Experts link protest violence to 2027 vote

It has been argued that the massive violence and looting in anti-government protests is an organic eruption of anger against President William Ruto’s government, while others think it is a clash between angry, hungry, poor, unemployed youth and wealthy business people.

However, scholars, historians and political pundits strongly disagree, arguing that the well-organised, choreographed violence aims to create fear and animosity among voters.

It is argued that the current regime and its supporters are using the old playbook that was applied by the Kanu regime in the 1980s and 1990s at a level that has never been seen before.

There is growing fear that the violence is going to be escalated to more alarming levels as the country heads to the 2027 general election.

The difference, however, is that people are now more prepared for such eventualities than during the dark old days. As seen during the countywide protests last year, using such tactics can now easily boomerang into an uprising of unimaginable proportions.

Prof Peter Kagwanja of the Africa Policy Institute, in his book ‘Killing The Vote’, shows how violence has been weaponised to displace, intimidate or instil fear among voters along ethnic lines since Kenya’s return to multi-party politics in 1992 and 1997.

With Kenya’s return to multi-party politics in 1991, he writes that violence, variously chris­tened “ethnic clashes” or “land clashes”, erupted in many parts of the country.

Between 1991 and 1996, over 1,500 people died and almost 300,000 were displaced in the Rift Valley and the Western provinces. In the run-up to the 1997 elec­tions, fresh violence erupted on the Coast, killing over 100 people and displac­ing over 100,000, mostly pro-opposition up-country people.

By 1998, when violence broke out in the Rift Valley again, it had become a handy election tool and an instrument by the state to reassert its absolute domi­nance over every sector of the Kenyan society.

“Over the years, it has become evident that these clashes are sponsored by the government using surrogate agents to avoid responsibility,” says Kagwanja.

Terror was visited on political opponents and communities regarded to be opposition supporters by groups such as Jeshi la Mzee and ethnic based militias like Chinkororo, Amachuma and Sungu Sungu in Kisii, while Angola Musumbiji emerged in Western. Later, Mungiki and some smaller groups sprang up in Central, as more sprouted in the coast region.

Kagwanja now argues that the violence going on now is taking a similar pattern and could either be state-sponsored or supported by the state-linked agents to manipulate the 2027 results.

He states that not all the violence is essentially waged by the government, but the fact that it has allowed it to thrive is probably also allowing gangs and rival businesses to inflict terror upon each other.

“Winning or losing an election does not happen on the voting day. It takes months or even years to manipulate the vote, and as a result, you find violence, some of which you may not understand. But it has been used as a specific response to a certain environment in which voters will respond negatively,” says Kagwanja.

For example, tension can be localised in a place like Korogocho slums in Nairobi between a Kikuyu militia and maybe a Luo militia or another community and then the same is replicated in Kariobangi to make voting difficult.

The news and publicity around that violence fuels counter attacks and killings that lead to revenge and counter-revenge, creating bad blood between the two voting sides. And that is how Kanu allied politicians survived in the 1992 and 1997 elections. 

It is also highly unlikely that youth from Mt Kenya region can deliberately attack and loot businesses belonging to their kin, as happened in the latest protests.

That is why it becomes more probable that politicians allied to the government could be responsible for hiring the goons to cause tension and apprehension.

Kagwanja thinks the current violence is most likely linked to the politics of 2027 and those supporting President Ruto’s re-election agenda. They are now applying the divide and rule tactic.

It is also tied to the Mt Kenya region, an area that is now at the core of the rebellion against the government, and which ironically heavily voted for the president in 2022.

“It has happened before, and from what we are seeing now, you can predict waves of violence around the Coast region in Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu. Same to areas like Nakuru, the North Rift areas, some parts of Western, Kisii, Narok and South Rift areas that have cosmopolitan populations,” says Kagwanja.

The aim is to sow seeds of discord and make the voting environment very toxic and difficult through a new wave of terrifying attacks and violent evictions to ensure that people from some parts of the country don’t vote.

Poor youth

“It is what you can call pre-emptive violence. You want to ensure that voters do not turn out for the opponent, and that some candidates don’t get a good environment to campaign freely around the country. That is what you call killing the vote,” says Kagwanja.

Historian Prof Macharia Munene made a similar argument that the destruction of property in the Mt Kenya region and areas around Nairobi is to create an impression that one community is being targeted by their own.

He thinks the people sponsoring or hiring the goons are targeting specific business people to create animosity among communities, dispelling the notion that the violence is a result between the rich and the unemployed poor young people.

“If there was ever a division between the rich and the poor, then nothing has changed to warrant the destruction and looting. The divide has not widened because of these Gen Z protests. Most people can see through this political manipulation,” says Munene.

The reasoning that the violence is not about class or demographics is further strengthened by the goons appearing to be very friendly to the police and vice versa. Some are transported in vehicles to go and beat people, while police on standby are cheering.

But the public is not fooled. Some business owners are now organising to defend their property, even though it is the police who should protect lives and businesses. It appears officers are failing to act because they are colluding with the goons.

Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu has also urged the police to protect people’s property because that is their job.