Police impunity raises 2027 polls violence risk, rights groups warn

The failure of successive governments to ensure accountability for police human rights violations has significantly heightened the risk of misconduct during the 2027 General Election.

Given Kenya’s history of election-related violence, the current trajectory is increasingly troubling. Families of victims, human rights activists, politicians, and security experts have raised alarm over the potential for widespread violence before, during, and especially if the outcome of the 2027 presidential election is disputed.

Analysts predict the 2027 poll will be hotly contested, with the incumbent President seeking re-election.

“Succession elections are typically straightforward, while incumbent elections have been marked by violence. The 2027 election will be no exception; it is likely to follow Murphy’s Law—anything that can go wrong, will go wrong,” says Prof. Gitile Naituli, a scholar of management and leadership.

Last year, human rights organisations reported a worrying trend of excessive police force, not only during the anti-Finance Bill 2024 protests but in earlier incidents as well. Multiple reports have pointed to a deeply entrenched culture of impunity within Kenya’s security agencies, citing persistent failures to ensure accountability both at the individual and institutional levels.

One report documented that State violence in 2024 resulted in 63 confirmed deaths, 63 abductions, 26 missing persons, over 600 injuries, and numerous cases of torture and illegal detention.

In a 2025 report, the Independent Policing Oversight Authority (Ipoa) revealed that 65 lives were lost—41 of them to police gunfire. The report, which focused on the June 25 and July 7 protests, further showed that 342 individuals sustained grievous injuries.

Over 90 people were shot, some in the chest, abdomen, and head. In contrast, the National Police Service claimed that only five people had been shot by officers, sparking accusations of deliberate under-reporting.

Human rights defenders argue that this under-reporting violates legal oversight obligations and reflects a systemic instinct to conceal rather than confront misconduct.

David Koros, President of the Institute of Human Rights (IHR), attributes the failure to address both past and present violations to the State’s systemic inability to hold security agencies accountable.

“For justice to prevail, rogue officers must be held accountable. In high-profile cases such as that of Albert Ojwang, targeting a few junior officers is not enough. The majority of violations go unpunished,” Koros states.

He notes that while the principle of command responsibility is enshrined in Kenya’s International Crimes Act (2011), it remains grossly underutilised. Koros also points to the lack of prosecution for those responsible for the 2017 post-election violence—during which police killed 104 people—as a harbinger of what could unfold in 2027.

“The continued failure to address police abuses during previous elections risks emboldening officers to repeat such conduct during the next polls,” says Koros, who is based in Geneva.

He contrasts the relative independence shown by the Judiciary—such as striking down unconstitutional laws and annulling a presidential election—with the subservience of police leadership.

“No Inspector General has ever publicly defied a questionable presidential directive. None has advanced a citizen-centred vision for policing. Instead, the default has been deference and complicity,” he observes.

Interference

Koros calls for urgent enforcement of police accountability mechanisms, including the full implementation of recommendations from the retired Chief Justice David Maraga-led task force, which proposed reforms of police operations.

“There’s also a pressing need to end political interference in policing before the next election,” he adds.

Masese Kemunche, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for Enhancing Democracy and Good Governance, blames the continued use of excessive force on the prevailing culture of impunity.

He highlights controversial statements such as the “shoot-to-kill” directive by Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen and President William Ruto’s “shoot-to-maim” remarks as inciting violence.

“These are statements that have emboldened police to turn against citizens,” Kemunche says.

Joseph Omondi, Executive Director of Midrift Hurinet, notes that political interference in police work has stifled efforts to promote accountability. He urges far-reaching police reforms and insists that IPOA must be empowered to handle brutality cases effectively.

“The current system is prone to manipulation, as the President appoints IPOA’s commissioners. The authority also lacks vital forensic tools, such as ballistics analysis, digital forensics, and crime scene reconstruction equipment, making it difficult to combat police cover-ups,” Omondi explains.

He further calls for a requirement that the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions (ODPP) respond to IPOA’s recommendations within 30 days.

“At the moment, cases can drag on for years. This delay has allowed rogue officers time to eliminate witnesses or tamper with evidence,” he warns.

Omondi also voices concern about Kenya heading into the 2027 elections without addressing police brutality.

“We have an extremely passionate generation of young people who demand good governance and accountability. If anything goes wrong after voting, the police may be ill-prepared to manage the situation lawfully,” he cautions.

Even when protests escalate, he says, police have a legal obligation to de-escalate without resorting to unlawful force.

“We must reject the narrative that Gen Z provoke police brutality. Laws exist to guide lawful responses to public order situations,” he says.

Omondi also criticises the government for slashing funds to key watchdogs like the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) and IPOA.

“KNCHR can barely meet salary obligations, let alone serve the public effectively. IPOA faces similar challenges,” he says.

Omondi calls for a stronger, more independent judiciary ahead of the 2027 polls to bolster public confidence in the electoral process.

He emphasises that meaningful police reform will remain elusive until national leaders prioritise institutional independence and justice over short-term political interests.